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share save 120 16 The Morning Flap: May 31, 2012

Larry Sabato electoral college map The Morning Flap: May 31, 2012

Map from Larry Sobato

These are my links for May 30th through May 31st:

  • Obama and Romney Neck and Neck in Nevada- In the battle for Nevada’s six electoral votes, President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are very competitive.  Obama receives 48% to 46% for Mitt Romney, among registered voters in Nevada including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate.  One percent supports another candidate, and 5% are undecided.“President Obama is nowhere near the twelve percentage point victory he had in Nevada four years ago, but at 48%, he remains within striking distance to carry the state,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Drilling down into the numbers, there is a gender gap and a generational divide which may tell the story on Election Day.”
  • Obama and Romney Tied in Iowa- In Iowa, President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are in a dead heat.  Among registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Obama receives 44% while Romney garners the same proportion — 44%.  Two percent support another candidate, and 10% are undecided.“Both Obama and Romney are far from fifty percent in Iowa and have a lot of ground to cover,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “But, Obama’s supporters are less enthusiastic and less interested than Romney’s, and this poses a special problem for the incumbent president.”
  • Obama and Romney Vie for Lead in Colorado- President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are neck and neck in Colorado, a state Obama won by nine points in 2008.  Among registered voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Obama receives 46% to 45% for Romney.  One percent plans to vote for someone else, and 8% are undecided.“This is a state George W. Bush carried in 2000 and 2004 and has trended Republican in party registration since 2008,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “President Obama broke through four years ago and is countering the partisan difference this time by being plus ten among independents.”
  • NBC-Marist polls: Obama, Romney deadlocked in three key states- President Barack Obama and presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney are deadlocked in three key presidential battleground states, according to a new round of NBC-Marist polls.In Iowa, the two rivals are tied at 44 percent among registered voters, including those who are undecided but leaning toward a candidate. Ten percent of voters in the Hawkeye State are completely undecided.In Colorado, Obama gets support from 46 percent of registered voters, while Romney gets 45 percent.

    And in Nevada, the president is at 48 percent and Romney is at 46 percent.

    These three states are all battlegrounds that Obama carried in 2008, but George W. Bush won in 2004.

  • Humor / The Blame game…. – The Blame game….
  • Health / NYC Mayor Bloomberg bans “Big” Soda – NYC Mayor Bloomberg bans “Big” Soda
  • Political History / Historical photo: John F. Kennedy Jr. salutes his father’s coffin along with the honor guard. – Historical photo: John F. Kennedy Jr. salutes his father’s coffin along with the honor guard.
  • The Associated Press: AP Exclusive: Calif. 9/11 fund raided for deficits – RT @amandacarpenter: AP: California is raiding a fund intended to help victims of 9/11 to pay for deficits
  • Quote of the Day – RT @politicalwire: Biden says he’s been “assigned to” PA, DE, OH, IA, NH and FL. Possible additions: VA, NV, NC…
  • Elizabeth Warren acknowledges telling Harvard, Penn of Native American status- Democratic Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren acknowledged for the first time late Wednesday night that she told Harvard University and the University of Pennsylvania that she was Native American, but she continued to insist that race played no role in her recruitment.“At some point after I was hired by them, I . . . provided that information to the University of Pennsylvania and Harvard,’’ she said in a statement issued by her campaign. “My Native American heritage is part of who I am, I’m proud of it and I have been open about it.’’Warren’s statement is her first acknowledgment that she identified herself as Native American to the Ivy League schools. While she has said she identified herself as a minority in a legal directory, she has carefully avoided any suggestion during the last month that she took further actions to promote her purported heritage.
  • Berkley, Heller Neck-and-Neck in New Poll – Hotline On Call – RT @HotlineReid NV SEN: Heller (R) 46, Berkley (D) 44. Berkley only up 6 in Clark Co., Heller up 12 in Washoe #tcot
  • Republicans Target Dental Bill That Private Equity Hates #FB- The likes of Jeb Bush, William Frist, Tommy Thompson and Haley Barbour aren’t typically heard from in the office of Thom Tillis, the Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives.Yet the four Republican Party stalwarts, none of them a Carolina resident, have contacted Tillis’s office over a little- known bill to toughen state regulation of dental companies. They’ve been joined by Grover Norquist , the Tea Party favorite and anti-tax crusader who heads the Washington, D.C.-based Americans for Tax Reform.“It’s not terribly common to have these types of names” intervening on a state bill, said Jordan Shaw, a spokesman for Tillis.

    Their interest marks the Tar Heel State as the front line in a national struggle over dental management companies. Fueled by Wall Street money, at least six such firms are under scrutiny by two U.S. senators and authorities in five states over allegations that they soak taxpayers through excessive Medicaid billings, abuse patients via needless treatments and run afoul of laws that say only licensed dentists can practice dentistry.

  • News from The Associated Press – Nanny State RT @AP Don’t supersize that: NYC wants to ban sale of extra-large sodas and other sugary drinks: -ldh
  • Nanny State Eatch: Bloomberg Plans a Ban on Large Sodas- New York City plans to enact a far-reaching ban on the sale of large sodas and other sugary drinks at restaurants, movie theaters and street carts, in the most ambitious effort yet by the Bloomberg administration to combat rising obesity.The proposed ban would affect virtually the entire menu of popular sugary drinks found in delis, fast-food franchises and even sports arenas, from energy drinks to pre-sweetened iced teas. The sale of any cup or bottle of sweetened drink larger than 16 fluid ounces – about the size of a medium coffee, and smaller than a common soda bottle – would be prohibited under the first-in-the-nation plan, which could take effect as soon as next March.
  • MSNBC host: NYC big soda ban a ‘great idea’- On MSNBC’s Morning Joe this morning, co-host Mika Brzezinski defended New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s proposal to ban sugary drinks larger than 16 oz. from restaurants.”I think it’s a great idea,” she said. “Does anyone want to challenge me on that?”Brzezinski added that there was no reason for kids to get large drinks, pointing out that the large drinks were like “drinking a big glass of sugar, of poison.”

    “Does anyone think their kid should drink this entire thing in the course of the day? How about every day? How about three times a week?” she asked during the segment. “Well, guess what’s happening out there? That’s what’s happening. And that’s why the majority of the nation’s children are obese.”

  • Riehl World View: (Video) MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell Exposed, Feels Cheapened Over Man Crush On Obama – RT @DanRiehl: (Video) MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell Exposed, Feels Cheapened Over Man Crush On Obama
  • First Read – NBC-Marist polls: Obama, Romney deadlocked in three key states – RT @HotlineJosh New NBC/Marist polls: Romney 44, Obama 44 (IA); Obama 46, Romney 45 (CO), Obama 48, Romney 46 (NV)
  • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-05-31 – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-05-31
  • Republicans introduce their own version of Dream Act – Washington Times – Panderbear to Hispanic Voters: Republicans introduce their own version of Dream Act #tcot
  • Sports / What every poker player covets….. – What every poker player covets…..
  • Sports / The Vin Scully bobblehead…. – The Vin Scully bobblehead….
  • » Hundreds of Cherokees form new group to challenge Elizabeth Warren – Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion – Hundreds of Cherokees form new group to challenge Elizabeth Warren #tcot
  • (404) http://t.co/3 – RT @LATimescitybeat: New USC/Times poll shows CA voters back Brown’s tax hike plan — but question if $ will be used well: …
  • Poll: Romney gains 21 points in favorability among female voters – The Hill’s Ballot Box – RT @thehill: Poll: Romney gains 21 points in favorability among women
  • Soul Mate
    - YouTube
    – New Romney web video: Soul Mate: On World Multiple Sclerosis Day, Ann Romney and her family share their thoughts
  • Walker Maintains Lead in Wisconsin Recall Race – Marquette Law School Poll in WI shows Gov. Scott Walker leading challenger Tom Barrett 52% to 45% among likely voters
  • Auto Jobs: Sign of the Times – US Business News Blogs – CNBC – Drudge Headline: At Hyundai plant in Montgomery, Al more than 20K people have applied for one of the 877 job openings
  • Ted Cruz Favored in Runoff for Texas Senate Seat in Major Tea Party Upset – RT @BreitbartFeed: Ted Cruz Favored in Runoff for Texas Senate Seat in Major Tea Party Upset #tcot
  • The Page by Mark Halperin | Romney Closes Favorability Gap – ABC News/ WAPO Poll: Romney up on Favorability and Obama slips among women voters #tcot
  • The Promise of America
    - YouTube
    – Romney campaign releases new web video: The Promise of America #tcot
  • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » CA-26: Will Republican Voters Game Tony Strickland? – CA-26: Will Republican Voters Game Tony Strickland?
  • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » The Morning Flap: May 30, 2012 – The Morning Flap: May 30, 2012
  • Tusk Demands U.S. Response to Obama Death Camp Remark- Bloomberg – Polish Premier Demands U.S. Response to Obama Death Camp Remark
  • Obama Nazi death camp gaffe ‘hurt all Poles’: PM – Yahoo! News – Obama Nazi death camp gaffe ‘hurt all Poles’: PM
share save 120 16 The Morning Flap: May 31, 2012
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share save 120 16 The Morning Flap Featuring Brett Kimberlin for May 24, 2012

Brett Kimberlin The Morning Flap Featuring Brett Kimberlin for May 24, 2012

Brett Kimberlin

These are my links for May 23rd through May 24th:

share save 120 16 The Morning Flap Featuring Brett Kimberlin for May 24, 2012
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share save 120 16 President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Women

Drudge Romney Leading Obama With Women President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With WomenThe result comes from the CBS-New York Times Poll about which I posted here.

Here is a more formal post about Mitt Romney’s poll lead.

President Obama’s claim that the GOP is mounting a war on women has proven to be a failure. A month into his assault on the Republicans and Mitt Romney, the new CBS-New York Times poll shows that the GOP presidential candidate now leads among women–and men.

Since April, women have gone from strongly backing Obama to endorsing Romney. In April, Obama held a 49 percent to 43 percent lead among women. That has now flipped to 46 percent backing Romney with 44 percent for Obama, an 8-point switch.

Ironically, Romney’s support among men has dropped, but he still edges Obama 45 percent to 42 percent.

And here’s a surprise: Despite the media hyping the so-called war on women, no major outlet today noticed Romney’s new lead with women voters.

And, I love the Matt Drudge dig…

share save 120 16 President 2012 Poll: Romney Leads Obama With Women
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share save 120 16 The Morning Flap: May 10, 2012

Obama and Romney differ on gay marriage The Morning Flap: May 10, 2012

These are my links for May 9th through May 10th:

  • Gay Marriage Reversal Means Cash For Obama- President Barack Obama’s endorsement of gay marriage carries a political cost, but it also means floods of cash from wealthy gay donors and disillusioned young people eager to be inspired by him again.After three years of political compromise on issues from health care reform to spending cuts, Obama delivered a surprise gift to what many of his core supporters view as the civil rights issue of the day, simply by saying what everyone assumed he believed. But the distinction between implying a change and saying it outright will more than symbolic in the crucial area of campaign fundraising. Already, gay donors, mostly men, reportedly constitute 1 in 6 of Obama’s top fundraisers known as bundlers. And in the first 90 minutes after the news broke Wednesday, the campaign received $1 million in spontaneous contributions, a Democrat told BuzzFeed.“This is beyond unifying — it’s electrifying,” said Eugene Sepulveda, a former top bundler who withdrew to take a non-political job early this year. “This man stands for right, despite the political consequences.”

    And for a class of disillusioned progressive mega-donors, many of them gay, the completion of Obama’s “evolution” is an invitation reason to return.
    “I think the people who were disappointed by the president’s failure to support marriage quality will now have that barrier removed for them,” said Jeff Soref, a longtime Democratic activist in the gay community.

  • A gay marriage political crisis, not ‘evolution’- There is a lot of fawning media coverage of President Obama’s new support for gay marriage. There is serious discussion of how he “evolved,” and there are serious timelines being prepared by the Obama apologencia that earnestly track his “evolution.” The only problem is they don’t put “evolution” in quotation marks to highlight the cynical doubts that Obama’s conversion deserves. There is every reason to believe that this decision was made because Obama thinks it serves his current selfish political interests. He characterizes his politically expedient flip-flop as a theological “evolution.” The reality is, his political trajectory has stalled and he “evolved” into a desperate political situation.The path to his final “evolution” and telling the truth about how he really feels about gay marriage don’t ‘t just reveal his changed thinking, it perfectly matches his political needs at every step of his ambitious career. Let’s pause before we do any planning for an expansion to the eventual Obama monument on the Mall.Reality check: Obama manipulated gay voters, kept them at a distance and hoped they would settle for the occasional wink and a nod. But he has found himself in a campaign with dwindling enthusiasm and a narrowing electoral map; he needs this group’s enthusiastic support and high turnout in November.
  • Obama gay marriage support seen as world precedent- President Barack Obama’s announcement Wednesday that he supports gay marriage boosted the hopes of gay rights groups around the world that other leaders will follow his example, though opponents denounced his switch as a shameless appeal for votes.Several countries, including Canada, Spain and Argentina, allow same-sex marriage, but far more countries ban it and dozens even prohibit consensual same-sex relations. Gay-rights groups hope Obama’s views will inspire more change.”This is incredibly important, it’s excellent news. The United States is a global leader on everything, and that includes gay rights,” said Julio Moreira, president of the Rio de Janeiro-based Arco-Iris gay rights group. “This will force other nations like Brazil to move forward with more progressive policies.”

    Vatican and other religious officials didn’t comment, but political leaders and others opposed to gay marriage excoriated Obama. In particular, politicians tied to Pentecostal and Catholic churches have spoken out strongly against same-sex marriage in Latin America.

  • The Facts: Gay Marriage Didn’t Tilt 2004 Election – President Obama’s stand today in support of gay marriage has unleashed much conversation surrounding the political impact of his statement and the effect it could have on the electoral map and election this November.   And part of this discussion has repeated a myth that I have tried to dispel before and will try again.
    The gay marriage initiatives in 2004 on the ballot in 11 states had no discernable effect on turnout among conservatives.  Yes, that’s right,  none.  Not even in Ohio, which was a swing state in 2004 won in a close contest by former President Bush.
    Today, the myth is repeated over and over that Bush beat Kerry in Ohio in part because of the gay marriage initiative on the ballot.  The facts and data simply do not support that conclusion.
    Yes, conservative turnout was up in Ohio by five percentage points.  It was also up five percentage points nationally.  And if you look at the conservative turnout increase in the 11 states verses the other 39 states that didn’t have gay marriage on the ballot,  the conservative turnout was up exactly the same.
  • President Obama jumps off the gay marriage fence- President Obama’s announcement Wednesday that he was done “evolving” and now supports same-sex marriage was, in retrospect, inevitable. Vice President Joe Biden made it so Sunday, when he remarked almost casually that he had grown “comfortable” with gay marriage.Biden’s comfort level made Obama the nation’s least comfortable politician, tied up in a knot of convoluted positions that he had hoped voters on both sides would overlook.He opposed state laws like the one passed in North Carolina this week denying same-sex couples the right to wed. But even as he opposed anti-marriage laws, he didn’t support pro-marriage laws.
  • Biden blamed; politics drove timing- Joe Biden just might go down in history as the guy who forced Barack Obama to publicly announce his private support for gay marriage.But the vice president is no hero in the West Wing, and administration officials are struggling to cast Obama’s truly historic — and risky — announcement as something more than an election-year shotgun wedding.
  • Romney stands by his opposition to gay marriage- Mitt Romney on Wednesday reaffirmed his view that marriage should be restricted to one man and one woman, highlighting a sharp contrast with President Barack Obama.Obama declared his unequivocal personal support for same-sex marriage during an interview with ABC News. Reporters asked Romney about the issue after a campaign event in Oklahoma City.”My view is that marriage itself is between a man and a woman,” the presumptive Republican presidential nominee told reporters. He said he believes that states should be able to make decisions about whether to offer certain legal rights to same-sex couples.
  • Obama’s Marriage Act- Congratulations to President Obama for matching his public policy with what everyone already knew were his private beliefs. His statement Wednesday that he supports same-sex marriage spared the public the ruse of waiting until after the election to state the inevitable.First his Justice Department refused to defend the constitutionality of the Defense of Marriage Act, and then Mr. Obama had said his views on the subject were “evolving.” The Beltway chatter now is that Vice President Joe Biden’s public support this week for gay marriage had cornered Mr. Obama into his own change of heart. But as with pretty much all Presidential actions lately, you don’t have to be a cynic to wonder about Team Obama’s political re-election calculations.Everyone agrees that the election’s number one issue is the U.S. economy. Insofar as it’s not really possible for Mr. Obama to change that subject, he can at least give the chattering classes something else to write about. This qualifies. During a political cycle when few besides Rick Santorum wanted to talk about social issues, Mr. Obama has now reinserted one of the hottest into the debate.

    One school of political thought holds that gay-rights issues typically hurt the person who raises them first. But perhaps the Obama campaign calculates that in a close election he will need a passionate base and that this will drive liberal and youth turnout in such important and evolving states as Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and New Mexico. On the other hand, Mr. Obama looks like he has just solved that problem Mitt Romney supposedly has with rousing cultural conservatives.

  • Obama gay marriage stance could win younger voters, lose others -- President Obama’s unexpected announcement on Wednesday that he supports gay marriage ignited his political base but risks a backlash with independent voters in swing states.Supporters on the left were particularly fired up by Obama’s shift, but political observers pointed to Tuesday night’s vote in North Carolina, where voters overwhelmingly opted to define marriage as legal only between one man and one woman, as proof the decision could come back to haunt the president.
  • Another Ohio Poll Shows Obama, Romney Tied- In its second look at the presidential race in the pivotal battleground state of Ohio this month, a Quinnipiac University poll released early on Thursday confirms that President Obama and Mitt Romney are in a virtual tie in the Buckeye State.Obama leads Romney in the poll by a single point, 45 percent to 44 percent, well within the poll’s margin of error. Twelve percent of voters would vote for another candidate, would not vote at all, or are undecided. In last week’s poll, Obama led Romney, 44 percent to 42 percent.
  • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-05-10 – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-05-10
  • Flap’s Dentistry Blog: American Dental Association: Dentist Incomes Are Falling – American Dental Association: Dentist Incomes Are Falling
  • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » President Obama Evolves and Now Supports Gay Marriage – President Obama Evolves and Now Supports Gay Marriage
  • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » The Morning Flap: May 9, 2012 – The Morning Flap: May 9, 2012
  • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » CA-26: Julia Brownley Flip Flops on Support for Israel? – CA-26: Julia Brownley Flip Flops on Support for Israel?
  • Flap’s Dentistry Blog: The Morning Drill: May 9, 2012 – The Morning Drill: May 9, 2012
  • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » Day By Day May 9, 2012 – Language – Day By Day May 9, 2012 – Language
share save 120 16 The Morning Flap: May 10, 2012
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share save 120 16 The Morning Flap: May 7, 2012

Merkel Digs In The Morning Flap: May 7, 2012

These are my links for May 4th through May 7th:

share save 120 16 The Morning Flap: May 7, 2012
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