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A couple of recent polls show a dead heat in Michigan.

We Ask American Poll:

• Romney – 29%
• Santorum – 29%
• Gingrich – 10%
• Paul – 12%
• Undecided – 20%

PPP Poll:

The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.

The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum’s favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.

What we’re seeing in Michigan is a very different story from Florida where Romney surged by effectively destroying his opponent’s image- here Romney’s gains have more to do with building himself up.

Groups Santorum has double digit leads with include Protestants (up 47-30), union members (up 43-23), Evangelicals (up 51-24), Tea Partiers (up 55-20), ‘very conservative’ voters (up 54-23), and men (up 40-28).

Romney is leading the field with women (38-34), seniors (42-34), moderates (35-24), ‘somewhat conservative’ voters (40-34), and Catholics (43-31).

As I have said, if Mitt Romney were to lose Michigan, the state of his youth and family legacy, there will undoubtedly be another candidate who will jump into the race. If Romney wins Michigan by a point or two, then there may also be a challenge.

Take your pick: Mitch Daniels or Jeb Bush.

Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are not polling well in general election match-ups against President Obama. The GOP Establsihment will not stand by and let Santorum and/or Gingrich sink their 2012 prospects.

But, the new candidate will have to move quickly since election deadlines loom in early March.

You knew it was going to start.

The GOP establishment is getting antsy about Mitt Romney and if he does manage to lose Michigan – well, he is done.

A prominent Republican senator just told me that if Romney can’t win in Michigan, the Republican Party needs to go back to the drawing board and convince somebody new to get into the race.

“If Romney cannot win Michigan, we need a new candidate,” said the senator, who has not endorsed anyone and requested anonymity.

The senator believes Romney will ultimately win in Michigan but says he will publicly call for the party to find a new candidate if he does not.

“We’d get killed,” the senator said if Romney manages to win the nomination after he failed to win the state in which he grew up.

“He’d be too damaged,” he said.  “If he can’t even win in Michigan, where his family is from, where he grew up.”

What about Rick Santorum?

“He’d lose 35 states,” the senator said, predicting the same fate for Newt Gingrich.

And, who would the new candidate be?

Jeb Bush, said this Senator.

I, frankly, think it will be Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels or Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal – or even Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.

If the GOP wants to win against President Obama, they had better hope Santorum beats Romney in Michigan.

Mitt Romney’s argument that he is the most electable Republican against President Obama bares close scutiny, according to the latest PPP Polls.

One thing that has remained constant in the ever changing GOP Presidential race is that Mitt Romney is the strongest candidate against Barack Obama…at least until now.  PPP’s newest national poll finds Romney trailing Obama by 7 points at 49-42, while Santorum trails by only 5 points at 49-44.

Santorum’s net favorability is 21 points better than Romney’s. Santorum’s at -7 (39/46), while Romney is at -28 (29/57). That’s mostly because Republicans like Santorum a lot better (+40 at 62/22 to Romney’s +2 at 43/41). But Santorum also does a good deal better with independents, coming in at -6 (40/46) to Romney’s -23 (32/55). In the head to heads Obama leads Romney by 9 with independents, but has only a 4 point advantage on Santorum with that group.
Ron Paul has nearly matched Romney on the electability front, trailing Obama by 8 points at 49-41. Paul does the best of the Republican candidates with independents, with only a 1 point deficit to Obama. Newt Gingrich has firmly established himself as the Republican who would be the biggest general election disaster, trailing 52-40 with a 19 point deficit among independents.

Why is Obama doing so well? It has a lot to do with this finding: 41% of voters think the economy’s getting better to only 31% who think it’s getting worse with 27% thinking that it’s staying about the same. This is the first time since Obama took office that we’ve asked a question in this vein on a national poll and found more voters feeling optimistic than pessimistic about the way things are heading.

If the GOP nominates Mitt Romney, he will lose by as much or more than John McCain.  Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are flawed candidates, who also will lose. There is no path to victory for any of these pols, especially with an improving economy.

If the GOP wants to win, they need to nominate someone outside the current field – an accomplished Governor like Bobby Jindal, Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie.

The entire poll is here.

Chris, with Rick Santorum’s victories last night in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri perhaps he deserves a second look. One thing is for sure, should the GOP nominate Mitt Romney it will guarantee four more years for the Noble Peace Prize winning President Obama.