Our new Louisiana poll has a lot of data points to show how unhappy voters in the state are with Barack Obama's handling of the oil spill but one perhaps sums it up better than anything else- a majority of voters there think George W. Bush did a better job with Katrina than Obama's done dealing with the spill.

50% of voters in the state, even including 31% of Democrats, give Bush higher marks on that question compared to 35% who pick Obama.

Overall only 32% of Louisianans approve of how Obama has handled the spill to 62% who disapprove. 34% of those polled say they approved of how Bush dealt with Katrina to 58% who disapproved.

Editor’s Note: About a month ago, we received a list of names of people connected to the UltimateBet super-user cheating scandal. Much of that information can now be found on 2+2 here.

Since then, we received substantial and substantive information that helped validate some of the data that appears in those documents, while disproving other data. We conducted a wide-range of interviews with well-informed sources connected to the investigation, high-level and connected industry figures, and high-stakes poker players that had varying degrees of knowledge (ranging from ”intimate” to “was directly cheated by Russ Hamilton”) about the scandal.
Eventually, a consistent story formed about who built the super-user cheating software, who else might have known about the cheating scam, and who exactly were the super-users.

Some of this information has, in some shape or form, been discussed through great investigative work by the likes of Nat Arem, Haley Hintze, and others
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Read it all

Tom Campbell still would have lost his Republican primary for U.S. Senate even if he didn't support gay marriage, according to a survey of GOP voters. But he probably wouldn’t have been trounced as badly as he was.

That’s the conclusion of a poll commissioned by the National Organization for Marriage, a group opposing same-sex marriage that ran an ad campaign targeting Campbell on the issue.

Even though most voters didn’t know Campbell’s position, there was a significant minority who did. The poll showed that the latter turned against Campbell in large numbers.

The post-election poll of 300 GOP primary voters found that those who voted for Campbell’s opponents were more aware of his gay-marriage stand. Of the voters who supported Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, R-Irvine, or former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, three in 10 said Campbell’s opposition to Proposition 8 was a factor in their decision.
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Why, of course it did.

I think we’ll know very soon if this CrossTarget poll of the California Senate race is an outlier, or whether Carly Fiorina has gotten enough of a bump from her primary win to make this a neck-and-neck race with Barbara Boxer.

Boxer 46.5%

Fiorina 47.0%

Undecided 6.5%

Rasmussen had Boxer by 5, but the incumbent’s lead has been pretty marginal in most recent polls: 6, 3, 9, 4, 7, 1.

And if Barbara Boxer really is in trouble… well, the Democrats had better run and hide in the rest of the country.
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The Dems can run but they cannot hide