• Census,  Election 2012

    President 2012: The First Map of Battleground States Updated

    election2010map Presidential Election 2012: The First 2012 Map of Battleground States
    Back in November, I posted a first map of 2012 Presidential battleground states. Of course, this was before the census and a concomitant reapportionment.

    Republican-leaning states will gain at least a half dozen House seats thanks to the 2010 census, which found the nations population growing more slowly than in past decades but still shifting to the South and West.

    The Census Bureau announced Tuesday that the nation’s population on April 1 was 308,745,538, up from 281.4 million a decade ago. The growth rate for the past decade was 9.7 percent, the lowest since the Great Depression. The nation’s population grew by 13.2 percent from 1990 to 2000.

    Michigan was the only state to lose population during the past decade. Nevada, with a 35 percent increase, was the fastest-growing state.

    The new numbers are a boon for Republicans, with Texas leading the way among GOP-leaning states that will gain House seats, mostly at the Rust Belts expense. Following each once-a-decade census, the nation must reapportion the House’s 435 districts to make them roughly equal in population, with each state getting at least one seat.

    That triggers an often contentious and partisan process in many states, which will draw new congressional district lines that can help or hurt either party.

    In all, the census figures show a shift affecting 18 states taking effect when the 113th Congress takes office in 2013.

    Texas will gain four new House seats, and Florida will gain two. Gaining one each are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington.

    Now, we have some additional polling/party identification information which should also give us a clue as to the identity of 2012 Presidential KEY battleground states:

    Watching the party identification polling will give us the trend toward or away from the incumbent Democratic President. Remembering Obama/Biden won 365 electoral votes Vs. McCain/Palin 173.

    Looking at the states that lost Electoral Votes:

    7hcefomukkzriiembmfzw95 2012 GOP Bonanza: All 10 States Losing Congressional Seats Tilt Democratic

    And, the states that gained Electoral Votes:

    ml1evzsnyusz6txglpmfia9 2012 GOP Bonanza: All 10 States Losing Congressional Seats Tilt Democratic

    Before, I identified the key battleground states (pre-census release):

    • Ohio – 20 (electoral votes): -2 after reapportionment
    • Virginia – 13
    • Colorado – 9
    • Florida -27: +2 after reapportionment
    • Nevada – 5: +1 after reapportionment
    • Wisconsin -10
    • New Hampshire – 4
    • Indiana – 11
    • North Carolina – 15

    And, I think, at least for now, pending any dramatic change in party identification I will stay with these states.

    The question for the GOP will be: Who will be the best candidate in these nine states to match up against President Barack Obama?