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Rudy Giuliani Watch: California LIKELY To Move Presidential Primary to February 5
Readers: Please Vote in Flap’s January 2008 GOP Presidential Poll
Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, left, and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger appear at a news conference to announce their support for the city’s bid to host the 2016 Summer Olympics. Both favor moving the California Presidential primary election to Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008.
Los Angeles Times:State aims for Feb. 5 primary to boost cloutThe move from June 3 would give California more influence in the 2008 presidential race.
With Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s backing, state lawmakers from both parties are moving rapidly to make California a player in choosing the nation’s next president by holding the state’s primary four months earlier.
A bipartisan group of state senators introduced legislation Friday to change the 2008 presidential primary from June 3 to Feb. 5. Another bill was introduced by an Assembly Republican on Thursday, the day after Schwarzenegger declared that moving up the primary date would make California “relevant” nationally and was “something to shoot for.”
The February date — the earliest the state can choose under national party rules — would place California at the beginning of the election season, right after four states that have secured the most privileged spots in January for their Democratic caucuses or primaries: Iowa (Jan. 14), Nevada (Jan. 19), New Hampshire (Jan. 22) and South Carolina (Jan. 29). The Republican calendar has Iowa and New Hampshire first, with the rest of the schedule in flux.
Contenders, who now bypass California except to raise money, would be forced to establish real presences here.
There appears to be bi-partisan support for the move to Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008.
So, who benefits?
Rudy Giuliani
The latest California poll results are here:
California:
Giuliani 33%
Gingrich 19%
McCain 18%
Hagel 5%
Romney 3%
Hunter 1%
Undecided 22%The move favors the well-organized and well-funded:
It could cost as much as $8 million for each candidate, very early in the contest. But a second-tier candidate in Iowa and New Hampshire could get his or her momentum back in California very quickly.
Giuliani is leading in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire but a California win – a GOP winner take all primary – would give him the Big MO going into conservative Southern States where McCain may have more strength. Or could deliver a knock-out blow.
And where will Governor Schwarzenegger be?Who is speaking at the Schwarzenegger controlled California Republican Party Convention luncheon in two weeks?
Rudy Giuliani
So, what does Hizzoner have to do?
Raise the $8-10 million for the coming California media campaign.
Stay tuned………
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (C) speaks at a news conference as he is joined by California’s Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (L) and Los Angeles County Sheriff Lee Baca (R) in Santa Monica, California, August 17, 2006, urging California voters to support Proposition 83, Jessica’s Law on the November 2006 ballot. Proposition 83 calls for electronically monitoring sex offenders for life via a GPS system as well as allowing prosecutors to charge criminals who posses child pornography with a felony.
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President 2008 Watch: Newsweek Poll – Giuliani and McCain Beating Hillary ET Al?
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Latest Post-ABC Poll Giuliani Leads
Rudy Giuliani Watch: ARG Poll – Giuliani Leads 7 of 8 States Including California
Rudy Giuliani Watch: New Hampshire Events Scheduled Next Week
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Giuliani’s Team to EXPAND and REVAMP Campaign Operation
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rasmussen Poll – Giuliani Leads
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Giuliani and Edwards Top Latest Iowa Poll
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Giuliani’s Inner Circle
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Giuliani – The United States Should NOT Leave Iraq in Chaos
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Soul-Searching, Waiting or Campaigning SMART?
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Giuliani Tests Delaware Presidential Primary Waters
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Giuliani Leading in North Carolina Poll
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Giuliani and Gingrich – GETTING IRAQ TO WORK
Technorati Tags: RudyGiulianiArnoldSchwarzenegger
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President 2008 Watch: Newsweek Poll – Giuliani and McCain Beating Hillary ET Al?
Readers: Please Vote in Flap’s January 2008 GOP Presidential Poll
NEWSWEEK Poll
Jan. 17-18, 2007. Conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International.
Patrick Ruffini slaps down Newsweek magazine’s latest presidential poll.
Newsweek’s Results:
Newsweek shows Hillary leading John McCain by 1 and trailing Rudy Giuliani by 1. John Edwards’ advantage over McCain and Giuliani is 5 and 3 points respectively. Obama leads McCain by 2 and trails Giuliani by 2.
In polling against Hillary, both leading Republicans capture more of their base than any Democrat does their base, while generally getting more of the independent vote. So, the Party breakdown of registered voters in this poll comes as no surprise:
Republican 26%
Democrat 37%
Independent 33%
No party/Not interested 2%
Other party *
Don’t know 2%
That’s right, the poll is +11D, and there are suddenly 30% less Republicans than there were last November.
The Clinton Media machine is at work already. Flap knows it will be a long two years before the presidential election and at this time the internals of polls best be highlighted rather than covered up.
So, is the Newsweek poll accurate?
NO WAY
Ruffini provides the corrected totals (results which by the way are consistent with other national polls):
How would these results look if the responses were re-weighted to reflect the makeup of the electorate in 2006, an overwhelmingly Democratic year?
Giuliani 51.8% – Clinton 44.6%
McCain 50.5% – Clinton 45.2%Giuliani 50.6% – Obama 42.5%
McCain 47.4% – Obama 44.4%Giuliani 49.3% – Edwards 45.2%
McCain 47.2% – Edwards 45.9%A little different, wouldn’t you say?
Amazing?
There should be NO MORE Newsweek spin/manipulation of polling data to help the Clintons or any other candidate. Just report the poll and release the internals readily available online.
This isn’t the Washington Post and the days of the MSM before the internet. Get real…….
Stay tuned………
Technorati Tags: Newsweek, PatrcikRuffini, RudyGiuliani, JohnMcCain, HillaryClinton, BarackObama, JohnEdwards
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Rudy Giuliani Watch: Latest Post-ABC Poll Giuliani Leads
Readers: Please Vote in Flap’s January 2008 GOP Presidential Poll
Washington Post: Post-ABC Poll: Clinton, Giuliani Lead Primary Fields
On the Republican side, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani held a 34 percent to 27 percent lead over Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), with no other potential candidate registering in double digits. Former Gov. Mitt Romney (Mass.) and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) took nine percent each. Sen. Sam Brownback, who formally entered the race today, stood at one percent in the poll.
The poll question:
(ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) If the 2008 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were: (Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Chuck Hagel, Tommy Thompson, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, George Pataki, Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Jim Gilmore, or Ron Paul), for whom would you vote?
The Results:
NET LEANED VOTE:
Post-ABC Poll January 19, 2007 GOP Candidate 1/19/07 12/11/06 Rudy Giuliani 34 34 John McCain 27 26 Mitt Romney 9 5 Newt Gingrich 9 12 George Pataki 2 3 Sam Brownback 1 1 Jim Gilmore 1 NA Mike Huckabee 1 * Ron Paul 1 NA Tom Tancredo 1 * Tommy Thompson 1 2 Chuck Hagel * * Duncan Hunter * 1 Other (vol.) * * None of these (vol.) 2 6 Would not vote (vol.) 1 * No opinion 9 9 Mayor Giuliani continues to lead with McCain continuing to lag by more than five points. Romney has made some gains but Brownback’s announcement today can do nothing but hurt McCain (Brownback is anti-Iraq War surge) and Romney (Brownback appeals to social conservatives, like Mormon Romney).
With Hillary’s announcement today and the latest polling showing her behind in Iowa and New Hampshire, the INTERESTING primary may be on the Democrat side.
Stay tuned as Hizzoner travels next week to New Hampshire.
Previous:
Rudy Giuliani Watch: ARG Poll – Giuliani Leads 7 of 8 States Including California
Rudy Giuliani Watch: New Hampshire Events Scheduled Next Week
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Giuliani’s Team to EXPAND and REVAMP Campaign Operation
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Rasmussen Poll – Giuliani Leads
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Giuliani and Edwards Top Latest Iowa Poll
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Giuliani’s Inner Circle
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Giuliani – The United States Should NOT Leave Iraq in Chaos
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Soul-Searching, Waiting or Campaigning SMART?
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Giuliani Tests Delaware Presidential Primary Waters
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Giuliani Leading in North Carolina Poll
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Giuliani and Gingrich – GETTING IRAQ TO WORK
Technorati Tags: RudyGiuliani
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Hillary Clinton Watch: Clinton – I’m “IN TO WIN”
AP: Hillary Clinton launches White House bid
Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton launched a trailblazing campaign for the White House on Saturday, a former first lady turned political powerhouse intent on becoming the first female president. “I’m in, and I’m in to win,” she said.
In a videotaped message posted on her Web site, Clinton said she was eager to start a dialogue with voters about challenges she hoped to tackle as president — affordable health care, deficit reduction and bringing the “right” end to the
Iraq war.“I’m not just starting a campaign, though, I’m beginning a conversation with you, with America,” she said. “Let’s talk. Let’s chat. The conversation in Washington has been just a little one-sided lately, don’t you think?”
The Video and Website is here:An interesting announcement by Hillary Clinton – in that it was unconventional yet novel like Barack Obama’s earlier in the week.
There was no physical announcement and news conference where the candidate appeared. Flap knows the internet is the future but the fact that she was not “in the flesh” announcing was a little weird. And, of course, no press questions.
The timing of her announcement looks “FORCED.” Obama announced on Tuesday and there has been alot of BUZZ on his candidacy. But, for Hillary to announce early Saturday morning while most internet site administrators were sleeping was not smart. Sure, her announcement will make the Sunday newspapers but who cares?
There does not appear to be any coordination with center-left blogs in the blogosphere. Flap’s cursory view of majoe lefty blogs mention the announcement but are ho-hum about it. Some even pronounce that if after examining Hillary’s stance on the issues they support her they will let everyone know. So, no coordination with the NUTROOT LEFT – not even BlogAds on any of the blogs. Does Hillary’s campaign have a problem here?
A reporter watches US Democratic Senator from New York Hillary Clinton announcing on her website her decision to take the first step toward a 2008 White House bid that could make her the first woman president of the United States.
How does this affect the GOP candidates for President?
The answer: Fundraising
The GOP donors will be jump-started to pick the best candidate to beat Hillary, Obama or Edwards and/or any combination of the three.
One other tidbit that Hotline noticed as did Flap:
What does that mean?
Because the limit on individual contributions is $2100 per election, it means that Clinton is raising money for two accounts — her primary account and a general election account.
In other words — Clinton becomes the first candidate to officially acknowledge that she won’t accept federal matching funds for either the primary and the general election.
Some information albeit dated from the 2004 election but most still valid on the fundraising rules is here. Of course, if Hillary does not accept federal matching funds then she does not ned to abide by the spending restrictions imposed by them. Since she is behind in Iowa and New Hampshire, she may need to spend big. And, if the Democrat primary season splits she will need to spend big in California (particularly since Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has indicated a willingness to change the California primary election to early February) to win those delegates.
Here is a New York Times piece on the fight for Democrat campaign donations.
Stay tuned for Hillary’s busy schedule:
Tomorrow: Event in New York – Chelsea-Clinton Community Center
Senator Clinton will be joined by Barbra E. Minch, President & CEO, William F. Ryan Community Health Network and Dr. Irwin Redlener, the president and co-founder of The Children’s Health Fund to discuss legislation that would expand the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP).
Monday Night:
Beginning Monday night, Clinton will host a series of video podcasts on her website – Hillary will answer your questions in a discussion streamed live over the Internet.
Previous:
Barack Obama Watch: Hillary Strikes Back – Barack a MUSLIM But Concealed IT
Barack Obama Watch: David Geffen and Hollywood Heavyweights Backing Obama
Hillary Clinton Watch: Clinton Heads Off to IraqHillary Clinton Watch: Barack Obama’s Presidential Candidacy Will Diminish
Hillary Clinton Watch: Clearing the Field
Rudy Giuliani Watch: Giuliani Continues to Lead Clinton, Gore
Hillary Clinton Watch: Iraq War – “Wouldn’t Have Voted That Wayâ€
Technorati Tags: HillaryClinton
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Day By Day by Chris Muir January 20, 2007