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The Electoral College: State of the Presidential Race
The above graphic is how the Presidential race will turn out in the Electoral College on November the 6th. I have Mitt Romney defeating President Obama 271 Electoral Votes vs. 261 Electoral Votes.
Most notable recent changes I have made have been the loss of Ohio to the President and the pick up of Colorado for Romney.
Here is my Electoral College map I made after Mitt Romney chose Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin for his Vice President running mate.
To say the least, the race is tight.
Mitt Romney continues to make a play for Nevada and I understand as of yesterday, he made a very large television ad buy in Northern Nevada – the Reno market.
Recent polling by Rasmussen and Gallup have Ohio all tied up – well within the margins of error. Ohio could go either way. I think Obama now needs Ohio more than Romney in order to win, which goes against the maxim that GOP Presidential wins go through Ohio.
Stay tuned as more polls roll in throughout the next few days.
However, I think, my first map with a 271 Electoral College Vote win for Romney will probably be the end result.
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Poll Watch: Romney Takes the Lead in the Electoral College for First Time
For the first time, Real Clear Politics and their poll averages has Mitt Romney beating President Obama in the Electoral College.
The map is similar to my map from several months ago.
This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com
But, what is interesting is that a number of states that many have thought in the Team Obama camp, may be in play – most notably Pennsylvania and Michigan.
The battleground state polls after the Monday night debate, should deliver a clearer picture of what will happen on November 6th.
By the way, the magic number of Electoral College votes to win is 270.
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Does Paul Ryan Help Mitt Romney in the Electoral College?
This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com
Why, yes, the selection of Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney’s Vice Presidential running mate might just very well help the GOP recapture the White House.
The Electoral College map above illustrates why – namely, Wisconsin and Iowa are moved to red, while Nevada moves to blue from my previous prognostication map which is below.
Mitt Romney has decided to employ an upper-Midwestern Electoral College vote strategy as opposed to a Hispanic-voter Western states Electoral College strategy. In other words, the key battleground states of Nevada and Colorado will be de-emphasized or even written off (although having just returned from Las Vegas a few days ago, the Romney campaign and Crossroads GPS television ads are omni-present and frequent).
Most political pundits agree that Paul Ryan will help Romney in Wisconsin. With the failed recall of Wisconsin Republican Governor Scott Walker, Wisconsin might be ripe for a flip from Obama to Romney (polling there shows Romney/Ryan tied with Obama). And, who better to team up with Romney than a “Wisconsin favorite son” in Paul Ryan. Iowa is right next door to Wisconsin and will also be in play.
Now, this punditry assumes that other key battleground states like Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Florida will also flip from Obama to Romney/Ryan. But, with the addition of Iowa and Wisconsin, Romney/Ryan could afford to lose Virginia and still reach the 270 Electoral College votes required for victory.
The key battleground states are taking shape – add Iowa and Wisconsin to the mix.
Tonight, the Electoral College numbers are looking a whole lot better for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.
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President 2012: Larry Sabato Lays Out the Electoral College Battle for the White House
From Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Larry Sabato lays out the Electoral College analysis for the race for the Presidency in 2012.The London Olympics isn’t the only venue for world-class sport this year. Political gold is waiting to be won in November, and the only way to grab the top U.S.A. medal is to master Electoral College math. It is both deceptively easy and maddeningly complex. A candidate has to accumulate 270 votes in a tiny universe of 538, but those 538 will be generated by 130 million votes cast in 51 separate entities. A game that looks like checkers is really multi-dimensional chess.
Still, the deep polarization of party politics has simplified the process somewhat. Remarkably, about 40 states — and maybe more — have almost no chance of flipping from one party to the other in the 2012 Electoral College. If President Obama gets his way, the electoral map will look very close to the way it did four years ago; on the other hand, Mitt Romney needs to flip a relative handful of states to take up residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Obama’s 2008 performance was close to the high-water mark for a modern Democrat: 365 electoral votes (359 under the new 2010 census apportionment). Obama did the seemingly impossible by very narrowly pulling two long-time Republican states, Indiana and North Carolina, to his column and even winning an electoral vote in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, while narrowly losing Missouri and Montana. Those latter two states are widely believed to have moved out of his reach for 2012.
It is a little-known Electoral College tidbit that a president reelected to a second term has always added a state to his coalition that he did not win during his first successful run. Sometimes, in the early days of the Republic, it was a state that didn’t exist during a president’s first bid. But it appears that Obama, if reelected, will break this trend. The only state John McCain won that Obama appears to have a chance of flipping is Arizona, but that is a long shot that would require a massive turnout effort by the Obama campaign among Hispanic voters.
To compare 2012 politics to war for a moment, the current electoral map is akin to World War I’s Western Front trench warfare: Massive amounts of manpower and resources will be needed to move the frontlines even a smidgen. And the less the lines move, the better it is for Obama.
Read all of the post, which is in line with my previous analysis. Watch the video embedded below:
It looks to me that the battle will be waged in even fewer states – Ohio, Virginia, Nevada and Florida. Voters in those states should feel the brunt of all of the intense ad campaigns.
In any case, here is my prediction of how the Electoral College will turn out in November: Romney 275 Vs. Obama 263:
This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com
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President 2012: New Battleground Electoral College Map
First Read at MSNBC has a new battleground President 2012 Electoral College projection map and it is embedded above.Much has changed since we last ran our NBC presidential battleground map back in early November. (Has it REALLY been that long?) The economy and labor market have improved; President Obama’s approval numbers have risen after his debt-ceiling blues; and the Republican primary contest has turned into a knock-down, drag-out fight. And that explains why our Electoral College scorecard has gone from 196 D vs. 195 R (with 147 toss-up electoral votes) back in November, to 222 D vs. 197 R with (119 toss-up). The big changes: We’ve moved Michigan and Wisconsin from toss-up to Lean Dem, reflecting Obama’s improved strength in both states; we’ve moved New Hampshire from Lean GOP to Toss-up; and we’ve moved Iowa from Toss-up to Lean GOP. The map and the changes on it are based on the public and private polling we’ve seen, as well as our conversations with operatives studying the battlegrounds. Again, we do not make our judgments SOLELY on public polling or based on poll averages.
No big deal here.
The race continues to come down to just a few states: New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Nevada.
Here is my take on the race (and, my Electoral College map), some months ago and I don’t think things have changed much.
This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com
However, should Nevada flip to Obama, there would then be a 269 vs. 269 tie and the House of Representatives (GOP controlled and destined to stay that way) will decide the Presidency.
This will either be a close race with my scenario above or President Obama will win an easy re-election.
I guess we will find out, once the Republicans choose their nominee.
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President 2012: How Do Gingrich and Romney Look Against Obama in the Electoral College?
The 2012 Republican presidential primary battle shifts to Florida, where Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are locked in a tight battle. And, already, Republicans are starting to have visions of a Newt candidacy — and they don’t like what they see. That includes an electoral map that could look quite different — and much worse for them — than the one Romney or another Republican might compete on.Larry Sabato over at the University of Virginia Center for Politics has this excellent analysis. Long and short of it is: Newt Gingrich is more of a gamble to beat President Obama, should he win the Republican nomination.
To be clear, President Obama is vulnerable. His approval rating – 46% approve, 48.6% disapprove, according to the RealClearPolitics approval average — is middling. And against Mitt Romney, Obama’s vulnerability shows: in Pollster.com’s average of national polling, Obama leads Romney just 46.5% to 45.3%. But against Gingrich, the average tells a very different story — Obama, at 49.9%, leads Gingrich (39.1%) by more than 10 points.
Granted, there are outliers: Gallup on Tuesday had both Romney and Gingrich running evenly with Obama, both down 50% to 48%. But the bulk of the polling data indicates that Romney, at least at this point, is the stronger candidate against Obama.
Why does Romney fare better? Well, the best candidate against Obama remains “generic Republican” — that make-believe person who leads Obama by a single slim point, according to RealClearPolitics. Let’s be honest here: Romney’s the closest thing out there to a generic Republican available. He is not going to steal the presidency away from the incumbent if Obama’s having a good year and the economy is solid. Rather, if the country is ready to make a change, then Romney would be a credible alternative. The national polling numbers bear that out; they also show that Gingrich, at least right now, is not seen as a similarly acceptable alternative.
In other words, in the key battleground states of Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa and Florida, Gingrich looks like a risk to LOSE these states.
Here is my Electoral College Map from some months ago:
This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com
Sobato and his staff make the argument that Gingrich will perform worse (at least he is polling worse now) than Romney in the states, the GOP needs to win to beat Obama.
This may very well be true, and the GOP Establishment have their own maps and are looking at the Senate and House race polls across the nation.
Romney is SAFE and Gingrich MAY underperform Obama.
But, what does the GOP base want in a candidate? A generic Republican, Romney nominee or a firebrand, big idea guy, like Gingrich.
Guess we will find out next tuesday in Florida.
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President 2012: How Does the Electoral College Look – One Year Out?
NBC has their battleground map above and their analysis.A year out from Election Day 2012, NBC’s battleground map shows that the presidential contest is shaping up to be VERY competitive and potentially VERY close; think 2004 meets 2000, with the 2008 states. According to the map, 196 electoral votes are in the Democratic column, while 195 are in the GOP column. And 147 electoral votes are considered a toss-up. The map also shows the toll the past summer took on President Obama: In April, it was 232 Dem, 191 GOP, with 115 toss-up.
- Solid Dem (no chance at flip): DC, DE, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (67 electoral votes)
- Likely Dem (takes a landslide to flip): CA, CT, IL, ME, WA (98)
- Lean Dem: MN, NJ, OR (31)
- Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI (147)
- Lean GOP: AZ, GA, MO, NE (one EV), NH (42)
- Likely GOP (takes a landslide to flip): AL, AR, IN, LA, MS, MT, NE (four EVs), ND, SC, SD, TX (100)
- Solid GOP (no chance at flip): AK, ID, KS, KY, OK, TN, UT, WV, WY (53)
The fact is some of the key battleground states which I have been writing about since the beginning of 2011 have swung to the GOP and there remain just a few battlegrounds. One of these states must be won by President Obama in order to win the Presidency. These states are: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio.
Here is my map which will reflect the Electoral College votes if the Presidential electionwere held today. This is an accurate representation of the polling data I have seen and will likely be the result of next November’s election.
So, the GOP will concentrate its campaign resources into probably six states, depending upon who the nominee is – Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada. It is in these states where the race for the Presidency will be run.
And, as of today, the Republican candidate wins the Presidency 275 Vs. 263.
If you, the reader, would like to test other Electoral College vote scenarios, go here to this interactive website.
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President 2012: Obama Targets a Few Key States
The 2008 Presidential Electoral College Results
Well, DUH.In addition to his bus trip this week through North Carolina and Virginia, the Wall Street Journal notes President Obama will “will visit another key region, the Mountain West, next week, where Hispanic voters helped put Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico in the president’s column in 2008.”
“The focus on both regions is meant to give the president multiple routes to victory and to reduce his dependence on Ohio and Florida, the giant electoral prizes that have long defined presidential politics. The Obama campaign still plans to fight for both, but its climb has become steeper, as polls show that many working-class white voters have soured on the president.”
” “A campaign official noted that if Mr. Obama were to win all the states Democrat John Kerry took in 2004, he would claim an Electoral College majority in 2012 if he could win both North Carolina and Virginia, or one of those states plus Colorado and Nevada. Democrats won none of those states in 2000 or 2004, but Mr. Obama won all four in 2008.”
Just look at the Electoral College map.
President Obama will have a difficult time winning in Florida, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina, according to recent polls. Nevada will also be a stretch for Obama (the economy has been devastated there), particularly if Mitt Romney is the GOP nominee.
Colorado is doable for the President, but if he loses all of the rest, he is toast.
If Nevada, in the below map, goes to Obama then the race would be a 269 vs. 269 tie and the House of Representatives would decide who the next President is (likely GOP).
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President 2012: Pennsylvania Considering Change of Electoral College Vote Process
This change or proposed change in how Electoral College votes are determined is not new and was attempted via an initiative in California in 2008. The California initiative failed to make the ballot.
A new proposal is pushing the often-forgotten Electoral College into the spotlight as Pennsylvania officials ponder the state’s role in next year’s presidential race.
Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi is trying to gather support to change the state’s “winner-takes-all” approach for awarding electoral votes. Instead, he’s suggesting that Pennsylvania dole them out based on which candidate wins each of the 18 congressional districts, with the final two going to the contender with the most votes statewide.
So far, the idea has received support from colleagues of the Delaware County Republican in the state House and from Republican Gov. Tom Corbett. But Democrats, who have carried the state in presidential contests since 1992, said the shift would erode Pennsylvania’s clout.
Only two states — Nebraska and Maine — divide their electoral votes instead of giving the whole bloc to the candidate that wins the state’s popular vote. Even for those two states, the piecemeal approach has been a rarity, with Nebraska historically dividing its five votes in the 2008 election, when one went to President Barack Obama.
Most states cling to the winner take all nature of determining where their Electoral College votes go. Maybe changing the system apportioning by Congressional District is MORE fair, but it definitely removes the clout afforded Democrats in urban areas where they rack up large majority votes (particularly in Philadelphia where there is a large African-American population who vote overwhelmingly Democratic).
It changes the game and that is what politics is all about. And, it is within the discretion of the laws of Pennsylvania.
Dave Weigel seems to think this is screwing the Democrats.
Of course, it is.
Elections have consequences, remember?
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President 2012: Gaming the Electoral College – A Tie Possible?
The 2008 Presidential Electoral College Results
It is easy for us political pundits to game the 2012 Presidential race with this Electoral College Vote Calculator which I mentioned previously here.Today, Larry Sabato in his crystal ball has run through a number of electoral scenarios. They can be found here and can be gamed at the calculator site.
Have fun!
I particularly like Sabato’s Electoral College tie scenario in which the House of Representatives would determine the next President.
If Obama loses IN, OH, NC, NH, NV, FL and IA, while keeping Virginia and his other 2008 states, it is 269-269, and the House of Representatives picks the new president, with each state’s delegation having one vote and 26 votes needed for election. In today’s House, the Republican would win by a vote of 33 to 16. One state, Minnesota, has a tied delegation and presumably would not cast a vote.
Here it is in graphic form:
If the economy remains as poor as it is today, I don’t think it will be anywhere close to a tie and the GOP nominee will easily win the 270 votes necessary in the Electoral College.