USA TODAY/Gallup Poll

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,010 National Adults, aged 18+, conducted May 4-6, 2007.

The GOP NUTS:

Without Newt Gingrich in the candidate mix:

Head to Head: Rudy vs. McCain

The Mayor continues a double digit lead in this national poll, taken after the GOP debate last week.

Again, neither Romney nor Thompson poll well enough to displace McCain who is safely in second place.

As Flap wrote earlier today, the Giuliani Campaign feels very good about their polling position at this time.

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MSNBC, POLITICO BIASED AGAINST RUDY IN GOP DEBATE

Thursday’s Republican debate, hosted by MSNBC and Politico.com was biased against Republican front runner Rudy Giuliani. A count of the words each candidate spoke indicates that Romney was given 50% more air time and McCain 25% more that Giuliani was permitted.

Romney spoke 2300 words to McCain’s 2030 to Giuliani 1603. When the airtime is os heavily skewed in favor of the 2nd and 3rd place candidates against the front runner, one is entitled to ask why. With more than 1/3 of the Republican backing Giuliani and interested in what he has to say what journalistic justification is there for giving him less face time than his two leading rivals.

The Democratic Party has been concentrating its fire on Rudy for months now and this effort by two Democratic news organs to short change Giuliani is part of the process of trying to defeat the only Republican who can win in November.

Flap certainly did not count the words but Hotline counted the number of questions and Romney had the edge:

With ten political candidates it is hard to maintain control and fairness in any debate format.  However, Chris Matthews, a former Democrat operative (presidential speech writer for President Jimmy Carter and staff aide of Democrat Speaker Tip O’Neill) did a horrible job in moderating the forum.

Was MSNBC and Politico blatantly biased?

Probably not – but that was the result and Rudy Giuliani was punished.

The candidates, including the Mayor should insist that their next debates have a more fair method of distributing questions and be guaranteed equal time to respond.  Plus, aren’t there any retired GOP politicos who can moderate?

How about former Californa Governor Pete Wilson, Senator Alan Simpson or Senator Phil Gramm?

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Poll: Giuliani, McCain lead the pack

A year and a half before the 2008 presidential election, Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain are leading the Republican pack, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll out Monday.

Asked whom they would most likely support for the Republican nomination, 25 percent of people who identified themselves as Republicans or leaning Republican cited the former mayor of New York and 23 percent cited the senator from Arizona.

The poll is here.

The GOP NUTS:

The race is tightening but in delegate-rich early primary states the Mayor has double digit leads.

In this poll, when Fred Thompson is excluded the Mayor leaps to a 5 point lead.  When Newt Gingrich is excluded, then the Mayor’s lead shrinks to one point over McCain and Fred Thompson leaps to 15 points.

So, will Thompson get in and will Romney be able to stay in?

Here are the national GOP Real Clear Politics averages:

Stay tuned…….

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Former New York Mayor and Presidential candidate and Mrs. Rudy Giuliani in Simi Valley, California, May 3, 2007. Standing next to the Mayor is Anaheim, California Mayor Curt Pringle.

The Giuliani campaign has sponsored another blogger conference call this morning/afternoon with Giuliani Campaign Manager Michael DuHaime and Communications Director Katie Levinson.

Patrick Ruffini hosted the call.

Matt David (left) and Katie Levinson are top communications staffers on the governor’s campaign. Eric Luse photo courtesy of San Francisco Chronicle

Katie Levinson:

I would like to give you an update on Rudy schedule wise and what we have been talking about with a message perspective.

After the debate on Thursday night, Rudy headed to Cedar, Rapids, Iowa, where he did a Townhall and talked about the repeal of the “Death Tax.”

He, then, headed to The Citadel where he delivered the commencement address.

Tonight, he will be speaking at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

Later this week, he will head to Alabama, then back to New York and then to Florida.

********

The campaign has been focusing on Rudy’s record in New York City. He had a very strong track record of success, bringing crime down, turning the economy around and really ceaning the city up – making it a liveable city again. We are trying to bring this message across the country. And let people know what kind of job Rudy did as Mayor.

This is something we will certainly talk about prior to the next debate in South Carolina and in early June in New Hampshire.

********

Michael Duhaime in the “Spin Room” at the Reagan Presidential Library Debate, May 3, 2007.

Michael DuHaime:

Just on polling and where we are right now….the race has settled into a place where we expected it all along. There were three national polls last seek and our average lead was 10 points and we feel very good where things have settled in and not surprising where they are right now. In a field as large as it is, I feel it is a good place for us to be.

Also, in the early primary states, the first three are close and are likely to be close down to the wire and will go back and forth on those. If you average them all, they are all close.

Obviously with Florida’s move , it is a significant thing. With the move before February 5th, the most recent polling shows double digit leads for the Mayor and in some cases more than 20 point leads – which is certainly encouraging for us.

And with the moves of New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and California to February 5th certainly alters the dynamic in all those states where the Mayor has double digit leads – with California being in the low teens and New York, New Jersey being more considerable than that. With other states, February 5th will be an important day for everybody.

Then, you have a regional primary on February 12th perhaps Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia.

Obviously, the front-loading of all of this means a tremendous amounts of resources that you have to raise.

But, we feel very good about the Mayor’s record, polling we see and our overall electoral strength.

Bloggers Questions:

Flap will update this post throughout the day with the Q/A with the bloggers.

Update:

1. Question from Jennifer Rubin (free-lance writer NRO and the American Thinker):

Mike, you talked about moving up of the primaries.  Does anything about this concern you?  And have you adjusted either your travel plans or your organization or your spending patterns to reflect all of the states that are now moving up?

Mike DuHaime:

I think what it does and this is probably not unique to our campaign is puts a heavier burden on the amount of money that has to be raised.  And it used to be that any viable candidate would be able to raise enough money to compete in every state.  But, now every candidate has to make resource allocation decisions and look at the places where they may be able to perform best – where one can get delegates.

So, it changes the need to raise money which laters the schedule.  In order to do a significant amount of fundraisers it takes time away from some other places where you may do some more “retail” campaigning.

It affects our campaign and will affect every campaign as to the schedule.
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SurveyUSA Election Poll

Giuliani and McCain Have Twice Support of Nearest Rival in Washington State: In a Republican Primary for President of the United States in Washington State today, May 3, 2007, Rudolph Giuliani and John McCain are effectively tied, with others far back, according to a SurveyUSA poll of likely Republican Primary voters conducted exclusively for KING-TV Seattle. Giuliani gets 32% today, McCain 28%.

Undeclared candidate Fred Thompson, from the TV show Law and Order, gets approximately half as much support, at 17%. George Romney gets half again as much support as Thompson, at 9%.

The difference between Giuliani supporters and McCain supporters is clearly drawn: Giuliani leads among Republicans who say the USA is winning the War on Terror. McCain leads among those who say the Terrorists are winning the War on Terror. McCain leads among those who say the USA needs a military draft.

Giuliani leads among those who say the USA does not need a military draft. Giuliani leads among the small number of Republicans who support same-sex marriage; McCain and Giuliani tie among the large number of Repbulican primary voters who oppose same-sex marriage.

McCain leads among those who think global warming is real. Giuliani leads among those who think global warming is made-up. McCain leads, although barely, among pro-life Republicans. Giuliani leads among pro-choice Republicans.

The GOP Nuts:

The date of the Washington State GOP Primary is undecided today (as it is in a number of states).

The question will be whether the primary will even count. If the primary is outside the February 5th envelope, the race may be decided before Washingtonians go to the polls.

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