Tony Strickland Vs Hannah-Beth Jackson – A Fight for the Middle?

The Los Angeles Times has a piece up this morning about the Tony Strickland – Hannah-Beth Jackson race. The premise is that both are attempting to attrack moderate voters to win California’s 19th State Senate District.

But as they face off for the 19th state Senate District seat covering much of Ventura and Santa Barbara counties and Santa Clarita in Los Angeles County, both candidates are moving to the center in a bid to win over the crucial block of moderate voters who will probably decide the election.

With no incumbent and voter registration split nearly equally between Republicans and Democrats, big money and attention is pouring into the race. Republicans don’t want to lose the seat held by termed-out Republican Sen. Tom McClintock, and Democrats badly want a win to move the party closer to a two-thirds supermajority needed to pass budget and tax measures, analysts say.

“It’s the hottest race on the Senate side,” said Allan Hoffenblum, editor of the nonpartisan California Target Book. “It’s a centrist district that leans Republican, but it’s anything but a safe seat.”

The 19th district has changed over the past four years with fewer GOP registered voters but the Republicans continue to hold a slight registration edge. This spells an uphill climb for Jackson who is a left-wing partisan from renowned liberal and Democrat dominated Santa Barbara.

Tony Strickland MUST turn out all of his GOP base and a few other voters and he wins. In the closing days of the Presidential race, should McCain precipitously decline in the polls, he must work his GOTV to make sure Republicans vote. However, Proposition 8, the Gay Marriage proposition, will likely motivate many Evangelical, conservative Catholic and Mormon voters to the voting booth. This will help Strickland.

Now, it is all about turnout and how the campaigns work the phones, walk the precincts and get out the vote, including absentee ballots. Whoever has the better political organization wins.

Stay tuned……

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