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share save 120 16 Flaps Links and Comments for March 8th from 10:21 to 10:46

These are my links for March 8th from 10:21 to 10:46:

  • Is Chuck DeVore Making A Comeback in OC 3rd Supervisoral District? – The FlashReport.org today released an intriguing poll of the 3rd Supervisor District that revealed some surprising results.

    There are, as yet, no definitively declared candidates. The closest is former 3rd District Supervisor Todd Spitzer. Couple of weeks ago, I saw an e-mail from a wealthy donor soliciting support for Spitzer and stating he would be announcing about now, but no word as yet.

    Former Assemblyman and U.S. Senate candidate Chuck DeVore is actively looking at the race, as well.

    But let’s get to the poll, conducted for FR by SmithJohnson Research. The survey was conducted March 1-2 of 300 registered voters in the 3rd District. The margin of error is 5.6%.

    The poll tests a five-candidate field of Spitzer, DeVore, Orange Mayor Carolyn Cavecche, Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang and Anaheim Councilman Harry Sidhu but the most interesting stuff comes from the one-on-one poll testing of a Spitzer-DeVore contest.

    +++++++

    This will be a race to watch.

  • Sen. John McCain back fundraising in California this week – Former 2008 presidential candidate John McCain, a strong supporter of gubernatorial hopeful Meg Whitman, is back fundraising in the Bay Area this month — this time at a pricey benefit to fund campaigns to win a 2012 Republican majority in the U.S. Senate.

    The Arizona U.S. Senator stars at a what's being touted as "an intimate roundtable breakfast" on March 22 for the National Republican Senatorial Committee in the venture capital enclave of Menlo Park.

    The invites specifically say the purpose of the McCain fundraising is "to gain a majority in the Senate in 2012!"

    McCain's CA visit comes the weekend after the state GOP's big convention in Sacramento, where Mississipi Gov. Haley Barbour will deliver the Saturday night keynote address; but so far, McCain has no announced plans to visit the 3-day statewdie party gathering starting March 18.

    +++++++

    The California ATM foe the GOP has already started a new cycle

  • California Tax and Budget Debate – Fact, Fancy and Fudges – As the rhetoric heats up, it may be useful to explore some of the main talking points.

    Anti-tax groups contend that voting to place taxes before voters would violate GOP legislators' no-new-taxes pledges. There is, however, an obvious difference between enacting taxes directly and placing them on the ballot. And since anti-tax groups routinely insist that taxes should require voter approval, chalk up one for hypocrisy.

    Likewise, the anti-tax groups also insist that voters have already spoken when they rejected a 2009 budget package that would have kept the temporary taxes in place for a longer period.

    Wrong. The length of the income, sales and car tax increases was not directly before voters in 2009; the election hinged largely on other issues.

    Brown and supporters of the taxes stress that they are temporary – an additional five years – and that the proceeds would go to local governments and schools.

    In fact, however, they would go to local agencies only because those agencies would be taking on functions that are being shifted from the state, so the net effect of the added revenues would be to take pressure off the state budget.

    The argument that the taxes would be temporary is also suspect, since under Brown's plan the state would be constitutionally obligated to pay for the programmatic shifts to local governments even after the tax extensions expired.

    A permanent obligation financed by a temporary revenue stream is folly; it's a better than 50-50 bet that were Brown's plan adopted, five years later he or his successor would be seeking to extend the taxes again or make them permanent.

    Brown also contends that the tax extensions would fill only half the budget hole, with sharp spending cuts, especially in health and welfare, filling the rest.

    But many of the cuts are actually funding shifts; Democrats are scaling back the real cuts and many of them would either require federal waivers, be subject to litigation, or both.

    +++++++++

    The GOP doesn't want to raise taxes and wants cuts in California's State Budget.

    Jerry Brown and the Democrats don't want to cut spending and wish to shift responsibilities and funding tothe cities and counties who have no easy way to pay for them.

    Looks like a stalemate to me.

share save 120 16 Flaps Links and Comments for March 8th from 10:21 to 10:46

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share save 120 16 GOP NRSC Targets Montana, Virginia, Nebraska, Florida and North Dakota in 2012 Senate Races
testerqanda9600725 GOP NRSC Targets Montana, Virginia, Nebraska, Florida and North Dakota in 2012 Senate Races

Montana Democrat U.S. Senator Jon Tester – a GOP target in 2012

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has released its target list for 2012.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has its eyes on five key races that could pave the way for the GOP to take the majority in the upper chamber in 2012.

NRSC Executive Director Ron Jesmer said in an interview with CNN published Wednesday that the committee believes there is “fertile ground” for Republicans gains in Montana, Virginia, Nebraksa, Florida and North Dakota.

Jesmer said that centrist Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson (D) is in “serious trouble and kind of in a league of his own,” and that Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) also “is in a lot of trouble.”

“There are other states where depending on if one candidate runs, there could be some other good challenges,” he added.

The official’s comments provide an early preview to the GOP’s strategy heading into the 2012 Senate campaign, when the party is expected to make gains on the Democrats and take the majority.

Montana, Nebraska and North Dakota were won by 2008 GOP presidential nominee John McCain. Florida and Virginia flipped from red to blue two years ago, but some see the states tilting back to the GOP after the party picked up a number of House seats in each state. 

Barring any GOP blow up in the next year, I see a relatively easy time for the GOP to take control of the Senate in 2012 – or at least come within a few seats, but have an in effect operating majority.

Ben Nelson in Nebraska is toast as are North Dakota’s Kent Conrad and Montana’s Jon Tester.

Former Virginia Senator George Allen has a good chance to best the irascible and weird Jim Webb (if he runs).

It will be good Dem Senate hunting for the GOP in 2012.

share save 120 16 GOP NRSC Targets Montana, Virginia, Nebraska, Florida and North Dakota in 2012 Senate Races

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