Barack ObamaHillary ClintonPresident 2008

Last Shopping Day of the Primary Season – The Predictions


Jim Geraghty over at National Review has the round-up of election predictions:

Captain Ed @ Hot Air:

  • Hillary by 8 in Indiana
  • Obama by 4 in North Carolina

Mickey Kaus @ Slate:

  • Hillary by 8 in Indiana
  • Obama by 3 or less in North Carolina

Flap’s Prediction:

  • Hillary by 7 in Indiana
  • Obama by 6 in North Carolina but wins less than 33% of the white vote

And, what does it all mean?

Hillary will claim that Obama cannot win the demographics that the Democrats need to win in the fall – namely white working class voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania, California and Texas.

Obama will escape with a win, his first since, when? February? But, he will be clearly on the defensive.

The controversy regarding Michigan and Florida delegates will intensify as the race carries onto to West Virginia and Kentucky where Hillary should do well and Oregon where Obama is the favorite.

  • Countdown to West Virginia: 7 days
  • Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 14 days

If the election breaks this way, it is on to Denver and a nasty summer for the Democrats.