Arnold Schwarzenegger,  Bear Flag League,  California,  Politics,  Proposition 73,  Proposition 74,  Proposition 75,  Proposition 76,  Proposition 77,  Proposition 78,  Special Election 2005

California Special Election Watch: ROPE-A-DOPE II

Sacramento Bee columnist, Dan Walters, has Ultra-low turnout could spell semi-victory for Schwarzenegger.

By all appearances, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has been set up – or has set himself up – for a sharp setback in the Nov. 8 special election, but in the Alice-in-Wonderland world of California politics being so far down could give him a leg up.

On Flap previously, California Special Election Watch: It is the TURNOUT Stupid.

Uniformly, polls indicate that voters are not impressed with Schwarzenegger’s arguments that two major ballot measures – one overhauling the redrawing of legislative districts, the other imposing new limits on state spending – are needed.

They do, however, appear to be somewhat more amenable to his teacher tenure measure and two others he has endorsed, one requiring parental notification when minors seek abortions and another to require public employee unions to ask permission before taking campaign funds from members.

More importantly, perhaps, voters are turned off by the very notion of having this special election, having been convinced by a massive, union-financed media campaign that Schwarzenegger is wrong to have launched his ballot measure war this year. The latest polling by the Public Policy Institute of California found that more than half of likely voters think the election is a bad idea, but it’s just possible that the negative reaction to Schwarzenegger’s drive could, in a perverse way, produce a better result for him than the current polls indicate, perhaps even a semi-victory.

Absolutely a correct analysis.

Even the Unions seem to be “getting it”.

The Mercury News has Unions say it’s vital for allies in Bay Area not to sit out election.

But other Democratic strategists say the turnout problem is real and the union campaign so far has fallen into a trap that may inadvertently suppress the Democratic vote.

“We’re worried,” said Steve Smith, who is managing Planned Parenthood’s campaign against Proposition 73 because the measure is dead even in polls. The initiative, another the governor is supporting, would require that parents be notified when underage girls seek abortions.

“The kind of campaign that’s been run for months is, `Say no.’ One function of saying no is staying home. That’s a problem for us.”

Now Walters discusses the bungled union media campaign in surpressing their OWN voters.

Flap has noticed a reduction in frequency of anti-Schwarzenegger television ads in the Los Angeles market.

Will the Alliance for a Better California change their message in the last weeks of the campaign?

The tens of million of dollars that are being spent by pro-and anti-sides on the eight ballot measures are aimed, of course, at influencing voters’ decisions, but they may have the auxiliary effect of depressing turnout as voters become even more confused and alienated. And this election may hinge more on how many vote and who they are, rather than on the massive media campaigns.

The PPIC poll found, not surprisingly, that anti-election sentiment is concentrated heavily among Democrats (73 percent) and independents (56 percent). In sharp contrast, 63 percent of Republicans think the election is a good idea, so it may be intrinsically more difficult for Democrats and unions to persuade their voters even to cast ballots.

And then there are the Evangelical Christians and Proposition 73 (Parental Notification for Abortion).

This important base for the Republicans and Schwarzenegger WILL turn-out to vote.

Conservative churches are, with Republican Party encouragement, marshaling turnout for the parental notification measure, Proposition 73.

“If every Christian in California voted for this initiative, it would pass by a landslide,” one pro-Proposition 73 group, the Capitol Resource Institute, says in an appeal that includes suggested church bulletin fliers. Religious conservatives are likely to support Schwarzenegger’s measures.

The Unions are worried and they should be.

Schwarzenegger could possibly win two or three of his endorsed measures, including the Paycheck Protection Initiative which would be a knife to the union’s heart.

Who will the Union bosses blame for the ROPE-A-DOPE?

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Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page