• Pinboard Links,  The Afternoon Flap

    The Afternoon Flap: November 3, 2011

    These are my links for November 3rd PM.

    • Cain Catches Flak, but Will It Shoot Down His Candidacy?– Washington was all a-Twitter (literally) Monday over Politico’s story about the sexual-harassment charges against Herman Cain — and about Cain’s serial self-contradictions.Faithful Fox News viewers saw him in the afternoon saying he didn’t know the terms of a settlement reached with the complainants and then saw him tell Greta Van Susteren in the 10 p.m. hour that he did.

      The Politico story, quoting no named sources, described Cain’s alleged misconduct as “conversations allegedly filled with innuendo or personal questions of a sexually suggestive nature” and “physical gestures that were not overtly sexual.”

    • Ron Paul Fever at Zuccotti Park– I hear many names bandied about in Zuccotti Park, and not just at the fringes. Among the most popular are Karl Marx, Hugo Chávez, Michael Moore, Paul Ehrlich, and Dennis Kucinich. But today I heard a less predictable one spoken more widely: Ron Paul.There are three key reasons for this, I think. The first is a good old marriage of convenience, the same sort of unholy alliance as arose in the early 20th century when Baptists and bootleggers came together to argue for the prohibition of alcohol in America. You see, Ron Paul is angry, too, and he wants to “restore” America to its old ways. The majority of Paul’s policy positions may be radically different, but much of his rhetoric is in line with Occupy Wall Street’s, particularly his anti-Hamiltonian conviction that the banks have callously denatured the United States. For many, this alone is enough to make him an ally.

      The protesters I spoke to today were predominantly appalled when I told them of Paul’s attitude towards Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the federal government in general, not to mention of his deregulatory zeal and staunch pro-life commitment. But, ultimately, this didn’t matter as much as the fact that he wants “change,” too. Revolution first, details later — we’ll just leave the specifics to Working Group 48.

    • Who Dropped the Dime on Cain? – Fred Thompson– In a case of an untimely death, the first thing the cops do when they arrive at the home of the deceased is to try to determine whether the death was the result of a self-inflicted wound and, if it wasn’t, whether a member of the family did it. Statistics show that these are good places to start looking. If the recent events surrounding sexual-harassment allegations against Herman Cain sink his campaign, the same postmortem may be appropriate.First, Cain’s self-inflicted wounds. When the allegations became public, he started defending himself with an unloaded gun. Even an admirably unconventional campaign cannot defy certain principles. One would be never to eat at a place with an “Eats” sign in the window. Another is that when it hits the fan, you should get your recollection and your facts as straight as you can before you start talking. You can’t outwit the media at their own game if you don’t know the game they’re playing. Now it’s not just about whether he was overly friendly with Miss Molly at the Fourth of July picnic — it’s also about catching him in inconsistencies.
    • If Cain sinks, will Gingrich benefit? – In the early summer of 2007, an over-the-hill John McCain, his campaign in shambles, was given up for dead in his race for the Republican presidential nomination. He wouldn’t give up, though, and by sheer force of will managed to grab his party’s spot on the ticket — and lead it to a crushing defeat.
      In the early summer of 2011, an over-the-hill Newt Gingrich, his campaign in shambles, was given up for dead in his race for the Republican presidential nomination. He wouldn’t give up, though, and by sheer force of will has managed to talk himself back into contention for his party’s spot on the ticket. But do Republican voters really want to be led to another crushing defeat?
      That, alas, is almost sure to happen if Gingrich is the Republican standard bearer. Like McCain, he’s quite old by any non-Reagan presidential standards (indeed, if inaugurated he would be just four months younger than Reagan was on his Inauguration Day). Like McCain, he has a nasty temper (although, to be fair, it’s nowhere near as nasty as McCain’s). Like McCain, he has a sordid history with, uh, relationships, although his is more well known than McCain’s and does not enjoy the excuse of a “pass” to re-sow wild oats due to brutal years in captivity.Short answer is: MAYBE.
    • Poll Watch: Voters Evenly Divided As to Whether Allegations Against Cain Are Serious and True– Two-thirds of America’s voters recognize that Herman Cain is the Republican candidate who has been accused of sexual harassment. Voters are evenly divided about the allegations and most Republicans believe the public airing of the charges suggest Cain is considered a serious threat to win the nomination.The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 39% believe the allegations against Cain are at least somewhat likely to be serious and true.  Thirty-eight percent (38%) disagree and 23% are not sure. Those figures include 17% who believe it’s Very Likely and 11% who say Not at All Likely.
    • The Generation Gap and the 2012 Election– In the last four national elections, generational differences have mattered more than they have in decades. According to the exit polls, younger people have voted substantially more Democratic than other age groups in each election since 2004, while older voters have cast more ballots for Republican candidates in each election since 2006.The latest national polls suggest this pattern may well continue in 2012. Millennial generation voters are inclined to back Barack Obama for reelection by a wide margin in a matchup against Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate who has run the strongest against Obama in many polls. By contrast, Silent generation voters are solidly behind Romney.

      In between the youngest and the oldest voters are the Baby Boom generation and Generation X. Both groups are less supportive of Obama than they were in 2008 and are now on the fence with respect to a second term for the president.

    • Gallup Poll Watch: U.S. Unemployment Improves to 8.4% | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Gallup Poll Watch: U.S. Unemployment Improves to 8.4% #tcot #catcot
    • The Blame Game on Herman Cain – NYTimes.com – The Blame Game on Herman Cain
    • Flap’s Dentistry Blog: It Is Running at Night Season: 7 Tips for Safety – It Is Running at Night Season: 7 Tips for Safety
    • President 2012: Mitt Romney Welcomes Rick Perry to California with New Attack Ad » Flap’s California Blog – President 2012: Mitt Romney Welcomes Rick Perry to California with New Attack Ad
    • Chantix IS Unsuitable for First-Line Smoking Cessation | Smiles For A Lifetime – Temporary (Locum Tenens) Dentistry – Chantix IS Unsuitable for First-Line Smoking Cessation
    • Flap’s Dentistry Blog: The Morning Drill: November 3, 2011 – The Morning Drill: November 3, 2011
    • House Issues Subpoenas to White House Regarding Bankrupt Solyndra | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – House Issues Subpoenas to White House Regarding Bankrupt Solyndra #tcot #catcot
    • Numbers USA Sponsors Twitter Campaign to Pass H.R. 2885 and E-Verify | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Numbers USA Sponsors Twitter Campaign to Pass H.R. 2885 and E-Verify #tcot #catcot
    • Charlie Hebdo Reprints Mohammad Cartoon Defending the Freedom to Poke Fun | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Charlie Hebdo Reprints Mohammad Cartoon Defending the Freedom to Poke Fun #tcot #catcot
    • The Morning Flap: November 3, 2011 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – The Morning Flap: November 3, 2011 #tcot #catcot
  • Census,  Election 2012

    President 2012: The First Map of Battleground States Updated

    election2010map Presidential Election 2012: The First 2012 Map of Battleground States
    Back in November, I posted a first map of 2012 Presidential battleground states. Of course, this was before the census and a concomitant reapportionment.

    Republican-leaning states will gain at least a half dozen House seats thanks to the 2010 census, which found the nations population growing more slowly than in past decades but still shifting to the South and West.

    The Census Bureau announced Tuesday that the nation’s population on April 1 was 308,745,538, up from 281.4 million a decade ago. The growth rate for the past decade was 9.7 percent, the lowest since the Great Depression. The nation’s population grew by 13.2 percent from 1990 to 2000.

    Michigan was the only state to lose population during the past decade. Nevada, with a 35 percent increase, was the fastest-growing state.

    The new numbers are a boon for Republicans, with Texas leading the way among GOP-leaning states that will gain House seats, mostly at the Rust Belts expense. Following each once-a-decade census, the nation must reapportion the House’s 435 districts to make them roughly equal in population, with each state getting at least one seat.

    That triggers an often contentious and partisan process in many states, which will draw new congressional district lines that can help or hurt either party.

    In all, the census figures show a shift affecting 18 states taking effect when the 113th Congress takes office in 2013.

    Texas will gain four new House seats, and Florida will gain two. Gaining one each are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington.

    Now, we have some additional polling/party identification information which should also give us a clue as to the identity of 2012 Presidential KEY battleground states:

    Watching the party identification polling will give us the trend toward or away from the incumbent Democratic President. Remembering Obama/Biden won 365 electoral votes Vs. McCain/Palin 173.

    Looking at the states that lost Electoral Votes:

    7hcefomukkzriiembmfzw95 2012 GOP Bonanza: All 10 States Losing Congressional Seats Tilt Democratic

    And, the states that gained Electoral Votes:

    ml1evzsnyusz6txglpmfia9 2012 GOP Bonanza: All 10 States Losing Congressional Seats Tilt Democratic

    Before, I identified the key battleground states (pre-census release):

    • Ohio – 20 (electoral votes): -2 after reapportionment
    • Virginia – 13
    • Colorado – 9
    • Florida -27: +2 after reapportionment
    • Nevada – 5: +1 after reapportionment
    • Wisconsin -10
    • New Hampshire – 4
    • Indiana – 11
    • North Carolina – 15

    And, I think, at least for now, pending any dramatic change in party identification I will stay with these states.

    The question for the GOP will be: Who will be the best candidate in these nine states to match up against President Barack Obama?

  • Election 2012

    Presidential Election 2012: The First 2012 Map of Battleground States



    Election 2010 Map as of today from electoral-vote.org


    The first pundit map is out for the 2102 Presidential race.

    As we begin turning our attention to the 2012 presidential contest, we debut our initial presidential battleground map. Note: This is based on where we believe things will be a year from now, with the GOP candidates headed into home stretch in IA. It essentially combines what we know from ’04, ’06, ’08 and ’10, and factors it ALL in. Here’s another way to look at this: The lean Dem states are winnable by a Republican if things break, say, 53%-47% nationally for the nominee. And the lean GOP states are winnable by a Democrat if things break, well, 53%-47% nationally for the president. And you can guarantee BOTH parties will play in every lean and toss-up state so the BIG battleground for 2012 begins with 17 states. We fully expect a David Plouffe to attempt to argue GA and AZ should be in lean. And we expect a GOP strategist to argue they can put one EV in ME and, say, OR in play. But here you go…

    Solid Dem: DE, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT
    Likely Dem: CA, CT, IL, ME, WA, OR
    Lean Dem: IA, MI, MN, NJ, PA
    Toss-up: CO, FL, NV, NH, NM, OH, VA, WI
    Lean GOP: MO, MT, NE (one EV), NC,
    Likely GOP: AL, AR, AZ, GA, IN, LA, MS, NE (four EVs), ND, SC, SD, TX
    DC Solid GOP: AK, ID, KS, KY, OK, TN, UT, WV, WY

    Of course, this depends entirely on the economy and it will be interesting to revisit this in about a year. But, as of today, I would say the key battleground states will be:

    • Ohio – 20 (electoral votes)
    • Virginia – 13
    • Colorado – 9
    • Florida -27
    • Nevada – 5
    • Wisconsin -10
    • New Hampshire – 4
    • Indiana – 11
    • North Carolina – 15

    Remembering Obama/Biden won 365 electoral votes Vs. McCain/Palin 173. The battleground states above would have 114 electoral votes in play. A sufficient number for a GOP contender to flip and win the Presidency.

    The race for 2012 has already started.

    Stay tuned……

  • Election 2012

    Election 2012: GOP U.S. Senate Prospects Look Bright

    Fox News interactive map with races in play Congressional Districts Overlaid with Districts that voted for President Obama in 2008

    Looking at the map above, Republicans although unsuccessful in taking the majority of Senate seats on tuesday show increasingly bright prospects for the 2012 election cycle.

    Welcome to the 2012 election cycle. The three most vulnerable Democratic senators in 2012 are probably Bill Nelson of Florida, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and Jon Tester of Montana. Republicans also may target Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Kent Conrad of North Dakota, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Bob Casey Jr. of Pennsylvania, Jim Webb of Virginia, Maria Cantwell of Washington, and Herb Kohl of Wisconsin. Retirement watch: Dianne Feinstein of California (age in 2012: 79), Daniel Akaka of Hawaii (88), Nelson of Nebraska (71), and Kohl (77).

    Nebraska, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, North Dakota, Montana, Michigan: Those are all anti-Obama/Republican states.

    Also, Republican Dick Lugar of Indiana will be 80 years old and may retire – calling GOP Rep. Mike Pence?

    The above mentioned Democratic Senators will be under intense scrutiny by The Tea Party and will be targeted for replacement. Early recruitment of the best conservative candidates is essential for success and should begin today.

    But, conservative propsects to remold the Senate majority and replace Democrat Senator Harry Reid as leader look promising.