Giuliani NotesPresident 2008Rudy Giuliani

Giuliani Notes: Rudy 35% McCain 16% Romney 10% Gingrich 9% Thompson 8% in Latest Fox News Poll

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Fox News: The Fox News Poll

Polling was conducted by telephone April 17-18, 2007, in the evenings. The total sample is 900 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted. LV = likely voters
The GOP NUTS:

Multi-candidate Field:

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Note: In this poll McCain is declining after a few weeks of even performance in the 20 percentile range and Romney has gained a bit, while Rudy is maintaining his double digit lead. Fred Thompson is making some impact but is not catching fire.

First and Second GOP choices:

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Note: The Mayor continues an overwhelming lead.

The Big Four Poll:

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Note: Giuliani leads McCain by 21 points and Romney by 30 of all voters. In the GOP voters his lead is higher – in the 30 plus point range.

Now, let’s look at favorability ratings:

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Note:

Rudy leads the field – as he has done for weeks.

Hillary Clinton has more unfavorable opinions than any of the other Democrat candidates in the field.

Mitt Romney albeit remaining an unknown has more unfavorable opinions than favorable.

GOP Party has more unfavorable than favorable.

Analysis:

So, what does all of this mean?

Rudy continues to lead the field by double digits, remains highest in favorability with voters, his GOP opponents are not threatening and his main general election opponent Hillary Clinton has the highest unfavorability rating of any Democrat.

Fundraising should pick up for Hizzoner as the institutional GOP donors realize that McCain, Romney, nor Thompson will be able to beat Rudy.

Flap’s predictions have been:

1. McCain will fade by Labor Day 2007 and withdraw before the first primary

2. Thompson will NOT enter the race

3. Gingrich will NOT enter the race

The early primary season will be Rudy vs. Romney and will be over on February 5, 2008 when Rudy buries Romney electorally on Super Duper Tuesday.

The Real Clear Politics Averages are:

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