• Democrats,  GOP,  Independent voters,  Polling

    Republican Pary Identification Lowest in 30 Years But No Movement Away From Conservatism

    gop-party-identification

    Check out the Pew Research Center interactive graph

    An interesting study that heralds the rise of the independent voter in the era of Barack Obama.

    The proportion of independents now equals its highest level in 70 years. Owing to defections from the Republican Party, independents are more conservative on several key issues than in the past. While they like and approve of Barack Obama, as a group independents are more skittish than they were two years ago about expanding the social safety net and are reluctant backers of greater government involvement in the private sector. Yet at the same time, they continue to more closely parallel the views of Democrats rather than Republicans on the most divisive core beliefs on social values, religion and national security.

    While the Democrats gained a sizable advantage in partisan affiliation during George Bush’s presidency, their numbers slipped between December 2008 and April 2009, from 39% to 33%. Republican losses have been a little more modest, from 26% to 22%, but this represents the lowest level of professed affiliation with the GOP in at least a quarter century. Moreover, on nearly every dimension the Republican Party is at a low ebb – from image, to morale, to demographic vitality.

    By contrast, the percentage of self-described political independents has steadily climbed, on a monthly basis, from 30% last December to 39% in April. Taking an average of surveys conducted this year, 36% say they are independents, 35% are Democrats, while 23% are Republicans. On an annual basis, the only previous year when independent identification has been this high was in 1992 when Ross Perot ran a popular independent candidacy.

    As has been the case in recent years, more independents “lean” Democratic than Republican (17% vs. 12%). Yet an increasing share of independents describe their views as conservative; in surveys conducted this year, 33% of independents say they are conservatives, up from 28% in 2007 and 26% in 2005. Again, this ideological change is at least in part a consequence of former Republicans moving into the ranks of independents.
    The latest values survey, conducted March 31-April 21 among 3,013 adults reached on landlines and cell phones, finds that there has been no consistent movement away from conservatism, nor a shift toward liberalism – despite the decline in Republican identification. In fact, fewer Americans say the government has a fundamental responsibility to provide a safety net than did so two years ago, and the share supporting increased help for the needy, even if the debt increases, has declined.

    How does this trend affect the future of the two party system? Will independent voters gradually assimilate back into the two majoer parties or will there arise a new third party?

    Will independent candidates first start at the state level and contest districts that normally are dominated by either the Democrats or GOP?

    Stay tuned……..


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  • Democrats,  GOP,  Polling

    Poll Watch: The Rise of the Independent Voter

    There has been much discussion as of late as to the declining Republican Party and its demise as a “regional” party. Of course, this is bull and Flap has shown you why.

    Now, Mark Blumenthal over at Pollster has his latest Party ID Chart.

    • Democrats – 36.7%
    • Independents – 33.5%
    • Republicans – 26.4%

    And, here are the most recent trends:

    2009-05-01_PewParty

    The most striking feature of the above charts?

    The most striking feature of the chart is not the drop in Republicans, but rather the increase in independent identification. The decline in Republican ID is a nearly parallel decline for the Democrats. That trend is not surprising, as partisan identification often increases slightly during the last few months of an election year and fade afterward. However, note that the Pew Research report labels the magnitude of increase among independents as “noteworthy” as it appears much greater than what they observed in 2005.

    Why more independent voters?

    Well, for one, why register with a party when in some states you can vote in whichever primary election you wish.

    Or, perhaps American voters are tired of labels.

    In any case, the majority of elections will be won be appealing to the independents, on an election by election basis as their numbers increase. Judging success of a political party by its either increasing or decreasing registration numbers may not be that important any longer, especially since both major parties are shrinking.


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