Giuliani Notes: Hotline – Rudy Number One
2008 Race Rankings: Giuliani’s In The Lead
The Hotline’s Marc Ambinder and NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd will collaborate on race rankings until we don’t.
We’ve got a new No. 1 this week, and it reflects several realities. For one thing, there’s a deep hunger on the Republican side for a candidate who can rebrand the party after seven-plus years of President Bush. Also, the issue stuff just doesn’t seem to be hurting Rudy Giuliani yet, and we can’t help but think that the early predictions of his doom were overstated.
These rankings are ordered by likelihood of winning the Republican primary and are based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling. Click here for Democratic rankings.
1. Rudy Giuliani Last Ranking: 2
There are three distinct camps among those Republicans who don’t think Giuliani will win the nomination: the McCain camp, the Huckabee camp and the Arlington camp. The McCain camp believes questions about Giuliani’s business practices and his personal character will disqualify him, and that his liberal positions on issues will be the coup de grace. The MSM is mostly in this camp. The Huckabee camp believes Giuliani is objectively too liberal to be the nominee and will not vote for him. The Arlington camp doesn’t know whether Giuliani will be elected but worries — for the sake of its organizations’ bottom lines — how a social liberal would affect the power and influence of organized conservative interests. If the election were held tomorrow, Giuliani would win. He doesn’t have McCain’s organizational strength, money, or endorsements, but he has a solid and growing lead in national polls. And so far, he’s repelled some fairly devastating attacks (like the notion that he does not speak to his son).
Fundraising projection: $15 million, +/- $3 million. Fundraising ranking: 3.
*****
Hotline is merely parroting the polls that show Rudy in firm control, particularly in states that vote on Super Duper Tuesday, February 5, 2008.
Hizzoner does not have to win Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina to be a viable candidate on February 5th. But, today, he EVEN contends in these states.
Watch the fundraising numbers this next week.
If McCain’s numbers are NOT good, no matter what spin his campaign churns, the race may be over for him.
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