This is a shocking poll in that most pundits do not predict blue Michigan to be in play for 2012.

Republicans have a real chance to make it a race in Michigan this cycle, according to a poll from EPIC-MRA. Barack Obama trails Mitt Romney in a hypothetical matchup, 46 to 41 percent, and Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D, only polls at 44 percent to former Republican Rep. Pete Hoekstra’s 42 percent.

Republicans have had quite a dry spell in Michigan, but even then they managed to win down-ticket statewide races for attorney general and secretary of state. The state is certainly not a lost cause — we saw in 2010 that Republicans can win races all the way up and down the ticket under the right conditions.

Stabenow’s seat can be added to a list of vulnerable Democratic Senate seats in North Dakota, Nebraska, Virginia, and Montana.

President Barack Obama is not a lock to win a second term. The economy continues to be very poor and American voters may see past his speeches and the “winning the future” hyperbole and choose the GOP nominee.

If Michigan comes into play, Obama is in trouble.

Likewise, the Senate seat of Democrat Debbie Stabenow will be a flip to the GOP = goodbye Harry Reid as U.S. Senate Majority Leader.