Iran Nuclear Watch Briefings

Iran Nuclear Watch Briefing : June 8, 2006

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, waves to the crowd during a public gathering in his visit to the city of Qazvin, 90 miles (150 kilometers) west of the capital Tehran, Iran, Thursday, June 8, 2006. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Thursday that Iran was ready to discuss ‘mutual concerns’ over its controversial nuclear program but claimed that the West gave in to Iran. Ahmadinejad did not say whether Iran accepts a Western package of incentives aimed at enticing Iran to suspend uranium enrichment to open the way for negotiations with the United States and Europe.

ASSociated Press: Ahmadinejad: Iran to talk, U.S. gave in 

Iran’s president said Thursday his regime is ready for talks over its nuclear capabilities, but he sent mixed signals on how much is open for negotiation and suggested Tehran has the upper hand in its showdown with the West.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad repeated Iran’s position that uranium enrichment is an untouchable national right, a clear jab at the West two days after Iran received a package of economic and technological incentives to suspend the program.

But he also offered some signs of flexibility without specifically mentioning the proposal. In a speech at an industrial city, he said Iran would hold dialogue on “mutual concerns” with foreign powers — including the United States — if they took place “free from threats.”

Ahmadinejad portrayed Iran as having forced Washington and its allies to accept the Islamic regime’s “greatness and dignity” and increasingly bend to its will.

The shifting messages are seen as part of Iranian posturing before possible talks, which could include the United States after a nearly 27-year diplomatic freeze. Western nations, led by the U.S., worry Iran’s uranium enrichment technology could become the backbone for a nuclear arms program. Iran insists it only seeks electricity-producing reactors.

“The nation will never hold negotiations about its definite rights with anybody, but we are for talks about mutual concerns to resolve misunderstandings in the international arena,” Ahmadinejad told thousands of people in Qazvin, about 60 miles northwest of Tehran.

Posturing by Ahmadinejad to the Western Media.
AFP: Reported plan to allow Iran uranium enrichment ‘hypothetical’: US

The United States refused to confirm or deny reports that it and European powers had offered
Iran the possibility of uranium enrichment on its territory, dismissing them as “hypothetical and theoretical.”

The State Department and White House reiterated that Iran must suspend all uranium enrichment on its soil as a condition for Washington’s participation in negotiations with the Islamic republic.

“The precondition of suspending uranium enrichment-related and reprocessing activities — that is still an absolute condition,” said President George W. Bush’s spokesman, Tony Snow.

“That condition would have to hold throughout any negotiating term,” said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack.

“Beyond that, I am not going to speculate. Beyond that, we are truly into the realm of the hypothetical and theoretical,” he said.

According to diplomatic sources in Vienna and Tehran, the powers’ offer to Iran would eventually allow uranium enrichment on its territory, but only after the approval of the international community.

Iran must as a pre-condition to negotiations on the Big 6 incentive package MUST halt all uranium enrichment.

Will they agree?

Doubtful

But, Ahmadinejad and the Mullahs will dance around the issue as they try to find a way out of the diplomatic trap set for them by Condoleezza Rice.

Enriched uranium is seen in this April 11, 2006 file photo. Iran began a fresh phase of uranium enrichment this week just as world powers presented it with incentives to halt nuclear fuel work, according to a U.N. nuclear watchdog agency report obtained by Reuters on Thursday.

Reuters: US waits for Iran’s formal response to nuclear offer

The United States does not consider comments on Thursday by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to be Iran’s formal response to a major power offer of talks and incentives on the nuclear issue, a U.S. official said.

Asking not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the diplomacy, he also told Reuters the comments by Iran’s president gave no sign that Tehran is prepared to suspend uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities, the central condition of the major power offer.

The United States “will withhold any reaction until we hear the formal response through Solana,” the official said, referring to European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana, who presented the major powers offer to Iran on Tuesday.

Asked whether the Bush administration viewed Ahmadinejad’s comments on Thursday to be positive, the official replied: “They have a couple of times now talked about an interest in negotiations but still have not made a commitment to the conditions for negotiations.”

“The ball is still in Iran’s court,” he added.

Ahmadinejad said Thursday threats would not work in any talks to solve a dispute over the country’s nuclear program but said Iran was ready to clear up misunderstandings with the world.

He said Iran was not willing to abandon its nuclear “rights” — usually shorthand in Iran for uranium enrichment — but some analysts said his speech reflected a greater readiness in Tehran to hold talks over the country’s atomic ambitions.

Iran and Ahmadinejad MUST surrender their uranium enrichment program as a pre-condition to going forward with Big 6 negotiations. Has Iran committed to the process?

NOPE

Iran’s Astan Qods Razavi museum chief holds a sample of enriched uranium in April 2006. Iran is continuing uranium enrichment as well as building new production lines for the centrifuge machines that carry out the sensitive nuclear work, the United Nations nuclear watchdog said in a report obtained by AFP.

Reuters: Iran begins fresh atom enrichment despite powers’ offer

Iran began a fresh phase of uranium enrichment this week just as world powers presented it with incentives to halt nuclear fuel work, according to a U.N. nuclear watchdog agency report obtained by Reuters on Thursday.

The report, emailed to the 35 states on theInternational Atomic Energy Agency’s governing board ahead of a meeting starting on Monday, also said Iran was pressing ahead with installing more cascades of centrifuge enrichment machines.

Authored by IAEA chief Mohammed ElBaradei, the report said Iran resumed feeding “UF6” uranium gas into its pilot 164-centrifuge cascade in Natanz on Tuesday after a pause of several weeks to do test runs of the machines without UF6.

Is this Iran’s final answer on the Big 6 proposal?

Probably.

Iran will NOT stop their uranium enrichment program.

Why?

Because their overt nuclear program is only a portion of Iranian uranium enrichment. They have a clandestine military program to manufacture enriched uranium for weapons production. Would this be discovered if IAEA inspectors returned to Iran to verify/enforce the Big 6 negotiations?

You betcha and then Iran would be in for some heavy UNSC sanctions that even Russia/China would be hard pressed to veto.

A Western intelligence source told Reuters hours before the IAEA report that Iran stopped feeding gas into its pilot cascade later in April because of technical glitches, but then resolved them, allowing an enrichment resumption this week.

“This underlines the fact that the temporary halt was technical in nature. It’s a continuation of Iranian policy to profit from all worlds — dialogue to gain time while continuing to strive for an atomic bomb,” the source said.

The report confirmed diplomatic leaks that new traces of highly enriched uranium, the key fissile ingredient in atomic bombs, had turned up on equipment from the ex-military Lavizan-Shian site, razed by Iran in 2004 before inspectors could examine it.

IAEA inspectors earlier this year took swabs from vacuum pumps used at Lavizan. Vacuum pumps have “dual” civilian or military uses but are needed when enriching uranium with a cascade of connected centrifuges.

Iran has said such traces, detected earlier at some other sites in Iran, originated on equipment imported from Pakistan, which has nuclear arms, and did not come from Iranian activity.

ElBaradei’s report said Tehran was still stonewalling a three-year-old IAEA probe into military links with nuclear fuel work, echoing a string of earlier reports.

Iran’s President Ahmadinejad is heading to Shanghai next week for a meeting with China’s Hu Jintao on their nuclear program.

Ahmadinejad will play with the western media cycle until then but everyone knows what Iran’s final answer will be.

Tick Tick Tick

A general view of Iran’s uranium enrichment complex in Natanz

Previous:

Iran Nuclear Watch: United States – Iran Must Suspend Uranium Enrichment During Negotiations

Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Says Western proposal ‘positive’

Iran Nuclear Watch: U.S. Energy Secretary Bodman on Possible Iran Disruption of Persian Gulf Oil Supplies – “We Can Handle it For a While”

Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Receives Big 6 Nuclear Initiative

Iran Nuclear Watch: United States Sweetens the POT

Iran Nuclear Watch: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Threatens Oil Disruption

Iran Nuclear Watch: Ahmadinejad to Publish Big 6 Offer to Iran

Iran Nuclear Watch: Ahmadinejad – Iran Welcomes Unconditional Talks on Nukes

Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran President Ahmadinejad – The West Won’t Deprive Iran of Its Nuclear Technology

Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran “DETERMINED” to Go Ahead with Nuclear Enrichment Work

Iran Nuclear Watch: Big 6 Agree on Iran Nuclear Incentives and Sanctions (?)

Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Spurns Talks With United States

Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran – United States Offer to Join Talks is “A Propaganda Move.”

Iran Nuclear Watch: United States Prepared To Join Other Nations in Direct Iran Talks – IF…

Iran Nuclear Watch: United States to Join Iran Nuclear Talks?

Iran Nuclear Watch: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – “We Are Determined”

Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Wants to Resume Nuclear Talks with European Union

The Natanz uranium enrichment complex in Natanz is pictured in this January 2, 2006 satellite image.



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