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share save 120 16 President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Romney 23% Vs Bachmann 22% Vs. Cain 10%
450x362algbachmannromne President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Romney 23% Vs Bachmann 22% Vs. Cain 10%

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney

According to the latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll.
Two-time candidate Mitt Romney and tea party upstart Michele Bachmann are neck and neck leading the pack, and retired pizza chief Herman Cain is in third place in a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll of likely participants in the state’s Republican presidential caucuses.

The results are bad news for the earnest Tim Pawlenty, a former Minnesota governor who is in single digits despite a full-throttle campaign.

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor and business executive, claims 23 percent, and Bachmann, a Minnesota congresswoman and evangelical conservative, garners 22 percent. Neither has done heavy lifting in Iowa.

The rest of the Republican field is at least 12 points behind them.

As, I have said for the past few weeks, this race is boiling down to one between Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann. The only wild cards in the race are whether Texas Governor Rick Perry will run and of course, what Sarah Palin will do. Palin is traveling to Iowa this week for the debut of her documentary.

share save 120 16 President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Romney 23% Vs Bachmann 22% Vs. Cain 10%

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share save 120 16 President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Bachmann and Pawlenty Gaining in GOP Field?
michele bachmann President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Bachmann and Pawlenty Gaining in GOP Field?

Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., speaks in St. Paul, Minnesota on June 18, 2011

Yes, according to the latest AP-GfK Poll.
  • Republicans still give Romney the highest favorability rating among announced candidates, at 61 percent. Palin, who’s keeping everyone guessing about her intentions, is holding steady, too, with a 63 percent favorability rating.
  • Bachmann’s favorability rating jumped from 41 percent to 54 percent among Republicans. A third still have no opinion about her, and it’s too soon to tell if her boost will endure or was a June phenomenon.
  • Huntsman, who announced his candidacy this week but still is relatively unknown nationally, had a 23 percent favorability rating among Republicans. He’s gotten better known — 59 percent had no opinion about him in the latest poll, down slightly from 66 percent a month earlier. But the result was an increase in those with an unfavorable opinion, from 11 percent to 17 percent, with a greater uptick among tea party supporters.
  • Pawlenty, one of the first to get into the race, saw his favorable ratings rise 10 percentage points to 43 percent. His support among tea party backers was up 11 points.

The poll was conducted June 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The survey included 429 Republicans, and that subset had a larger, 6.2 percentage point margin of error.

This is a national poll and still has Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin as the leaders.

Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty are gaining in favorability because they are becoming better known.

I want to see the polling with Sarah Palin out of the race and Rick Perry in, but we will have to wait for these match-ups until toward the end of summer.

share save 120 16 President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Bachmann and Pawlenty Gaining in GOP Field?

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share save 120 16 President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 27% Palin 16% Cain 9% Paul 7% Pawlenty 6%
Gallup GOP June 13 2011 President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 27% Palin 16% Cain 9% Paul 7% Pawlenty 6%

According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Republicans’ support for Mitt Romney as their party’s 2012 presidential nominee has increased significantly to 24%, compared with 17% in late May. As a result, Romney has widened his advantage over Sarah Palin in the latest update on rank-and-file Republicans’ nomination preferences.

Going into tonight’s first GOP Presidential debate (without Sarah Palin in the field, by the way), Mitt Romney clearly is the front-runner for the GOP nomination. Unless another candidate emerges, the path to the GOP nomination should be Romney’s to lose.

These results are based on a June 8-11 USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted on the eve of a candidate debate in New Hampshire that will be the first to include some of the better-known candidates.

Romney appears to have gotten a boost in recent weeks after the official announcement of his candidacy. Gallup’s prior update of May 20-24 came just after former co-leaders Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump announced they were not candidates for the nomination; that poll showed Romney and Palin in a virtual tie. Since then, Romney’s support has increased and Palin’s has been flat, leaving Romney with an eight-percentage-point advantage.

That is the largest numerical lead Gallup has measured for any candidate since it first began measuring nomination preferences in September. In that initial September poll, Romney held a seven-point advantage over the field of candidates. Romney or Huckabee held slim margins of no more than four points in subsequent polls.

No candidate besides Romney has shown a significant increase in support since the May update, though Rick Santorum, who also recently announced his official candidacy, saw his support rise from 2% to 6%. Meanwhile, support for Newt Gingrich, whose campaign has been off to a rocky start since his official announcement last month, is now at 5%, a slight decline since May. The high point for Gingrich was 13% in November.

And, Romney’s lead over the field expands with Sarah Palin out of the field.

Let’s look at the graph:

Gallup GOP WO Palin June 13 2011 President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 27% Palin 16% Cain 9% Paul 7% Pawlenty 6%

Note with Sarah Palin gone, Michele Bachmann does not rise substantially in the polls with Palin voters being redistributed throughout the field. However, Bachmann will stick in Iowa and be able to gain momentum there. Whereas, this is a national poll.

What are the demographics of the GOP voters?

The graph:

Gallup GOP June 13 2011 Demographics President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 27% Palin 16% Cain 9% Paul 7% Pawlenty 6%

So, what does this all mean?

Mitt Romney is the early front-runner and the only challenger who is close in the polls is Sarah Palin, who has not decided whether to run or not. A number of candidates remain in the field but their chances of winning the nomination appear remote.

Perhaps tonight’s GOP Presidential debate will deliver some momentum to the third and fourth tier candidates. But, I doubt it. This race is Romney’s to win or lose.

Romney may be emerging as a front-runner in a GOP race that has been characterized to date by its lack of a leading candidate. Republican nomination contests usually have a clear front-runner, and that candidate often goes on to win. But that did not hold true in the last presidential election cycle, when Rudy Giuliani led in national preference polls throughout 2007 but performed poorly in the actual nominating contests in 2008. Additionally, even if Romney were to expand his lead into the double digits in the coming months, he still would rate as one of the weakest Republican front-runners in recent GOP nominating history.

Romney remains behind lesser-known candidates Cain and Bachmann in Gallup’s measure of positive intensity toward candidates, though his score seems to be on the rise.

Whether Romney is actually assuming the mantle of the front-runner will be clear in future polls. The current results could be a short-term bounce due to increased attention paid to his campaign after his official entry into the race, or could indicate a more lasting shift in preferences that has put him in the top position in the GOP field.

share save 120 16 President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 27% Palin 16% Cain 9% Paul 7% Pawlenty 6%

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share save 120 16 President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 49% Vs. Obama 46%
ABC WAPO Poll June 7 2011 President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 49% Vs. Obama 46%

According to the latest Washington Post-ABC News Poll.
The public opinion boost President Obama received after the killing of Osama bin Laden has dissipated, and Americans’ disapproval of how he is handling the nation’s economy and the deficit has reached new highs, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The survey portrays a broadly pessimistic mood in the country this spring as higher gasoline prices, sliding home values and a disappointing employment picture have raised fresh concerns about the pace of the economic recovery.

By 2 to 1, Americans say the country is pretty seriously on the wrong track, and nine in 10 continue to rate the economy in negative terms. Nearly six in 10 say the economy has not started to recover, regardless of what official statistics may say, and most of those who say it has improved rate the recovery as weak.

New Post-ABC numbers show Obama leading five of six potential Republican presidential rivals tested in the poll. But he is in a dead heat with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who formally announced his 2012 candidacy last week, making jobs and the economy the central issues in his campaign.

Again, this is a national poll, so take it with a grain of salt. We all know that it is the election in key battleground states that really matter.

Mitt Romney is leading President Obama, 49% to 46% among registered voters but it is within the margin of error, so it is not statistically relevant, although it does point out Obama’s vulnerability. The other GOP candidates do not fair as well as Mitt Romney (see the graphic above).

GOP Primary election:

  • Romney – 21% (16%, 4/172011)
  • Palin – 17% (5%)
  • Giuliani – 8% (NA)
  • Gingrich – 6% (2%)
  • Paul – 6% (2%)
  • Pawlenty – 4% (1%)
  • Cain – 4% (NA)
  • Bachmann – 3% (1%)
  • None of the above – 5% (12%)

Well, Mitt Romney is polling the best against Obama but it is uncertain as to whether he can win in the GOP nomination race. It is also uncertain whether Sarah Palin or Rudy Giuliani will run.

My best guess, is that should Sarah Palin decide to roll the dice and run, that Rudy Giuliani will also enter the race. Rudy will count on the divisiveness of a Romney Vs. Palin contest, while he easily wins  East and West Coast Republican primary elections and delegates. He might also figure a deal with Romney to defeat Palin. A wild card in all of this will be Michele Bachmann who will run strong in the Iowa Caucus and may gather some momentum going into South Carolina.

So, what does this all mean?

The economy is weak, voters do not think it is improving, Obama is in trouble and the GOP Presidential field while hopeful, is uncertain, with no front runner.

The entire poll is here.

share save 120 16 President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 49% Vs. Obama 46%

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share save 120 16 President 2012 Iowa Poll Watch: Obama 49% Vs. Romney 40%, Obama 55% Vs. Palin 35%
electoral college President 2012 Iowa Poll Watch: Obama 49% Vs. Romney 40%, Obama 55% Vs. Palin 35%

Electoral College vote map of Larry Sabato

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

  • President Barack Obama – 49% Vs. 46%

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

  • Newt Gingrich – 19% vs. 63%
  • Sarah Palin – 29% Vs. 63%
  • Mitt Romney – 35% Vs. 47%
  • Tim Pawlenty – 25% Vs. 41%
  • Herman Cain – 20% vs. 40%

General Election Head to Head:

  • Obama – 54% Vs. Gingrich – 33%
  • Obama – 55% Vs. Palin – 35%
  • Obama – 49% Vs. Romney – 40%
  • Obama – 49% Vs. Pawlenty – 37%
  • Obama – 50% Vs. Cain – 32%

Although President Obama is doing better in Iowa than the past polling period, his job approval ratings still lag. Obviously, Iowa voters are not happy with the current GOP Presidential field and they all perform less than John McCain in 2008.

When PPP polled Iowa in mid-April Barack Obama had negative approval numbers, was tied with Mike Huckabee, and led Mitt Romney by only 4 points in a state that he won by 10 points against John McCain in 2008. Now six weeks later Obama’s fortunes in the state have shifted dramatically, symbolizing the uptick in his political fortunes we’ve seen throughout the country in the month since the killing of Osama bin Laden. He now has positive approval numbers, doesn’t have to worry about Huckabee anymore, and has built his lead over Romney to a 9 point margin similar to what he won the last time around.

Also, Iowa is NOT considered by many to be a KEY battleground state that the GOP will need to beat Obama in the Electoral College. See the list here.

Obama’s approval numbers in Iowa aren’t that strong and it would certainly be premature to declare 17 months out from the election that he’ll win the state again. But the numbers here are another reminder that the weak Republican field is his greatest ally as he moves toward reelection, and that the GOP will have to come up with a stronger candidate to have a serious chance of defeating Obama next year.

The entire poll is here.

share save 120 16 President 2012 Iowa Poll Watch: Obama 49% Vs. Romney 40%, Obama 55% Vs. Palin 35%

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