New Gay Marriage Study Challenges Notion that African-Americans Overwhelmingly Help Pass California Proposition 8

A new study tries to debunk the notion that California African-American voters spurred to the polls by the election of the first African-American President, Barack Obama overwhelmingly supported California Proposition 8 that restored the traditional definition of marriage (one man and one woman).

A new study of voting patterns on Proposition 8, the November ballot measure that would outlaw same-sex marriage, concludes that African American support, reported by exit pollsters at 70 percent, was at least 10 percentage points lower.

The high reported support levels among black and Latino voters for the measure, which won voter approval but is now being challenged in court, led to post-election controversy and conclusions that non-white voters provided the margin of victory for Proposition 8.

The new study, commissioned by the San Francisco-based Evelyn and Walter Hass Jr. Fund and released by a consortium of gay rights groups, was conducted by two New York college researchers. It concludes that party affiliation, political ideology, frequency of attending church and age “were the driving forces behind the measure’s passage” rather than ethnicity.

When voting results were adjusted for those factors, the researchers concluded, “support for Proposition 8 among African Americanss and Latinos was not significantly different than other groups.” They put overall black support for Proposition 8 at “no more than 59 percent” rather than the 70 percent found in exist polls of voters.

“These figures point the way to winning marriage equality for same-sex couples sooner rather than later,” said Jaime Grant, Ph.D., director of the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force Policy Institute. “Convincing the Republican Party that continued gay bashing will cripple its future is one; another is accelerating the already strong surge in support among young voters.”

An interesting study that really compares apples to oranges in a number of their analyses but the reader can read it here (PDF).

The November California Proposition 8 was a “PERFECT STORM” for the passage of gay marriage in California. A down GOP year, an accelerated Democrat registration drive plus turn-out for Obama, optimized ballot language by a sympathetic California Attorney General and a Presidental election year turn-out of voters should have produced a victory for gay marriage proponents. But, it didn’t.

Why?

There is No doubt the No on Proposition 8 Campaign was poorly run but the fact is that California voters simply do NOT support gay marriage and the considerable political baggage that accompanies its legalization. And, an almost 60 per cent African-American support for a gay marriage ban is nothing to overlook. But, does it really matter?

The homosexual lobby will try again (when the California Supreme Court upholds Proposition 8 as constitutional) but will be less likely to obtain even 48 per cent they received last November. Younger voters will return to their habit of ignoring elections and GOP voters will return to the fold of turning out to vote disproprtionately in non-Presidental election years. Gay Marriage = FAIL.

There has not been one election in ANY state where gay marriage has passed the muster of voters. It won’t be happening anytime soon in California either – despite what homosexual political scientists desire.