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According to the latest PPP Poll.

The killing of Osama bin Laden has given Barack Obama a bounce in his approval ratings. But it doesn’t appear to have boosted his chances for reelection.

PPP this month finds Obama with a 49% approval rating to 43% of voters who disapprove. That’s a seven point improvement on the margin since last month’s national survey when slightly more voters (48%) gave him poor marks for his work than good ones (47%). Obama’s greatest improvement has come with Republicans (from 8% approval to 14%). He’s up with independents (from 44% to 49%) and with Democrats (from 81% to 83%) by smaller amounts.

More voters may like Obama for the moment, but there aren’t more planning to support him next year. Last month Obama led the Huckabee/Romney/Palin/Gingrich quartet by an average of 10.75 points. This month Obama leads those same four candidate by an average of…10.75 points. There’s been no improvement in his reelect numbers whatsoever since the bin Laden death and if there hasn’t been in the week after the killing it doesn’t seem likely there will be 18 months after the killing either. What Obama’s approval bounce appears to be is an increase in the percentage of people who say they like him, but still won’t vote for him. They appreciate him taking out bin Laden but that’s not going to outweigh everything he’s done that they don’t like over the course of the last 27 months.

Approval Vs. Disapproval:

• Mike Huckabee – 33% Vs. 41%
• Sarah Palin – 33% Vs. 60%
• Newt Gingrich – 29% Vs. 53%
• Mitt Romney – 32% Vs. 41%
• Donald Trump – 24% Vs. 65%
• Mitch Daniels – 14% Vs. 33% Vs. 53% (not sure)

Again, voters are not amored with the Republican Presidetial candidates and the one new face, Mitch Daniels is not really known.

We also tested Mitch Daniels on this poll and he trails 48-34 but what might be most interesting is his favorability numbers with Republicans. Only 23% express a favorable opinion of him to 25% with an unfavorable one. I think a fair amount of that ‘unfavorable’ rating can be explained by voters who rate just about any politician they’ve never heard of negatively- which I think is about 10% of the population- but those are not impressive numbers by any stretch of the imagination. Beltway journalists are clearly a lot more enamored with Daniels than actual GOP voters are.

General Election Head to Head:

• Obama – 49% Vs. Huckabee – 42%
• Obama – 54% Vs. Palin – 37%
• Obama – 52% Vs. Gingrich – 38%
• Obama – 47% Vs. Romney – 42%

Again, this is a national poll and the election contest is in key battleground sates. But, it is surprising that Obama did not receive more of a bounce with the killing of Osama Bin Laden. This event will fade with time.

What the GOP nominess should hope is that their favorability improves.

The entire poll is here.

PPP surveyed 814 American voters from May 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political 

organization.  PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.  PPP  is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times

found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

• President Barack Obama – 51% vs. 44%

Democrats are united for the President.

The biggest key for him is that he has the Democratic base completely behind him- 94% approve to only 4% who disapprove. Virginia still has a lot of white conservative Democrats, particularly in certain parts of the state, so for Obama to have almost unanimous approval within his party is very impressive. He even has more Republicans (albeit a paltry 7%) who approve of him than there are Democrats (4%) who disapprove. That’s not something we’re seeing in our polling very often right now. Independents narrowly give him good marks, 48/46, as well.

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

• Mike Huckabee – 37% Vs. 42%
• Mitt Romney – 35% Vs. 43%
• Newt Gingrich – 26% Vs. 54%
• Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 62%
• Donald Trump – 22% vs. 69%

General Election Head to Head:

• Obama – 52% Vs Huckabee – 43%
• Obama – 51% Vs. Romney – 40%
• Obama – 54% Vs. Gingrich – 37%
• Obama – 55% Vs. Palin – 40%
• Obama – 54% Vs. Trump – 32%

Virginia is a key battleground sate that the GOP needs to flip in 2012. Compare the results of the most recent Washington Post poll of Virginia.

Similar, no?

In Virginia, the GOP Presidential candidate field is not very popular and well received. If the Republicans want to take back Virginia’s Electoral College votes, they will need to run candidates other than the current field. Calling on Mitch Daniels and/or Chris Christie.

Even if Obama was unpopular in Virginia he’d still be in a decent position to win the state again because the GOP contenders are so weak there. Take those unpopular Republicans and combine them with a decently popular Obama and you have a very difficult battle for the GOP to get Virginia back. And it’s hard to imagine the party winning back the White House without Virginia- because of that fact and because of Obama’s relative strength there, this is looking to me like the most important state in the Presidential race next year.

Exactly and why Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie will jump into the race.

The entire poll is here.

According to the latest Washington Post poll.

Presidential Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

• Barack Obama – 57% Vs. 40% (49% vs. 46%)

General Election Head to Head:

• Obama – 51% vs. Romney – 44% (48% Vs. 46%)
• Obama – 53% Vs. Huckabee – 44% (50% Vs. 46%)
• Obama – 55% Vs. Pawlenty – 35% (51% Vs. 38%)
• Obama – 61% Vs. Trump – 30% (54% Vs. 35%)
• Obama – 61% Vs. Palin – 30% (55% Vs. 36%)

Virginia is a key battleground state that the Republican nominee will need to deny President Barack Obama a second term. Undoubtedly, President Obama has received a bounce from the Osama bin Ladin operation and this is somewhat reflected in this poll.

However, the GOP will either have to nominate someone else or hope that Romney and/or Huckabee will be able to persuade Virginia voters.

Survey of 1,180 adults in Virginia was conducted April 28 – May 4, 2011; including 677 interviews before the killing of Osama bin Laden, with 503 afterward. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Results from interviews conducted before the announcement of bin Laden’s death are in parentheses.

According to the latest ARG Poll.

This is the third poll in less than a month that has been especially favorable for Mitt Romney. Here is the other poll.

With Romney having a virtual lock on New Hampshire and Nevada, and him polling well in Pennsylvania and Arizona is Romney setting himslef up as the front runner?

Perhaps.

And, what affect will this Florida polling have on a possible Mitch Daniels or even Mike Hucakbee’s candidacy?

A good day for Mitt Romney.

According to the latest PPP Polls.

Donald Trump Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

• Nevada: 32% Vs. 59% (-27)
• North Carolina: 27% Vs. 62% (-35)
• Iowa: 27% Vs. 61% (-34)
• New Hampshire: 27% Vs. 60% (-33)

Even though President Obama released his long form birth certificate today and Donald Trump claimed some victory so to speak, the Donald does not poll well with Republican or independent voters.

Republicans don’t really like him that much. In New Hampshire his favorability with them is 46/40, in Iowa it’s 41/40, in North Carolina it’s 45/42, and in Nevada it’s 51/37. He’s doing well in primary polls because the GOP voters who do like him are pretty inclined to name him as their top Presidential choice. That’s different from say a Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney who are mostly well liked even by Republicans for whom they are not the first choice for the nomination. With Trump there is not as much of that middle ground- you either want him as the nominee or you dislike him. Those kinds of numbers will maybe give you a long shot chance at the nomination but they don’t make you a viable contender in November.

Trump is completely toxic to independent voters. His favorability with them in Nevada is 35/57, in Iowa it’s 29/58, in New Hampshire it’s 23/63, and in North Carolina it’s 28/61. His recent antics have ingratiated him to a meaningful chunk of the far right Republican base, but he’s completely turned off the folks in the center whose votes often determine who comes out on top in Presidential contests.

So, it has been a fun show Donald for a few weeks, but it is time to say good bye. With these numbers, Trump will NOT be a candidate for President.

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

President Barack Obama – 49% Vs.48%

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

• Newt Gingrich –  31% Vs. 50%
• Mike Huckabee – 42% Vs. 37%
• Sarah Palin –  33% Vs. 60%
• Mitt Romney – 31% Vs. 44%
• Donald Trump – 27% Vs. 62%

The General Election:

• Obama – 48% Vs. Huckabee – 47%
• Obama – 47% Vs. Romney 44%
• Obama – 49% Vs. Gingrich – 45%
• Obama – 52% Vs. Palin – 40%
• Obama – 51% Vs. Trump – 39%

PPP polling seems to think that the President is holding his own in North Carolina. But, in this point in the race for 2012, Obama is not looking particularly strong in a key battleground state that the GOP nominee must win.

Barack Obama’s poll numbers nationwide aren’t looking very good right now but one place where he’s holding up pretty well is North Carolina. His approval rating there this month is 49%, with 48% of voters disapproving. Those numbers basically mirror the results of the 2008 election in the state, pretty good given that in our national polling right now his approval spread is running 13 points behind his margin of victory against John McCain.

There are two data points key to Obama’s continued decent standing in North Carolina. In most places Obama has maintained his popularity with minorities but seen a significant decline in his popularity with white voters. Here though his 37% approval rating with whites matches the percentage of the vote we found him winning in 2008 and that combined with his 87% standing with black voters puts him on slightly positive ground overall. The other key thing for Obama is that he’s at 50/44 with independents here, basically matching his 2008 victory margin over McCain in the state with those voters and running counter to his 37/54 approval breakdown with them nationally.

Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are both withn the margin of error (4.4%) in the polls with an uncumbent President. Huckabee has NOT even made overtures to run for the office. This isn’t saying much about Obama’s strength.

The PPP polling folks, a Democratic pollster, are having some delusions of grandeur here. Obama is in trouble.

The entire poll is here.