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According to the latest PPP Poll.

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

• Mike Huckabee – 73% Vs. 10%
• Sarah Palin – 67% Vs. 18%
• Newt Gingrich – 57% Vs. 20%
• Mitt Romney – 51% Vs. 23%
• Donald Trump – 47% Vs. 33%

The GOP Primary:

• Huckabee – 24%
• Trump – 24%
• Palin – 13%
• Romney – 11%
• Gingrich – 9%
• Pawlenty – 4%
• Bachmann – 3%
• Paul – 3%

As the GOP field narrows in the next 30 days, we will see how the numbers start to move. As Karl Rove said yesterday, a GOP candidate cannot wait more than another 30-60 days to begin raising sufficient money to run their campaign. And, major GOP donors are waiting on the sidelines, waiting for the field to firm up.

I agree with Dick and disagree as well.

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels should he decide to run (watch his D.C. speech next week, May 4th at the American Enterprise Institute), will give Mitt Romney fits in the right of center and moderate wing of the GOP. Most of the big GOP donors will pull any of their money away from a late-starting race of Mike Huckabee.

The race will be between Daniels, Huckabee and Romney.

If Daniels runs Donald Trump will not be a factor in the race. If he does not, look for Huckabee to jump in with the Tea Party and battle Trump and Romney.

Everyone else at this point, including Sarah Palin, is noise.

With regards to President Obama, the economy has not dramatically improved and unless gasoline prices drop precipitously, he is looking like a failed, one term President.

According to the latest Winthrop University, South Carolina Poll.

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

• Mike Huckabee – 59% Vs. 11.1%
• Mitt Romney – 53.6% Vs. 16.5%
• Sarah Palin – 47.9% Vs. 32.3%
• Newt Gingrich – 45.4% Vs. 23.1%

The GOP Primary:

• Mike Huckabee – 17.8%
• Mitt Romney – 16.1%
• Donald Trump – 9.9%
• Sarah Palin – 4.1%
• Newt Gingrich – 4.9%

Who do you think will be the eventual nominee?

• Mitt Romney – 21.4%
• Mike Huckabee – 8.3%
• Donald Trump – 7.3%
• Newt Gingrich – 4.9%
• Sarah Palin – 4.1%

This is a good poll for Mitt Romney and demonstrates he continues to be competitive in South Carolina. Keeping in mind the GOP primary calendar and assuming Mike Huckabee runs, Mitt would be coming off a loss to Huckabee in Iowa and a win in New Hampshire. Romney would have the edge in Nevada due to his Mormon influence in neighboring Utah, which leaves South Carolina as a real test of his strength.

Now, should Mitch Daniels decide to run and splits the vote, Mike Huckabee would then likely be the favorite in South Carolina.

Over the next three weeks, the GOP field will be solidifying and then the polls will get serious.

According to the latest ARG Poll.

• Mike Huckabee – 20%
• Mitt Romney – 18%
• Newt Gingrich – 9%
• Donald Trump – 13%
• Sarah Palin – 10%
• Michele Bachmann – 5%

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in South Carolina (453 Republicans, 144 independents, and 3 Democrats).

Sample Dates: April 18-23, 2011

Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

So, the race is on in South Carolina, should Mike Huckabee decide to run for the Presidency.

Exit question: Where will Huck’s votes go if he decides NOT to run? How about Sarah Palins?

According to the latest ARG Poll.

The poll was conducted April 16 – 21 with 600 likely Republican primary voters. The margin of error is 4%.

• Mitt Romney – 32%
• Donald Trump – 17%
• Newt Gingrich – 8%
• Rudy Giuliani – 8%
• Mike Huckabee – 8%

With Mike Huckabee’s lead in Iowa, and Mitt Romney’s lead in New Hampshire, it looks like a stalemate until the Nevada caucuses, South Carolina and Florida primary elections. If no other candidates step forward soon, would the GOP consider a tag team of Romney and Huckabee?

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

• President Barack Obama – 46% Vs. 48%

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

• Mitt Romney – 36% Vs. 44%
• Mike Huckabee – 41% Vs. 43%
• Newt Gingrich – 24% Vs. 56%
• Sarah Palin – 29% Vs. 63%

General Election Head to Head:

• Obama – 45% Vs. Romney 41%
• Obama – 45% Vs. Huckabee 45%
• Obama – 53% Vs. Palin – 36%
• Obama – 51% Vs. Trump – 35%
• Obama – 50% Vs. Gingrich – 39%
• Obama – 43% Vs. Romney – 27% Vs. Trump – 21% (as an independent)

Iowa like Larry Sabato mentioned this morning may indeed be in play for race for 2012.

The entire PPP Poll is here.

When PPP last polled Iowa in early January, President Obama was enjoying a bit of a surge in popularity following the lame-duck session of Congress. He has since slipped, and his small leads over his main prospective challengers have accordingly closed. Half of Iowans approved of the president’s job performance three months ago, and 43% disapproved. But he is now slightly underwater, as nationwide, with only 46% approving and 48% disapproving. The slippage has come across the board. In January, 13% of Republicans approved and only 8% of Democrats disapproved, but those numbers are now reversed, while independents have moved from 49-40 to 41-50.

The good news is that the Republicans have all gotten slightly less popular as well, and none is better liked than the president. But re-election bids are more a mandate on the incumbent than the challenger, and a slightly unpopular incumbent against a slightly unpopular challenger usually produces a tie.

Looks to me that Iowa voters will be comfortable with either Mike Huckabee who won the 2008 Iowa GOP caucuses and leads in the polls there for 2012 or Mitt Romney who has been showing strength in New Hampshire and Florida. It also looks like Iowa may be a key battleground state which is surprising to me.

Does the Iowa trend mean that other battleground fronts may open for President Obama? Maybe like Pennsylvania and New Mexico?

Also, an exit question to ponder: Might Romney and Huckabee make an early deal and be the 2012 ticket? It has happened before, thinking Reagan – Bush.

Stay tuned…..