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Israel At War Watch: Israel Threatens To Resume War If Hezbollah Refuses to Disarm
JPost: Israel threatens to resume war if Hizbullah refuses to disarm
The IDF will have to resume operations in Lebanon if the expanded United Nations force being assembled does not fulfill its obligation to dismantle Hizbullah, an official in the Prime Minister’s Office warned on Tuesday.
Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah reportedly reached a deal allowing Hizbullah to keep its weapons but refrain from exhibiting them in public. Israeli officials called the arrangement a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which passed over the weekend and was approved on Sunday by the cabinet.
The text of United Nations Resolution 1701 is here.
Is there any doubt the Hassan Nasrallah and the Lebanese government are stalling, thus enabling Hezbollah to re-entrench in areas occupied by the Israeli Defense forces?
NOPE
“The resolution is clear that Hizbullah needs to be removed from the border area, embargoed and dismantled,” the official said. “If the resolution is not implemented, we will have to take action to prevent the rearming of Hizbullah. I don’t think backtracking will serve any useful purpose. There has to be pressure on Hizbullah to disarm or there will have to be another round.”
Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is expected to raise the issue when she meets in New York on Wednesday with UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan.
Annan angered Israeli officials when he told Channel 2 on Tuesday that “dismantling Hizbullah is not the direct mandate of the UN,” which could only help Lebanon disarm the organization. Annan upset officials further when he said that deploying international forces in Lebanon would take “weeks or months,” and not days as expected.
Kofi Annan cannot be trusted and Israel will have NO CHOICE but to resume hostilities if Hezbollah does not begin or at least acquiesce to a disarming process Wednesday.
Flap thinks the cease-fire is as good as over – just like the Olmert government which may fall within days.
Captain Ed agrees with Flap.
Annan also miscalculated the Israeli impulse for a cessation of hostilities. He was under the impression that Israel had tired of the military option, but in reality Israel won everything it wanted in the action, especially under the terms of 1701. The Israelis still had plenty of will left to fight, but with the exception of pushing into the Bekaa, a further incursion past the Litani would have produced rapidly diminishing results. The Israelis want a sovereign Lebanese government to take responsibility for its own territory, and do not want to conduct another long occupation based on the lack of a partner in Beirut.
Don’t expect this cease-fire to last more than the next 24-48 hours. Annan himself managed to destroy it, and the UN Security Council will be hard pressed to make any more demands on the Israelis — which leaves them open to do whatever they think best without further interference.
Stay tuned……
Backdropped by a poster of Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, United Nations peacekeepers from France sit atop their armoured personnel carrier in the outskirts of the southern port city of Tyre, Lebanon, Tuesday, Aug. 15, 2006. The international community was scrambling Tuesday to put together a fortified U.N. peacekeeping force for southern Lebanon, as Israeli forces began a pullout that many fear could create a dangerous vacuum.
Previous:
Israel At War Watch: Hassan Nasrallah – The Disarmament of Hezbollah Should NOT Be Discussed Now
Israel at War Watch: The Arab Street Rejoices – Mocks Israel And United States
Israel at War Watch: Conversation With Benjamin Netanyahu – Hezbollah Will NOT Disarm
Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Cleric Ahmad Khatami Warns Israel of Missile Attack
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Cox & Forkum: Incoming
Cox & Forkum: Incoming
BCC News: Israeli papers turn on Olmert, army.
An onslaught of criticism greets the Israeli government in the country’s press, a day after the cease-fire in Lebanon between Hezbollah and the Israeli military came into force.Commentators note that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert failed to achieve the objectives that he had himself set out at the start of the fighting, primarily the release of the two Israeli soldiers abducted by Hezbollah and the destruction of Hezbollah’s fighting capacity.
The Jerusalem Post: The Olmert government must go by Caroline Glick. From all sides of the political spectrum calls are being raised for the establishment of an official commission of inquiry to investigate the Olmert government’s incompetent management of the war in Lebanon. These calls are misguided.
We do not need a commission to know what happened or what has to happen. The Olmert government has failed on every level. The Olmert government must go.
The Knesset must vote no confidence in this government and new elections must be carried out as soon as the law permits. If the Knesset hesitates in taking this required step, then the people of Israel must take to the streets in mass demonstrations and demand that our representatives send Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Defense Minister Amir Peretz and their comrades out to pasture. …
The UN cease-fire that Olmert, Livni and Peretz applaud undercuts Israel’s sovereignty; protects Hizbullah; lets Iran and Syria off the hook; lends credibility to our enemies’ belief that Israel can be destroyed; emboldens the Palestinians to launch their next round of war; and leaves IDF hostages Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev in captivity.
Indeed, put a fork in Prime Minister Olmert – HE IS DONE!
Technorati Tags: Cox&Forkum, Israel, Olmert
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Missile Defense Watch: United States and Israel Collaborating on Missile Defense
Northrop Grumman Corp. has developed Skyguard, a high-power laser system, to defend against air-based threats such as short-range ballistic missiles and rockets, artillery and mortars.
Reuters: “Star Wars” agency helps Israel on rocket threat
The Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency has begun working with Israel to help find ways to counter enemy rockets, a much shorter-range threat than the “Star Wars” mission to block ballistic missiles for which is it known, the head of the agency said on Tuesday.
“We have been working with the Israelis … as they go through with development of their own indigenous capabilities for that threat,” Air Force Lt. Gen. Henry Obering told reporters after a speech at a missile-defense conference here.
“That is not mature. That is still in development,” he said of the effort to defeat something he likened to mortar or artillery fire.
Missile Threat from the Claremont Institute has the history of the Israeli-American collaboration on the Tactical High Energy Laser System – THEL.
The Tactical High Energy Laser (THEL) is a joint project of the United States and Israel designed to destroy short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, ground- and air-launched rockets, unmanned aerial vehicles, mortar shells, and artillery projectiles. It consists of an advanced radar that detects and tracks incoming rockets, and a high-energy laser beam that destroys them.
Since the early 1980s, Israel has faced a constant threat from Hezbollah guerillas along its northern border. During eighteen years of fighting, the guerrillas wreaked havoc by firing numerous small, unguided Katyusha rockets at Israeli towns. The rockets were fast and low-flying and caused considerable damage. Hezbollah’s attacks were so numerous that Israel could not use interceptor missiles. In addition, since the Katyushas flew on ballistic trajectories and landed on Israeli towns unless completely destroyed, Israel could not deploy advanced machine guns such as those used by U.S. Navy ships against low-flying cruise missiles.
In 1995, the U.S. and Israel decided to address the growing problem of low-flying missiles by developing a high energy laser. The idea was to build a weapons system that could detect and eliminate threats at the speed of light while maintaining a low per-kill cost. Since Hezbollah was launching thousands of rockets, the defense system had to be capable of handling a large volume of attacks. In February 1996, the prototype U.S. high energy laser, known as Nautilus, destroyed a short-range rocket at a test site in New Mexico. It was the first time that a laser had ever destroyed a ballistic missile.
The Arrow anti-missile system is already deployed in Israel.
Missile Defense will be of increasing importance in protecting from strategic and tactical nuclear and conventional missiles. Deployment of a number of systems in the next few years will make Ronald Reagan’s vision of a missile shield for the United States and battlefield theaters a reality.
President Reagan Addresses the Nation from the oval office on National Security (Strategic Defense Initiative speech) March 23, 1983.
Stay tuned…..
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Missile Defense Watch: “Concept of Operations†To Be Done by Fall
Missile Defense Watch: Vandenberg Launches Minuteman III
Missile Defense Watch: White Sands THAAD Test – †This Is Phenomenalâ€
Missile Defense Watch: THAAD Successfully Intercepts Live Target
Technorati Tags: Israel, THEL, MissileDefenseAgency
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Israel At War Watch: Hassan Nasrallah – The Disarmament of Hezbollah Should NOT Be Discussed Now
Backdropped by a poster of Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, United Nations peacekeepers from France sit atop their armoured personnel carrier in the outskirts of the southern port city of Tyre, Lebanon, Tuesday, Aug. 15, 2006. The international community was scrambling Tuesday to put together a fortified U.N. peacekeeping force for southern Lebanon, as Israeli forces began a pullout that many fear could create a dangerous vacuum.
Following are excerpts from a speech delivered by Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, which aired on Al-Manar TV on August 14, 2006:
Hassan Nasrallah: We are facing a strategic and historic victory. This is no exaggeration. This is a victory for Lebanon – all of Lebanon – for the resistance, and for the entire Islamic nation.
And Flap is embedding the video below:
Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, had better re-read the text of the United Nations Security Council Resoultion 1701 that was adopted last Friday.
The text is here.
Note well:
OP3. Emphasizes the importance of the extension of the control of the government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory in accordance with the provisions of resolution 1559 (2004) and resolution 1680 (2006), and of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, for it to exercise its full sovereignty, so that there will be no weapons without the consent of the government of Lebanon and no authority other than that of the government of Lebanon;
OP8. Calls for Israel and Lebanon to support a permanent ceasefire and a long-term solution based on the following principles and elements:
- full respect for the Blue Line by both parties,
- security arrangements to prevent the resumption of hostilities, including the establishment between the Blue Line and the Litani river of an area free of any armed personnel, assets and weapons other than those of the government of Lebanon and of UNIFIL as authorized in paragraph 11, deployed in this area,
- full implementation of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, and of resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006), that require the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, so that, pursuant to the Lebanese cabinet decision of July 27, 2006, there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese state,
- no foreign forces in Lebanon without the consent of its government,
- no sales or supply of arms and related materiel to Lebanon except as authorized by its government,
- provision to the United Nations of all remaining maps of land mines in Lebanon in Israels possession;
Flap somehow thinks this matter will either end up at the United Nations Security Council door within a few weeks or the Israelis will be leafleting the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL to leave or be bombed.
If the international community wants Israel to stand down and be a reasonable state then they must be willing to enforce UNSC resolutions – with force, if need be.
Stay tuned…..
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Israel at War Watch: The Arab Street Rejoices – Mocks Israel And United States
Israel at War Watch: Conversation With Benjamin Netanyahu – Hezbollah Will NOT Disarm
Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Cleric Ahmad Khatami Warns Israel of Missile Attack
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Israel at War Watch: The Arab Street Rejoices – Mocks Israel And United States
Tehran against Israel throughout war
AP: Iran, Syria Praise Hezbollah, Mock U.S.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Tuesday that Hezbollah has “hoisted the banner of victory” over Israel and toppled U.S.-led plans for the Middle East. Hezbollah’s main backers Iran and Syria struck nearly identical tones a day after a cease-fire took effect in Lebanon: heaping praise on the guerrillas as perceived victors for the Islamic world and claiming that Western influence in the region was dealt a serious blow.
“God’s promises have come true,” Ahmadinejad told a huge crowd in Arbadil in northwestern Iran. “On one side, it’s corrupt powers of the criminal U.S. and Britain and the Zionists … with modern bombs and planes. And on the other side is a group of pious youth relying on God.”
Iranian bloviations but now the world’s attention now turns towards Iran’s uranium enrichment and nuclear weapons program.
In Damascus, Syrian President Syrian President Bashar Assad said Washington’s plans for the Middle East were turned into “an illusion” by Hezbollah’s resistance to the Israeli military during the 34-day conflict.
Israel “was defeated” and Hezbollah “hoisted the banner of victory,” Ahmadinejad told the crowd, including many people waving yellow Hezbollah banners and Iranian flags.
Ahmadinejad drew cheers when he said Hezbollah foiled what he called the plans of Washington and its allies “to create the so-called new Middle East.”
“The people of the region are also after the new Middle East, but a Middle East that is free from U.S. and British domination,” he said.
Oh, a Middle East dominated by the Iranian Mullahs and Muslim theocracy. A Middle East that forms by Shiite and Sunni theocracies and dedicated to the destruction of Israel.
And what kind of threat does Shiite Iran coveting nuclear weapons pose to the West and the United States?
A MAJOR ONE
Hezbollah demonstration in Tehran
However, the world of reality is more than the braggard “Arab Street.”
The cease-fire is only a few days old and if there is no compliance with United Nations resolutions 1701 or 1559, Flap expects Israel with a new Prime Minister to be at war with Hezbollah, Syria and Iran again – and in short order.
The next time the Mullahs may only rejoice their martyrs for Allah.
Stay tuned…….
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Israel at War Watch: Conversation With Benjamin Netanyahu – Hezbollah Will NOT Disarm
Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Cleric Ahmad Khatami Warns Israel of Missile Attack
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Israel at War Watch: Conversation With Benjamin Netanyahu – Hezbollah Will NOT Disarm
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s former Prime Minister and leader of Israel’s opposition Likud party, gestures during his interview with the Associated Press in London, Tuesday Aug. 8, 2006. Netanyahu said Europe must accept unpleasant realities in the Middle East, arguing Tuesday that Israel is merely the first target in a worldwide terrorism campaign waged by Islamic militants.
Powerline: Half hour with Benjamin Netanyahu
Netanyahu stated categorically that Hezbollah will not disarm itself and that the forces sent into south Lebanon under the cease-fire agreement will not disarm Hezbollah. In this connection, I asked the former Prime Minister whether he viewed Israel as bound by the cease-fire agreement to wait for the next attack (at the time of Hezbollah’s and Iran’s choosing) or whether Israel is free to act if (when) it finds that Hezbollah has not disarmed and that the international force and the Lebanese army are not taking effective action. Netanyahu replied that the cease-fire agreement permits Israel to take defensive action to protect itself. He acknowledged that there can be much debate over what that means, but (as I understood his answer) the concept does not necessarily preclude preemptive action.
The cease-fire looks short-lived…..
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Israel at War Watch: Fauxtography FLAP
Ray Patnaude writes: Thanks for the kind words about my illustration for Glenn’s article today. That image, like all illustrations at TCS Daily are done by me- Ray Patnaude, Art Director for TCS (except when I am on vacation and such). I’m glad you liked it, it was a fun challenge to try to deliberately do *really*, comically bad Photoshop, leaving stray pixels everywhere, and sloppy cutout lines. I am particularly proud of the checkered Photoshop background visible behind some replicated smoke. And of course Mickey’s pose perfectly mocks Professional House-Got-Knocked-Down Woman’s.
TCS: Don’t Trust If They Won’t Verify
Once again, fake news is in the news, as it turns out that many moving stories of carnage in Lebanon were not only moving, but, well, fake. This raises major questions about the future of the news business, and offers a significant threat to free expression. As Tim Rutten observed in the Los Angeles Times.
Trust but verify is true in nuclear negotiations and journalism.
President Reagan’s words were never more true:
It’s still trust but verify. It’s still play, but cut the cards. It’s still watch closely. And don’t be afraid to see what you see.
Flap is pleased that the blogosphere is keeping the media manipulators, governments,terrorists and the propagandists honest.
Technorati Tags: Reuters
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Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Cleric Ahmad Khatami Warns Israel of Missile Attack
Iranian cleric Hojatoleslam Ahmad Khatami speaks at Tehran University in February 2006. Khatami has vowed a harsh response in case of a showdown with the West over Tehran’s controversial nuclear programme and said Iran would not abide by “bullying” Security Council resolutions.
AP: Iranian Warns Israel to Fear Missiles
An Iranian hard-line cleric warned Israel on Tuesday that Iran’s long-range missiles will land in Tel Aviv if the Jewish state attacks Iran, state-run television reported.
Ahmad Khatami, a mid-ranking cleric, said Israel should bear in mind its monthlong war with Lebanon’s Hezbollah guerrillas before considering any threats against Iran.
Boasting that Hezbollah’s 40-mile range missiles “turned Israel into a country of ghosts,” Khatami declared that Israel would face dire consequences if it “makes an iota of aggression against Iran.”
“They must fear the day (Iran’s) 2,000-kilometer (1,250-mile) range missiles land in the heart of Tel Aviv,” he said.
Israel does fear the mid-range missiles of Iran. But, they have missile defenses and are deploying more – and fast.
And……
As the United States THAAD missiles begin manufacture and deployment, Flap is sure that this missile system will be sold to Israel.
THAAD Mobile Launchers
And, of course, Israel possesses nuclear weapons as a deterrent.
The world has no illusions that Israel would not hesitate to “NUKE” Tehran or the Natanz uranium enrichment facility if a strategic threat to Israel’s existence was perceived.
Khatami’s comment about Iran’s long-range capabilities appeared to refer to an upgraded version of its Shahab-3 missile, which is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and reaching Israel and U.S. bases in the Middle East.
Iran’s military test-fired a series of missiles during large-scale war games in the Persian Gulf in March and April including a missile not detectable by radar that can use multiple warheads to hit several targets simultaneously, a development that raised concerns in the United States and Israel.
Stay tuned for the August 22nd response to the P-5-Plus-1 proposal and the UNSC deadline of August 31.
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The Natanz uranium enrichment complex in Natanz is pictured in this January 2, 2006 satellite image.
Technorati Tags: Iran, Ahmadinejad
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Israel at War Watch: Hezbollah Likely To Retain Weapons
Weapons captured by the IDF in Bint Jbail.
JPost:Hizbullah likely to retain weapons
Hizbullah will not hand over its weapons to the Lebanese government but rather refrain from exhibiting them publicly, according to a new compromise that is reportedly brewing between Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Seniora and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
The UN cease-fire resolution specifically demands the demilitarization of the area south of the Litani river. The resolution was approved by the Lebanese cabinet.
Well, either United Nations resolutions 1701 and 1559 will be enforced or they won’t. Is there any reason for the international community to ask Israel to stand down hostilities when Hezbollah and the Lebanese government immediately refuse to abide by agreed upon terms?
NO REASON AT ALL.
Flap fears that despite diplomatic efforts to disarm Hezbollah that this terrorist threat will remain to fight Israel another day. Hezbollah now will restock and resupply arms, including rockets and missiles from Syria and Iran, dig buners, reconfigure command and control and prepare for the next war.
In a televised address on Monday night, Nasrallah declared that now was not the time to debate the disarmament of his guerrilla fighters, saying the issue should be done in secret sessions of the government to avoid serving Israeli interests.
“This is immoral, incorrect and inappropriate,” he said. “It is wrong timing on the psychological and moral level particularly before the cease-fire,” he said in reference to calls from critics for the guerrillas to disarm.
According to Lebanon’s defense minister, Elias Murr, “There will be no other weapons or military presence other than the army” after Lebanese troops move south of the Litani. However, he then contradicted himself by saying the army would not ask Hizbullah to hand over its weapons.
The United States should immediately insist that U.N. Resolutions 1701 and 1559 be enforced. If Hezbollah violates the terms, then as a member of the U.N. Security Council, the United States should bring forward a Chapter 7 resolution empowering the U.N. peacekeepers to force Hezbollah to surrender their weapons.
Does Flap think this will EVER happen?
NOPE
So, what does the future hold?
Israel will withdraw from southern Lebanon without meeting its strategic objectives. The UNIFIL and Lebanese Army will do NOTHING to restrain Hezbollah from re-arming. A new Prime Minister and new Israeli government will eventually move troops back to Lebanon to finish the job that Omert and the United States failed to do.
And the United Nations?
U.N resolutions are worthless and why the United States continues to participate is beyond belief.
Israeli troops return to Israel from southern Lebanon near the border village of Malkiya in northern Israel Tuesday Aug. 15, 2006. Israel has begun thinning its troops in southern Lebanon, to prepare the handover of captured positions to a U.N. force, possibly within days, the army and media report.
Murr added that Lebanon’s contribution of 15,000 soldiers could be on the north side of the Litani River by the end of the week.
He noted that international forces could begin arriving next week to bolster the current 2,000-member UN force in southern Lebanon, which watched helplessly as fighting raged over the past month.
In Europe, Italy and France have pledged troops. Malaysia, Turkey and Indonesia were among the mostly Muslim nations offering help.
Will these forces do anything but take up space?
Doubtful…..
Captain Ed has Lebanon Balking At The Terms
The goals for Israel have always been a Hezbollah-free sub-Litani without having to conduct another generational occupation. They got the agreement they wanted that delivers on these goals, and at the same time served notice that the era of non-response to provocations had passed. The key for Israel is to insist on full implementation of 1701 and 1559. They cannot budge on these points. If Lebanon reneges, Israel can go back to their military options until the Lebanese get the message for good.
Israeli soldiers smile as they walk down a dirt road returning from southern Lebanon in northern Israel near the Lebanese-Israeli border early Tuesday, Aug. 15, 2006.
Stay tuned……
Previous:
Israel at War Watch: President Bush – Israel Defeated Hezbollah
Michael Ramirez on Iran’s Proxy Hezbollah
Israel at War Watch: The Cease-Fire – Disarming Hezbollah
Israel at War Watch: Lebanon Falters Over Cease-Fire
Israel at War Watch: Israeli Cabinet Approves United Nations Cease-Fire
Israel at War Watch: Israeli-Hezbollah Cease-Fire Begins Monday
Israel at War Watch: Israeli Troops Reach Latani River – Will Cease-Fire 7 AM Monday
Israel at War Watch: Israeli Prime Minister Olmert Has Accepted United Nations Cease-Fire Deal
Israel at War Watch: United Nations Security Council Resolution to End War?
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Day By Day by Chris Muir August 15, 2006
