Dan Walters, political columnist of the Sacramento Bee has Schwarzenegger at critical stage – will he rebound or be a footnote?

Arnold Schwarzenegger’s governorship has entered a critical stage, and within weeks, he and we will know whether it marks a turning point in California’s political history or is fated to become an eccentric footnote – our version of Minnesota’s Jesse Ventura fiasco.

There can be little doubt that the bodybuilder-turned-movie-star-turned-politician has squandered much of the public goodwill that swept him into office 22 months ago as voters fired inept predecessor Gray Davis. He failed to convert that momentum into a broader government reform movement, settled for some cheap early “victories” that he overhyped to the public and then, belatedly, launched what turned out to be a bumbling “year of reform” crusade.

Now it is time for the Governor to campaign for California reform. Hed has squandered his momentum and let the public employee unions and left-wing union organizers run an effective negative campaign against him.

The unions control the Democrat legislature as the Southern Pacific Railroad and the railroad barons did in the early 20th century. With Gray Davis, their union boy in the Governship, they bankrupted the state and placed the future of California in a precarious situation. There was no check on their money consuming power of redistribution to their union cronies from the state treasury. Arnold has checked them and now they want him out.

But, Schwarzenegger has to take his case to the voters of California.

The November special election will be the vehicle.

Well, you have to understand, I had a choice a year ago,” he told a radio talk show last week. “Do I want to continue enjoying my 70 percent popularity rating and keep quiet and not create the reforms that we need, not to fix the broken system, not to rattle the cage and upset the status quo? Or do I want to go and keep my promise, what I told to the people during my campaign, that I will go to Sacramento and fix a broken system and create true reform?”

There’s a lot of truth in that. Schwarzenegger is absolutely correct in concluding – however belatedly – that state government is badly broken and needs fundamental change. Whether his ballot measures represent that reform is a debatable point, but at least their passage would indicate that California voters are open to the concept and could be a starting point. Given his diminished public standing, however, voters will no longer pass them just because he wants them to do so, as he had originally hoped when his popularity was high. He will have to make the case that their passage would improve the quality of governance.

Governator, you cannot begin quickly enough to campaign.

Flap’s recommendations:

1. Immediately declare that you will be a candidate for Governor in 2006.

This will help you with donors who are nervous that you may pull a Jesse Ventura and leave.

2. Declare a border emergency with Mexico and refuse to support any Bush, McCain, Kennedy Guest Worker program.

The Hispanic caucus in the legislature is all left-wing and will be no help to you. Pandering to Hispanics may have worked for Bush, but it won’t help you in 2006. Hispanics do not solely vote on these issues in any case.

3. Endorse the Paycheck Protection, Proposition 75 and campaign for it.

This proposition scares the unions that you need to pare back just like Hiram Johnson and the Southern Pacific Railroad. Cut off easy access to the millions needed for a media campaign and you diminish their “Mother’s Milk” for future campaigns against you and your reform agenda.

Schwarzenegger edged closer to that declaration last week, saying: “I’m not in there for the short run here. You know, I’m a follow-through guy.” And, he said, he’ll campaign hard to “let the people know that we had the recall election to fix a broken system, and they sent me to Sacramento to do that job, to be an outsider that can go in, that doesn’t owe anyone any favors, and to start moving things around and really fix the system.”

Schwarzenegger may be down, but he’s not out, and what occurs between now and Nov. 8 will determine whether he’s hit bottom and can rebound, or whether he and his governorship are doomed.

A new Public Policy Institute of California poll showing his popularity has declined sharply also indicates that among likely voters, it’s markedly higher. A poll released by a pro-Schwarzenegger campaign group said his approval ratings are slightly higher than his disapproval numbers, and both it and the PPIC poll indicated that the Legislature’s standing is much lower than the governor’s. That division worries his opponents and could become his ace in the hole.

Governor, you already made the hard decision to stay with the special election.

GET BUSY.

Technorati Tags: Dan Walters , Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Special Election, Paycheck Protection, Proposition 75

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page