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Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE – House

cox&forkum06.11.05web

Election Projection has final United States House Election 2006 Projections:

electionprjectionnovember6a

Current: 232 GOP, 202 DEM, 1 IND
Projected: 208 GOP, 227 DEM, 0 IND
DEM +25, GOP -24, IND -1

Election Projection is forecasting a net loss of 25 House seats and loss of GOP control of the House. While this is a pessimistic account, I do not forsee any other likely scenario. Here is Election Projections summary of the race:

Summary of Contested House Races

State Major Candidates Projected Result
Arizona – CD 1 Rick Renzi (R)-inc vs Ellen Simon (D) Weak GOP Hold
Arizona – CD 5 J.D. Hayworth (R)-inc vs Harry Mitchell (D) Weak DEM Gain
Arizona – CD 8 OPEN: R. Graf (R) vs G. Giffords (D) Mod DEM Gain
California – CD 11 Richard Pombo (R)-inc vs Jerry McNerny (D) Weak GOP Hold
Colorado – CD 4 M. Musgrave (R)-inc vs A. Paccione (D) Weak GOP Hold
Colorado – CD 7 OPEN: O’Donnell (R) vs Perlmutter (D) Weak DEM Gain
Conn – CD 2 Rob Simmons (R)-inc vs Joe Courtney (D) Weak DEM Gain
Conn – CD 4 Chris Shays (R)-inc vs Diane Farrell (D) Weak GOP Hold
Conn – CD 5 Nancy Johnson (R)-inc vs Chris Murphy (D) Weak DEM Gain
Florida – CD 13 OPEN: V. Buchanan (R) vs C. Jennings (D) Weak DEM Gain
Florida – CD 16 OPEN: J. Negron (R) vs T. Mahoney (D) Weak DEM Gain
Florida – CD 22 Clay Shaw (R)-inc vs Ron Klein (D) Weak DEM Gain
Georgia – CD 8 Jim Marshall (D)-inc vs “Mac” Collins (R) Weak DEM Hold
Georgia – CD 12 John Barrow (D)-inc vs Max Burns (R) Weak DEM Hold
Idaho – CD 1 Sali (R)-inc vs Grant (D) Weak GOP Hold
Illinois – CD 6 OPEN: P. Roskam(R)-inc vs T. Duckworth(D) Weak GOP Hold
Illinois – CD 8 M. Bean (D)-inc vs D. McSweeney (R) Weak DEM Hold
Indiana – CD 2 Chris Chocola (R)-inc vs Joseph Donnelly (D) Weak DEM Gain
Indiana – CD 8 John Hostettler (R)-inc vs Brad Ellsworth (D) Mod DEM Gain
Indiana – CD 9 Michael Sodrel (R)-inc vs Baron Hill (D) Weak GOP Hold
Iowa – CD 1 OPEN: Mike Whalen (R) vs Bruce Braley (D) Mod DEM Gain
Kentucky – CD 3 Anne Northup (R)-inc vs John Yarmuth (D) Weak GOP Hold
Kentucky – CD 4 Geoff Davis (R)-inc vs Ken Lucas (D) Weak GOP Hold
Minnesota – CD 1 Gil Gutknecht, Jr. (R) vs Tim Walz (D) Weak GOP Hold
Minnesota – CD 6 OPEN: M. Bachmann (R) vs P. Wetterling (D) Weak GOP Hold
Nevada – CD 3 Jon Porter (R) vs Tessa Hafen (D) Porter +4.8
New Hamp – CD 2 Charles Bass (R)-inc vs Paul Hodes (D) Weak DEM Gain
New Mexico – CD 1 Heather Wilson (R)-inc vs Patricia Madrid (D) Weak DEM Gain
New York – CD 19 Sue Kelly (R)-inc vs John Hall (D) Weak GOP Hold
New York – CD 20 John Sweeney (R)-inc vs Kirsten Gillibrand (D) Weak DEM Gain
New York – CD 24 OPEN: R. Meier (R) vs M. Arcuri (D) Weak DEM Gain
New York – CD 25 James Walsh (R)-inc vs Dan Maffei (D) Weak GOP Hold
New York – CD 26 Thomas Reynolds (R)-inc vs Jack Davis (D) Weak GOP Hold
New York – CD 29 Randy Kuhl (R)-inc vs Eric Massa (D) Weak GOP Hold
N. Carolina – CD 8 Robin Hayes (R)-inc vs Larry Kissell (D) Weak GOP Hold
N. Carolina – CD 11 Charles Taylor (R)-inc vs Heath Shuler (D) Weak DEM Gain
Ohio – CD 1 Steve Chabot (R)-inc vs John Cranley (D) Weak DEM Gain
Ohio – CD 2 Jean Schmidt (R)-inc vs Wuslin (D) Weak GOP Hold
Ohio – CD 15 Deborah Pryce (R)-inc vs Mary Jo Kilroy (D) Weak DEM Gain
Ohio – CD 18 OPEN: Joy Padgett (R) vs Zack Space (D) Weak DEM Gain
Penn – CD 4 Melissa Hart (R)-inc vs Jason Altmire (D) Weak GOP Hold
Penn – CD 6 Jim Gerlach (R)-inc vs Lois Murphy (D) Weak DEM Gain
Penn – CD 7 Curt Weldon (R)-inc vs Joseph Sestak (D) Weak DEM Gain
Penn – CD 8 M. Fitzpatrick (R)-inc vs P. Murphy (D) Weak GOP Hold
Penn – CD 10 Don Sherwood (R)-inc vs Chris Carney (D) Weak DEM Gain
Texas – CD 22 OPEN: Sekula-Gibbs (R-WI) vs Lampson (D) Weak DEM Gain
Vermont – CD 1 OPEN: P. Welch (D) vs M. Rainville (R) Mod DEM Gain
Virginia CD-2 Thelma Drake (R)-inc vs Philip Kellam (D) Weak GOP Hold
Washington – CD 8 Dan Reichert (R)-inc vs Darcy Burner (D) Weak GOP Hold
Wisconsin – CD 8 OPEN: John Gard (R) vs Steve Kagen (D) Weak DEM Gain
Wyoming – CD 1 Barbara Cubin (R)-inc vs Gary Trauner (D) Weak GOP Hold
BOLD – party turnover

Race ratings:

  • “Weak” – less than 5%
  • “Mod” – 5% to 15%
  • “Strong” – greater than 15%
  • For projected margins of victory, click here

    The Real Clear Politics House Summary chart is here.

    Current House (232 R, 202 D, 1 I): Democrats Need to Pick Up 15 Seats For Control
    Republican Seats
    Leans Dem (13)
    Toss Up (14)
    Leans GOP (21)
    Leans GOP (0)
    Toss Up (2)
    Leans Dem (4)




     

     

    The GOP House Debacle has arrived. Robert Novak has a conservative loss of 18 seats for the GOP. His analysis is here.

    The next Speaker of the House will be Nancy Pelosi (D-California).

    For election night coverage NZ Bear at Truth Laid Bear has set up an election tracker page here.

    Previous:

    Election 2006 Watch: THE ARRIVING GOP DEBACLE – Senate

    United States House 2006 Election Watch: Rush Limbaugh and the Coming GOP DEBACLE

    Michael Ramirez on the Coming GOP Debacle

    United States House 2006 Election Watch: SEA OF BLUE

    Election 2006 Watch: The Coming Republican DEBACLE


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