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links for 2009-02-10

  • A panel of three federal judges, ruling that overcrowding in state prisons has deprived inmates of their right to adequate healthcare, today indicated they would order the state to reduce the population in those lockups by as many as 58,000 people.

    The judges issued the tentative ruling after a trial in two long-running cases brought by inmates to protest the state of medical and mental healthcare in the prisons.
    ++++++
    And how many will find work with 11 % unemployment?

  • I agree with much of Peter Beinart's argument in this column, but he glides over a fairly significant point

    In policy terms, to be sure, Republican critiques of the stimulus are important: We’re engaged in an extraordinary experiment in whether Keynesian economics works, and whether it works more effectively through spending or tax cuts. But politically, the critiques are irrelevant. The Obama stimulus will pass. For a while, the economy will almost certainly remain bad. If by 2011 and 2012, it starts to markedly recover—as the American economy did in 1983 and 1984—Obama will get the credit, no matter how many Republicans voted with him. Blue states and districts will grow bluer, and many of the Republicans who represent them will lose, or else retire before they can. (See Gregg, Judd). Republicans in safe conservative states and districts will keep their jobs, and watch Obama’s triumph in brooding insignificance.

  • Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is accusing the White House and Democratic Congressional leaders of staggering their high-priority spending plans in what he said was a deliberate attempt to mislead the public about the total amount of federal spending that will take place in the weeks to come.

    “The administration and Congress are trying to slow-walk the overall effect of the spending,” McConnell told reporters in a Monday afternoon news conference.

    As evidence, the Republican pointed to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s one-day delay in announcing his financial rescue plan and the decision to push nine outstanding appropriations spending bills to later this month. Those federally-funded programs are to come in addition to the $800 billion economic stimulus package expected to be signed into law as early as the end of this week.

    “It’s stunning, staggering amounts we’re talking about here,” McConnell said, arguing that Democrats needed to announce up front how much total

  • This little tidbit in the New York Times, in a story about ObamaWeek Newsweek reinventing itself, seems easy to overlook:

    Thirteen months ago, Newsweek lowered its rate base, the circulation promised to advertisers, to 2.6 million from 3.1 million, and Mr. Ascheim said that would drop to 1.9 million in July, and to 1.5 million next January.

    Next January is eleven months from now. 13 + 11 = 24 months; so basically, in the span of two years, Newsweek's promised circulation has shrunk by more than half!? 52 percent!?

    Say, fellows, is there any chance that the perception that you're "ObamaWeek" is driving away a portion of your former subscribers?

  • While the President puts on a full court press, the debate over the more than $800 billion bill, which includes increased government spending and tax cuts, appears to have split the public. A slight majority, 54 percent, favor the bill, with 45 percent opposed.

    And there's a partisan divide. Three out of four Democrats support the bill, but that number drops to 51 percent for self-identified independents, and just 32 percent for Republicans. Nearly seven in ten Republicans questioned oppose the bill.

  • As Nate Silver observed, Rasmussen consistently shows less support for the stimulus plan than other pollsters. My bet is that question text and format explain most of the difference, although variation in sampling (Rasmussen screens for "likely voters" while Gallup and CBS samples all adults) and mode (Rasmussen uses an automated methodology while Gallup and CBS use live interviewers) may also be factors.
    Thanks to the reader who caught something I missed. Rasmussen also changed the wording of their stimulus question. In their first test in early January, the question identified only "Barack Obama" as the sponsor. Beginning with their 1/27-28 survey, that changed to "Barack Obama and the Congressional Democrats" (emphasis added). I have corrected the table above to reflect the changed wording
  • Many are calling for a 9/11-type commission to investigate the financial crisis. Any such investigation should not rule out government itself as a major culprit. My research shows that government actions and interventions — not any inherent failure or instability of the private economy — caused, prolonged and dramatically worsened the crisis.
  • In the 20th District of New York, vacated by the appointment of Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Republican nominee Jim Tedisco leads Democratic nominee Scott Murphy, 50 percent to 29 percent, according to Tedisco's pollster. That's not bad, but it's certainly not dispositive. Tedisco benefits from high name identification; he's the Assembly minority leader (and it's quite a small minority: Republicans have 41 seats and Democrats 109). Murphy is capable of self-financing, and in this one-media-market (Albany) district, that counts for a lot. On the other hand, it appears that Murphy has some tax problems.

    In Virginia, pollster Scott Rasmussen shows Republican Robert McDonnell ahead of each of the three Democrats competing for their party's nomination—42 percent to 5 percent against former Democratic National Chairman Terry McAuliffe, 39 percent to 30 percent against Delegate Creigh Deeds, 39 percent to 36 percent against former Delegate Brian Moran.

  • I am supporting the economic stimulus package for one simple reason: The country cannot afford not to take action.
    The unemployment figures announced Friday, the latest earnings reports and the continuing crisis in banking make it clear that failure to act will leave the United States facing a far deeper crisis in three or six months. By then the cost of action will be much greater — or it may be too late.

    Wave after wave of bad economic news has created its own psychology of fear and lowered expectations. As in the old Movietone News, the eyes and ears of the world are upon the United States. Failure to act would be devastating not just for Wall Street and Main Street but for much of the rest of the world, which is looking to our country for leadership in this crisis.
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    But, Senator a bad bill may be WORSE than waiting and recrafting a BETTER bill. Your arguments are very weak.

  • In December, I heard an Alaskan king crab company using a Sarah Palin impersonator in their radio ads—the slogan was, "Finally, a real winner from Alaska"—and now Jerry's Subs and Pizza is using a Sarah Palin impersonator as well in their ads on Washington-area stations. Her closing line is, "I can see America from my house."
    +++++++
    The jokes are dated but apparently popular.
    (tags: sarah_palin)
  • Michael S. Steele, the new chairman of the Republican National Committee, said yesterday that there was nothing improper in a payment of more than $37,000 to his sister's company for work on his 2006 Senate campaign and that he would work with the FBI "to clear up my good name."
  • General Motors plans to invest $1 billion in Brazil to avoid the kind of problems the U.S. automaker is facing in its home market, said the beleaguered car maker.

    According to the president of GM Brazil-Mercosur, Jaime Ardila, the funding will come from the package of financial aid that the manufacturer will receive from the U.S. government and will be used to "complete the renovation of the line of products up to 2012."

    "It wouldn't be logical to withdraw the investment from where we're growing, and our goal is to protect investments in emerging markets," he said in a statement published by the business daily Gazeta Mercantil.

  • President Obama last Thursday night stated his belief in the need for urgent action on the economic recovery bill working its way through Congress. “If we do not move swiftly … an economy that is already in crisis will be faced with catastrophe,” he declared. Obama repeated that sentiment in his nationwide radio address on Saturday.

    A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 44% of Americans agree with Obama and 41% do not.