Iran Nuclear Watch: The Two Red Lines; Update: Israel is Bluffing?
Iran’s overt nuclear installations
A senior defense official told ABC News there is an “increasing likelihood” that Israel will carry out such an attack, a move that likely would prompt Iranian retaliation against, not just Israel, but against the United States as well.
The official identified two “red lines” that could trigger an Israeli offensive. The first is tied to when Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility produces enough highly enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon. According to the latest U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments, that is likely to happen sometime in 2009, and could happen by the end of this year.
“The red line is not when they get to that point, but before they get to that point,” the official said. “We are in the window of vulnerability.”
The second red line is connected to when Iran acquires the SA-20 air defense system it is buying from Russia. The Israelis may want to strike before that system — which would make an attack much more difficult — is put in place.
Some Pentagon officials also worry that Israel may be determined to attack before a new U.S. president, who may be less supportive, is sworn in next January.
Well, no shit Sherlock.
President Bush, the United Nations and the European Union haven’t done anything to stop the Iranian Mullahs from acquiring nuclear weapons. The justifications for obtaining them are already floating around the blogs – “well. Israel has nukes, why shouldn’t Iran?”
So, Israel has a REAL concern that the mad men of Tehran could soon achieve a method for a second HOLOCAUST.
The United States and the rest of the world economies will be crippled while Israel and the United States neuter Iran. Americans will have to sacrifice. There will be a shortage of gasoline and oil based products.
But, not for long.
Update:
Is Israel’s threat to Iran a bluff?
Israel seems content to keep Iran and the rest of the world guessing uneasily about whether and when it might attack the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities.
It has done little to douse speculation stoked by a big Israeli air force exercise last month, an Israeli cabinet minister’s remark that military action was “inevitable” and a prediction by former U.S. official John Bolton that this might occur in the final weeks of President George W. Bush’s term.
Israel is NOT going to wait around until Iran possesses Breakout Capability for their nuclear weapons program.
Whenever the Breakout Capability is imminent or the two red lines are crossed Israel will act – alone if need be.
By this fall?
Possible…..
Previous:
Iran Nuclear Watch: One Year to Stop Iranian NUKE
Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Will Play Disrupt Gulf Oil Route Card
Iran Nuclear Watch: Ahmadinejad – The West Could NOT Break Us
Iran Nuclear Watch: The Red Line
Iran Nuclear Watch: Britain to Increase Iran Sanctions
Iran Nuclear Watch: Ahmadinejad Taunts Bush
9 Comments
nick
tell me when iran has attacked a neighbouring country or really posed a threat to the west. wasn’t it iraq who invaded iran with the USA helping saddam hussen. basically the USA is still dirty on iran for overthrowing the brutal dictator ‘the shah’, who was dipised by the iranian people.USA had a sweet deal with the shah when it game to oil and big business ,and that deal was basically robbing the iranian people..now the iranian people are better off than when the shah was ruler. iran once recently had a democracy[1950s] but USAand england organised a coup[operation ajax] which killed that democracy and install the shah.
now some war mongers are trying to make a case to attack iran cause it MAY soon have nukes. but iran SUSPENDED its nuke progam in 2003. this is all about USA EMPIRE and world domination.
Flap
Iran has aided Iraqi insurgents kill American soldiers.
Sassinfras you are an idiot if you think Iran has stopped its nuclear weapons program. No one in the world buys that line.
By the way start using your own name or I will ban you.
sassinfras
didn’t the US aid saddam to kill iranian soldiers in the 80’s., when saddam was a US friend. saddam used chemical weapons against iran with the US help. USA didn’t say a word about the use of chemical weapons then.the USA shot down a iranian civillian 747 killing hundreds. the only aggression i’ve seen is the USA and its allies. tell me what aggression has iran done.iran basically talks tough for political reasons but the reality is very different. the iranians know what will happen if they attack any other country, esp israel.
i have not seen difinitive proof that iran is seeking to build a nuke,just alot of ‘suspect’ and
‘may’s .but with all the hype i wouldn’t blame iran if it was to build a nuke to deter the aggression against it.
its the same arrogance that landed the USA in a illegal war in iraq i see happening now to iran. its the same foreign policy which caused 9/11 and in turn killed hundreds of thousands in the middle east.. and i bet you israel has alot to do with it.
i have respect for the soldiers lives and wouldn’t send them to war on a ‘maybe’ or ‘suspect.’ what did that war criminal dick cheny say’ if there is a 1% chance its true we must react as if its 100%’. you conservatives think ‘might is right’.
and by the way my name is really nick but i’ll use my user name ,o.k. sorry for confusion
Flap
Alot of unfounded allegations. Got any proof? Any links for evidence?
sassinfras
the evidence is there and you know it. the name of the US warship that shot down the airbus killing 290 civillians was the ‘vincennes’ and the US captain who ordered it was Cpt Will Rogers. and the sick thing about it the crew of the ‘vincennes’were decorated for shooting down this aeroplane. the iraqis had used gas to recapture Fao on 19 april 1988 to the virtual indifference of the world.on the 17th and 18th of march the iraqis had gassed the kurdish town of Halabaja killing over 5000 civillians -and in Washington the CIA[ which was still supporting saddam ] sent out a deceitful briefing note to US embassies in the middle east ,stating that the gas may have been drop by the iranians. this evidence was used by the bush administration as part justification for invading iraq,except the part of the CIA.
the USA supported saddam in his war with iran, thats indisputable ,but only complained about saddams war crimes until it needed justification to attack saddam when he turned on USA and invaded kuwait. so long as saddam hussien was americas bad guy it was o.k to use gas,but when saddam was not a friend anymore america was suddenly horrified. when the USA sent its navy to protect the shipping in the gulf they protected iraqi shipping but not the iranian shipping.
You still haven’t answered my question. show me any evidence of iranian aggression against its neighbours or for that matter any country. its all propoganda to make iran the mad dog of the world to justify attack and ultimately reshape the middle east to israels design using americain firepower. read a paper called a ‘clean break’.
Flap
As I thought. You cannot provide any evidence – just bloviations.
Try the search feature in the right sidebar and enter Iran. There are many posts that go back years. And, they have links with references.
sassinfras
if i knew how to create the links i would, i’m computer illiterate. but if you type in ‘operation ajax’ , ‘USS vincennes’,’a clean break'[which is a must], and at’ http://www.theworld.org/?q=node/5555‘ which has what i’m talking about.
the links you provided just proves my point there is not real evidence just speculation with the words ‘could’,’may’,’suspects’ and my favorite ‘viable’.
there is a pattern developing- i remember years ago it was arafrat and Fata which was causing the troubles, then lybia and gaddaffi who were the threat to world peace and must be bomded,then to the mad mullas of iran, then syria was the threat, then when arafat signed peace with israel he was a stateman but morfed back into a terrorist when israel wouldn’t hold up their end of the bargain, saddam was the villian when he attacked kuwait after being a US friend ,and now we are back to the mullas. the only thing the above have in common is they are considered enemies of israel. now israel is using the US war machine to do its dirty work and iran is next. if you read the ‘clean break paper’ written in 1996 you can see the thinking which has created the current mess in the middle east.
sorry i couldn’t provide the links but if you type in any of the above you will see.
t.s eliot was said -‘ justice itself tends to be corrupted by political passion,and that meddling in other peoples affairs which was formerly conducted by the most discreet intrigue is now openly advocated under the name of intervention. nations which once shrank from condemning the most flagitous violations of human rights in germany,are now exhorted to interfere in other countries governments-and always in the name of peace and concord. respect for the culture,the pattern of life,of other people….is respect for history;and by history we set no great score.’.
Flap
The post you reference is from February 2003 and before the Iraq War, no?
So, I am doing your research for you after you have already drawn conclusions. Isn’t that ass backwards?
sassinfras
all your links and past post is the basic propoganda line coming from israel. there is no SOLID evidence. you do not bomb a country beause of ‘suspect,may or probable’ reasons. it just like WMD fiasco.
iran has alot to be dirty at USA for. since the overthrow of the shah the USA has been meddling in iranian affairs, supporting saddam into a decade long war with iran,stuff i already mention but you say is untrue but really is.
what is happening now is the manipulation of the facts for war. why are you supporting this silliness. diplomacy without conditions is the only way to get results. the USA war manufactures are always looking for a new enemy real or imagined to justify the budgets they recieve . just look at how much the USA spends on war and killing to how much they spend on saving lifes and medical research-masisvely huge difference.you guys i think are really controlled by the industrial war machine and you make enemies from your foreign policies.
we are just going nowhere on this subject so i’ll agree to disagree with your hype.