California Proposition 8 – Protect Traditional Marriage Final Poll – Race Too Close To Call
The final Survey USA poll conducted over the past few days (October 29 – 31, 2008) has the measure in a dead-heat – “could go either way.”
Here are the polling results:
Flap remembers last Thursday’s blogger conference call.
So, the race is DEAD EVEN on both ways of counting which is a good position the Yes campaign feels to be in.
Frank Schubert:â€If we are tied on Monday night then Yes on 8 will win by 4-8 points.â€
Why?
For a couple of reasons:
- The history of polling on this issue suggests there is a percentage of people who do not accurately report they support traditional marriage. They do not want to say something that may be perceived as not politically correct. Historically, that polling percentage has averaged about 7 % if you look at all of the states where marriage has been on the ballot. “I don’t think it will be 7 per cent this time, more like 4 or 5 per cent bump that we will get…â€
- Another reason why if Yes is tied or behind by a couple of points on Monday night is the ground operation that the Yes on 8 campaign has. We have a truly Presidential GOTV operation (Get Out The Vote). There are over 100,000 people who have committed to walk door to door to distribute targeted literature and doorknob hangers throughout the weekend and Monday and on Monday we will have as many as 5 people per precinct working to get the vote out – both going door to door or phoning voters who either have not voted or will be voting. This is a GOTV effort that has never been done in California before for a proposition.
Flap believes the ground operation (GOTV) for the Yes on 8 campaign is superior to any recent California campaign. For this reason alone, Flap sees a win for Yes on 8.
But, stay tuned. This race may go down to the counting of ballots well into Wednesday or even Thursday.
Yes, the race will be THAT close.
The door hanger on Flap’s door, Saturday morning:
Technorati Tags: Gay Marriage
18 Comments
Kim
Awesome. People thinking they should be able to make life decisions for others, based on their elitists ideals.
This separation of church and state thing is so great.
Kims last blog post..It’s a big week…
BeetleBabee
The idea that our public school administrators are unbiased observers in this election or in our children’s moral education is a farce.
TODAY in our town, a prop 8 sign that was too close to school property was destroyed by two Conejo Valley Unified administrators. It was caught on camera.
http://beetlebabee.wordpress.com/2008/11/03/school-board-vandalism
There’s no way they can say that they are unbiased in this debate. The ferocity and cruelty shows through. This is who runs our schools. This is the face of tolerance. As much as I would like to believe that this is a rarity, 200,000 stolen, defaced, destroyed and vandalized signs proves otherwise.
BeetleBabees last blog post..Speechless–School Board Vandalism
E-HOG
It’s going to be a long night.
E-HOG
It’s going to be a long day.
Sam
It’s unbelievable that even a progressive state like California would act like we were still in the dark ages. I just cannot believe that the people of California, depite the campaign of lies that the Yes camp has spent millions on, would ever use the California Constitution to TAKE AWAY the legal rights of others. If this passes, what’s next? Will people with a whole lot of money be able to take away the rights of Christians to vote? That could happen. Isn’t a shame that people are voting on this based on emotion and their “sacred relationships” instead of the reality of the institution of marriage… that no matter how individuals may choose to make it a religious ceremony or make it spiritual (which is terrific), it is still a CIVIL RIGHT. What you make of your relationship (with or without the civil right of “marriage”) is between you and your partner and nobody can take that away! What this horrible proposition is trying to do is to take away civil and legal rights and that is the most non-Christian decision a Christian can make! Please, vote NO on 8!
Pierce
Sam unfortunately misses the point. First off, prop 8 doesn’t take away the right of those practicing a homosexual lifestyle to marry. All it does it say that the state will only recognize a “marriage” between 1 man and 1 woman. They can still marry heterosexually or they can participate in a domestic partnership which gives them every right I’ve ever heard a proponent of homosexual marriage enumerate. (ie hospital visitation, estate planning etc. etc.)
Now prop 8 is also needed in regard to the fact that the state already voted on this. Over 4.5 million people already voted to define marriage in this way and all it took was 4 activist judges to completely erase that. I don’t care what the issue is that isn’t how our government was suppposed to work. (…of the people, by the people and for the people… ring any bells????)
Now also this issue isn’t just about who can marry who, the argument concerning our schools is completely valid. If it doesn’t effect our schools why has the CTA donated 1.3 million dollars for the No on 8 campaign??? Also, the commercials that have been shown are fact. Those are real situations that have taken place. Also when they cite O’connell (might be O’donnell or something similar, can’t remember off hand) saying that marriage doesn’t have to be taught in the classroom that goes against his own website. (The website says that in 96% of classes marriage is a required topic of discussion)
The reality is that this is only the beginning. There just isn’t the time to comprehensively cover this topic here.
Feel free to email me if you have questions or comments : Pierce1998@yahoo.com
Roger Krueger
I’m sorry, this is just dumb.
You really think they won’t find a way to teach about civil unions in schools? C’mon, “Heather has Two Mommies” was almost 20 years ago.
And that’s all “yes” really has. I mean, I understand about being morally opposed to homosexuality–even if I don’t agree–but this does nothing, absolutely nothing but change the name applied to the arrangement. It’s just millions of dollars of mean-spirited idiocy on both sides over a word that has no practical effect.
All this while our economy goes down in flames and our government veers towards the worst bout of socialism since LBJ’s “Great Society” that took 30 years to repair. Prop 8 is such an incredibly effective distraction from the stuff that really matters I’d only have to be a little more paranoid to see it as a liberal plot.
DANYELLE ROBINSON
NNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNNNNNN PPPPPPPPRRRRRRRRRRROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOPPPPPP 8
NO ON PROP 8
Doreen
God’s word prevails and the lie that this was a discrimination or hate thing was just too stupid to comment on and was such a lie. Praying that this will forever leave our ballot, the people have spoken, we wish to protect the holiness, the beauty and the sanctification of marriage between a man and a woman! PERIOD!!!!!!!!! END OF STORY!!!!!
Mary
DITTO!!!! Doreen. OK couples—let’s work on staying married now. FOR OUR CHILDREN’S SAKE. Give them their family.
Kim
Doreen & Mary,
It’s incredible that you think this should be up to the people. It is discrimination. The separation of church and state is so false.
Last night you voted to take my marriage away. I was legally allowed to wed, and did so this summer, and YOU took it away from me. My wife and I, who’ve been together for 8 years (you don’t think that represents the beauty and sanctity of marriage?), woke up this morning unsure about the future of our legal commitment.
I promise you that I am not going to let this “leave your ballot forever.”
Kims last blog post..Stop reading this and get your ass to the booths…
Nikki
Doreen and Mary are VERY mistaken if they think this is going to leave the ballot. You sound like the “old South” who thought that blacks shouldn’t have a right to anything back in the day! SHAME ON YOU! Kids need to learn about he world around them. And homosexuality is here, loud and proud in CA, so you better buy your kiddies some books! Or the awfulness of what happened to that poor boy in Oxnard (got his head blown off in class by a classmate because he was “different”) will not be the last. Why must history repeat itself? First it was racial with African Americans and now this. I hope it doesn’t have to get to the point of violence that their fight did. I’m not church-goer, but aren’t you taught to “Love all” YOU HIPOCRITES!!!
Oh and by the way, Pierce is an idiot for saying that homosexual people “can still marry heterosexually…” WTF!! Is that what you tell your boyfriend “I just married her cause I wanted to get married, but I really love you!” Ha ha…
Pierce
I feel truly sorry for you nikki. It’s called logic and solid cogent thinking I suggest you try it sometime.
Mike
The Bible is the Word of God. It says that marriage is between man and woman. Christians, like myself, have nothing against people that are homosexual…BUT… we do believe that marraige is GODS design. The only thing i worry about, as a follower of Jesus… who by the way is proven beyond any doubt to have been the real LIVING GOD, is that if they do not accept Jesus’ work on the cross, that those homosexuals can be sure of 2 things like everyone else: DEATH and JUDGEMENT. I pray that before their time here is over, that they receive the FREE GIFT of eternal life with our Father in Heaven though the belief in Christ and His resurrection.
In love, Mike
Jesse
I believe there is even more at stake than just kids education and the sacred name of marriage here. Just go online and look up some of the stitistics on gay relationships. It’s sad what this world will accept even with such effects.
some of my favorites,
-One study reports that the average homosexual has between 20 and 106 partners per year (why then would they want to get married?)
-Of homosexuals questioned in one study reports that 43% admit to 500 or more partners in a lifetime, 28% admit to 1000 or more in a lifetime, and of these people, 79% say that half of those partners are total strangers, and 70% of those sexual contacts are one night stands
– 41% of homosexuals say they have had sex with strangers in public restrooms, 60% say they have had sex with strangers in bathhouses, and 64% of these encounters have involved the use of illegal drugs
– Homosexuals commit more than 33% of all reported child molestations in the United States, which, assuming homosexuals make up 2% of the population, means that 1 in 20 homosexuals is a child molestor, while 1 in 490 heterosexuals is a child molestor
– Homosexuals live unhealthy lifestyles, and have historically accounted for the bulk of syphilis, gonorrhea, Hepatitis B, the “gay bowel syndrome” (which attacks the intestinal tract), tuberculosis and cytomegalovirus
-50% of suicides can be attributed to homosexuals
-78% of homosexuals are affected by STDs
-The median age of death of homosexuals is 42 (only 9% live past age 65). This drops to 39 if the cause of death is AIDS. The median age of death of a married heterosexual man is 75
-The median age of death of lesbians is 45 (only 24% live past age 65). The median age of death of a married heterosexual woman is 79
-Homosexuals were responsible for spreading AIDS in the United States, and then raised up violent groups like Act Up and Ground Zero to complain about it. Even today, homosexuals account for well over 50% of the AIDS cases in the United States, which is quite a large number considering that they account for only 1-2% of the population
I am aware that some of thease stitistics are out dated but they have probably just gotten worse.
Do we really want to legalize and suport this kind of lifestyle?
Is this really the way we want to live?
We can still love homosexuals without condoning the lifestyle. Now you can’t help poeple that don’t want to be helped but we should still try if we really care for them.
I got these off this web site http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1502263/posts
Kim
Jesse,
I hope that even the Yes on Prop 8 supporters cringe when they read your comment.
This is exactly why civil rights issues shouldn’t even be voted on, but should be left up to educated, objective judges who have every Californian/American in mind. You are basing your outlook on homosexuals on a webpage listing ridiculous stats (obviously put together with bias and malicious intentions in mind) that actually include popular magazine articles in its sources.
This is why we need judges and civil rights should not be left up to the voters – if people can read information such as this list of misinformation and really take it seriously.
Why do you think that the counties with a larger “openly” gay population supported NO on prop 8? Yes, there’s obviously more gay voters who voted NO, but the straight people who are around gay individuals also had to have voted NO for it to get the numbers in those areas. And yet, the areas of smaller population, in the middle of the state, where people are not exposed to different individuals than themselves, voted Yes. Most likely it’s because of ignorant and sheltered ideals such as yours listed above.
I am a homosexual and have never slept around. In fact, I waited until I was married before I had sex. I am married and have been faithfully together with her for 8 years. I don’t have aids. I have never been inappropriate with a child. I don’t have an STD. I’ve never had sex in a public place. Ooh, maybe you’ll think my same-sex marriage is okay?
Kims last blog post..Stop reading this and get your ass to the booths…
Roger Krueger
Even if Jesse’s stats were right (which they absolutely aren’t) SO WHAT? What do they have to do with this measure? NOTHING on 8 addresses a single one of these issues. Banning gay marriage won’t stop bathroom sex, won’t stop STDS, won’t stop suicides.
8 isn’t going to do ANYTHING except send a message to gays that we still despise them. Yeah, that’s really the kind of action Christ was promoting. If you really want to bring these people to Jesus, making them think of Christians as the enemey is a seriously rotten way to start.
Jesse
Yes Roger I know banning them the right for marriage is not gonna stop the stitistics. If anything it may even help by keeping them to one partner like Kim but that is rare. You still missed my point altogether. It’s just an unheathy lifestyle.
We as Christians don’t despise them But I can see why they may think that. And know matter what we do to stop them from doing the things they do they will always think that. You have problably heard Christians say we don’t hate the person but we hate the sin. If you have a Bible Read 1 Corinthians 6:8-10 Or you can look it up on Bible Gateway.com. For This reason I can not Alow them this right for I would be accepting there sin as right and I would be condeming them to hell. Besides that passing this prop would mean we as Christians would loose the right not to marry homosexuals. It would be considered hateful even though it is wrong for our belief.
Teaching that homosexuality is wrong to my kids would also be considered hate speach. It has already happened in states that have legalized gay marriage.
Besides like Pierce said above homosexuals still have the right to a domestic partnership and get all the same benifits of marriage. Christians and parents had more to loose than homosexuals did.