Site Meter

Posts Tagged “Mike Huckabee”

share save 120 16 President 2012: Huckabee is Out   Michele, Newt and Mitch In?

Yeah, particularly in Iowa.

The presidential nominating process is a lot like the US Open tennis tournament. There is a final (the Republican v. Obama), a semifinal (the top conservative against the top moderate for the GOP nomination) and a quarter final (the conservatives against each other and the moderates competing together for the right to enter the semis).

Mitt Romney and Donald Trump are centrists. Businessmen, economic growth free market types who will vie with each other for the moderate nomination. In 2008, Romney fought and lost to Huckabee for the conservative nod to oppose McCain. But, because of his health care position, he now has to fight it out on the moderate court.

Mike Huckabee’s withdrawal opens the way on the right court for Gingrich, Bachmann, and Daniels. Had Mike run, he would have easily carried the day and faced Romney/Trump for the nomination. But, with Mike out, it’s an open field.

Bachmann has the most to gain from Huckabee’s withdrawal. Polling shows that the Tea Party types and the evangelicals are more or less the same people. With Mike out, Michele has a clear shot at their support (once they get over Herman Cain and Ron Paul, neither of whom can win — and Paul shouldn’t win). As the odd-woman-out dissenting from the Boehner deals with Obama, holding out for fiscal conservatism and tough Republican bargaining, she can pick up a lot of ground in a hurry.

Gingrich’s announcement puts the onus on him to dispel the negatives that dog his campaign. All agree that he would be the best opponent to Obama in a debate and that he is the brightest, best candidate would have. But many are scared off because of the negatives. He has six months to show them that they are wrong.

And then there is Mitch Daniels, potentially, the conservative establishment’s answer to Romney. Despite an absence of charisma, his extraordinary record as governor puts him right in the thick of the hunt for the nomination. He, along with his supporters (Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Chris Christie of New Jersey, and John Kasich of Ohio), have walked the walk not just talked the talk. His candidacy is a most attractive one.

And, if Sarah Palin decides to come in now, I would say the battle for the social conservatives will really heat up.

Newt Gingrich with his personal baggage should be used as a foil against Obama but he is unelectable – too old and too damaged.

Mitt Romney will have to compete in Iowa and will probably take a loss there even with Huckabee not in the race. Romney will be vulnerable in South Carolina too –then on to Florida.

Exit question: Will Mitch Daniels with Scott Walker, John Kasich and Chris Christie endorsing him be able to beat Michele Bachmann in Iowa?

share save 120 16 President 2012: Huckabee is Out   Michele, Newt and Mitch In?
Tags: , , , , , , , ,

Comments 1 Comment »

share save 120 16 Update: President 2012: Mike Huckabee Better in or Better Out of the Race?; Huck Wont Run

+++++Update+++++

Mike Huckabee announced tonight on his Fox News Show that he will not be a candidate for President

Better in for the Republican Party.

And this from Democratic Pollster PPP.

Rumor has it Huckabee may announce that he is not running on his Fox News show tomorrow. That would be good news, at least for the time being, for the president. Huckabee gives him more trouble than the others in the South, in Appalachia, and up and down the Mississippi–including in states where the president remains strong (like North Carolina and Virginia) and states where he has declined since 2008 (like Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Missouri). The GOP almost certainly needs to return to Southern dominance and dip into either the West or Midwest–or both–to win the White House next year, and it remains to be seen whether another candidate can establish the rapport with these voters that Huckabee has. 

Romney is not a much weaker alternative in these states, and he does put Obama more on the defensive in the Northeast and Southwest, particularly Nevada and New Hampshire, than does Huckabee. But Huckabee would certainly be leaving both a good shot at the nomination and a decent shot at Obama on the table by keeping his hat out of the ring.

Mike Huckabee is a stronger candidate than Mitt Romney and will provide an alternative to Mitch Daniels, should he falter. Moreover, should Huck not run, Sarah Palin may decide to go. Her polling against President Obama has been appalling.

All in all having the affable, Baptist minister in the race is better for the GOP, than Donald Trump, Newt Ginrich or Tim Pawlenty.

share save 120 16 Update: President 2012: Mike Huckabee Better in or Better Out of the Race?; Huck Wont Run
Tags: , , ,

Comments Comments Off

share save 120 16 President 2012: Mike Huckabee Better in or Better Out of the Race?

Better in for the Republican Party.

And this from Democratic Pollster PPP.

Rumor has it Huckabee may announce that he is not running on his Fox News show tomorrow. That would be good news, at least for the time being, for the president. Huckabee gives him more trouble than the others in the South, in Appalachia, and up and down the Mississippi–including in states where the president remains strong (like North Carolina and Virginia) and states where he has declined since 2008 (like Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Missouri). The GOP almost certainly needs to return to Southern dominance and dip into either the West or Midwest–or both–to win the White House next year, and it remains to be seen whether another candidate can establish the rapport with these voters that Huckabee has. 

Romney is not a much weaker alternative in these states, and he does put Obama more on the defensive in the Northeast and Southwest, particularly Nevada and New Hampshire, than does Huckabee. But Huckabee would certainly be leaving both a good shot at the nomination and a decent shot at Obama on the table by keeping his hat out of the ring.

Mike Huckabee is a stronger candidate than Mitt Romney and will provide an alternative to Mitch Daniels, should he falter. Moreover, should Huck not run, Sarah Palin may decide to go. Her polling against President Obama has been appalling.

All in all having the affable, Baptist minister in the race is better for the GOP, than Donald Trump, Newt Ginrich or Tim Pawlenty.

share save 120 16 President 2012: Mike Huckabee Better in or Better Out of the Race?
Tags: , , ,

Comments Comments Off

share save 120 16 President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Gets a Bounce   Obama   47% Vs. Romney   42%

According to the latest PPP Poll.

The killing of Osama bin Laden has given Barack Obama a bounce in his approval ratings. But it doesn’t appear to have boosted his chances for reelection.

PPP this month finds Obama with a 49% approval rating to 43% of voters who disapprove. That’s a seven point improvement on the margin since last month’s national survey when slightly more voters (48%) gave him poor marks for his work than good ones (47%). Obama’s greatest improvement has come with Republicans (from 8% approval to 14%). He’s up with independents (from 44% to 49%) and with Democrats (from 81% to 83%) by smaller amounts.

More voters may like Obama for the moment, but there aren’t more planning to support him next year. Last month Obama led the Huckabee/Romney/Palin/Gingrich quartet by an average of 10.75 points. This month Obama leads those same four candidate by an average of…10.75 points. There’s been no improvement in his reelect numbers whatsoever since the bin Laden death and if there hasn’t been in the week after the killing it doesn’t seem likely there will be 18 months after the killing either. What Obama’s approval bounce appears to be is an increase in the percentage of people who say they like him, but still won’t vote for him. They appreciate him taking out bin Laden but that’s not going to outweigh everything he’s done that they don’t like over the course of the last 27 months.

Approval Vs. Disapproval:

  • Mike Huckabee – 33% Vs. 41%
  • Sarah Palin – 33% Vs. 60%
  • Newt Gingrich – 29% Vs. 53%
  • Mitt Romney – 32% Vs. 41%
  • Donald Trump – 24% Vs. 65%
  • Mitch Daniels – 14% Vs. 33% Vs. 53% (not sure)

Again, voters are not amored with the Republican Presidetial candidates and the one new face, Mitch Daniels is not really known.

We also tested Mitch Daniels on this poll and he trails 48-34 but what might be most interesting is his favorability numbers with Republicans. Only 23% express a favorable opinion of him to 25% with an unfavorable one. I think a fair amount of that ‘unfavorable’ rating can be explained by voters who rate just about any politician they’ve never heard of negatively- which I think is about 10% of the population- but those are not impressive numbers by any stretch of the imagination. Beltway journalists are clearly a lot more enamored with Daniels than actual GOP voters are.

General Election Head to Head:

  • Obama – 49% Vs. Huckabee – 42%
  • Obama – 54% Vs. Palin – 37%
  • Obama – 52% Vs. Gingrich – 38%
  • Obama – 47% Vs. Romney – 42%

Again, this is a national poll and the election contest is in key battleground sates. But, it is surprising that Obama did not receive more of a bounce with the killing of Osama Bin Laden. This event will fade with time.

What the GOP nominess should hope is that their favorability improves.

The entire poll is here.

PPP surveyed 814 American voters from May 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political 

organization.  PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.  PPP  is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times

found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

share save 120 16 President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Gets a Bounce   Obama   47% Vs. Romney   42%
Tags: , , , , , , ,

Comments 1 Comment »

share save 120 16 President 2012 Virginia Poll Watch: Obama 52% Vs. Huckabee 43%

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

  • President Barack Obama – 51% vs. 44%

Democrats are united for the President.

The biggest key for him is that he has the Democratic base completely behind him- 94% approve to only 4% who disapprove. Virginia still has a lot of white conservative Democrats, particularly in certain parts of the state, so for Obama to have almost unanimous approval within his party is very impressive. He even has more Republicans (albeit a paltry 7%) who approve of him than there are Democrats (4%) who disapprove. That’s not something we’re seeing in our polling very often right now. Independents narrowly give him good marks, 48/46, as well.

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

  • Mike Huckabee – 37% Vs. 42%
  • Mitt Romney – 35% Vs. 43%
  • Newt Gingrich – 26% Vs. 54%
  • Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 62%
  • Donald Trump – 22% vs. 69%

General Election Head to Head:

  • Obama – 52% Vs Huckabee – 43%
  • Obama – 51% Vs. Romney – 40%
  • Obama – 54% Vs. Gingrich – 37%
  • Obama – 55% Vs. Palin – 40%
  • Obama – 54% Vs. Trump – 32%

Virginia is a key battleground sate that the GOP needs to flip in 2012. Compare the results of the most recent Washington Post poll of Virginia.

Similar, no?

In Virginia, the GOP Presidential candidate field is not very popular and well received. If the Republicans want to take back Virginia’s Electoral College votes, they will need to run candidates other than the current field. Calling on Mitch Daniels and/or Chris Christie.

Even if Obama was unpopular in Virginia he’d still be in a decent position to win the state again because the GOP contenders are so weak there. Take those unpopular Republicans and combine them with a decently popular Obama and you have a very difficult battle for the GOP to get Virginia back. And it’s hard to imagine the party winning back the White House without Virginia- because of that fact and because of Obama’s relative strength there, this is looking to me like the most important state in the Presidential race next year.

Exactly and why Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie will jump into the race.

The entire poll is here.

share save 120 16 President 2012 Virginia Poll Watch: Obama 52% Vs. Huckabee 43%
Tags: , , , , , , ,

Comments Comments Off

┬ęGregory Flap Cole All Rights Reserved