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Katon Dawson, who came in second to Steele in January.

Republican insiders tell Political Wire that a no confidence vote on RNC Chairman Michael Steele is likely to be called after the NY-20 special election on March 31 — regardless of whether Republicans win the seat or not.

Katon Dawson, who came in second in the January RNC vote, is said to be quietly organizing a vote and is getting the support of several state party chairmen who want to dump Steele.

Flap agrees with Jim Geraghty over at National Review that Steele will NOT be replaced no matter what happens in the New York 20th Congressional race.

However, if the FBI investigation into his sister and his 2006 Senate campaign sprouts new legs, Steele could be forced to resign.

Probably much to the relief of the old guard on the RNC.

But, the next in line will NOT be Katon Dawson, despite his machinations.

Wishful thinking from the LEFT mostly and stirring the pot.

Jim Geraghty has the RIGHT view.

But, Steele must quickly organize his staff and demonstrate that he has command of the party apparatus as a change agent.

The Republican Party chose the first black national chairman in its history Friday, just shy of three months after the nation elected a Democrat as the first African-American president. The choice marked no less than “the dawn of a new party,” declared the new GOP chairman, former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele. Republicans chose Steele over four other candidates, including former President George W. Bush’s hand-picked GOP chief, who bowed out declaring, “Obviously the winds of change are blowing.”

Steele takes the helm of a beleaguered Republican Party that is trying to recover after crushing defeats in November’s national elections that gave Democrats control of Congress put Barack Obama in the White House.

GOP delegates erupted in cheers and applause when his victory was announced, but it took six ballots to get there. He’ll serve a two-year term.

Here is the vote:

• Michael Steele – 51
• Mike Duncan – 44
• Katon Dawson – 34
• Saul Anuzis – 24
• Ken Blackwell – 15

Televison coverage is on C-Span, and live coverage from the RNC Winter Meeting Floor on Twitter. Follow Flap here on Twitter and Follow the hashtag #RNCCHAIR here for up to the minute commentary.

Republicans are looking for a national party chairman to lead a GOP rebirth after losing control of Congress and the White House in back-to-back elections.

Their choice when they vote Friday was to give former President George W. Bush’s hand-picked party chief, Mike Duncan, a shot at turning around the Republican Party by re-electing him to a second-two year term or choosing a fresh face from one of his four challengers.

No one was expected to get the required majority of the votes on the first balloting by the 168-member Republican National Committee.

Those challenging Duncan are former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, South Carolina GOP Chairman Katon Dawson and Michigan GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis.

A fifth — former Tennessee GOP Chairman Chip Saltsman — dropped out of the race on Thursday with little explanation, saying only in a letter to RNC members: “I have decided to withdraw my candidacy.

So, who will win?

It’s anybody’s guess.

GOP insiders say Friday’s contest to elect the next chairman of the Republican National Committee will be a long and drawn-out affair, with multiple ballots necessary to determine the winner.

The RNC’s voting rules require a candidate to collect a simple majority of 85 votes in order to claim victory. In the absence of a consensus choice among the field of five candidates, though, the election appears destined for numerous ballots, involving many hours of deliberations punctuated by intense lobbying and political horse-trading between votes.

Public estimates of the five candidates’ support have tended to place incumbent RNC Chairman Mike Duncan at the head of the pack, followed by former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele and South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Katon Dawson, with Michigan Republican Party Chairman Saul Anuzis and former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell behind them.

Televison coverage begins on C-Span in little less than an hour and there will be extensive coverage from the RNC Winter Meeting Floor on Twitter. Follow Flap here and Follow the hashtag #RNCCHAIR here for up to the minute commentary.

Flap has endorsed Michael Steele for the Chairmanship.

Stay tuned…..

A survey conducted for the Young Republican National Federation, which claims more than 10,000 members, finds that the RNC chairman candidates’ views on social issues are important to only 6% of the 1,249-person sample. The candidates’ positions on the economy and job creation were most in demand, followed by their views on taxes, energy independence and national security. Illegal immigration, a subject of outsize importance to the vocal wing of the party, ranked 8th out of 10; only five percent of the members said that they were curious about how candidates would talk about the subject.

According to a YRNF spokesperson, self-identified social conservatives were well represented in the survey.

The YR”s have some good insight into the NEW direction of the party. Obviously, the politics of current RNC Chairman Mike Duncan have failed.

The election is tomorrow and Flap is most comfortable with Michael Steele and therefore ENDORSES him for Chairman.