Updated: Sarah Palin California Field Poll Watch: Not So Much and Obama Not So Much
+++++Update+++++
In my previous post, I mentioned the polarized California electorate with regards to Sarah Palin and President Obama. However, I subsequently found this graph which parses the data in another form.
But, I also discovered something mentioned in that piece which I missed. President Obama’s endorsement doesn’t mean so much for candidates either. From the California Field Poll of September 29, 2010: (PDF)
Most Californians (55%) continue to believe that the country is seriously off on the wrong track, while one in three (34%) feel that the U.S. is headed in the right direction.
If the President were to endorse a candidate running for political office in this state, 44% say that this would make them more inclined while 40% say this would make them less inclined to support the office seeker.
These are the findings from the latest Field Poll assessing California voter opinions about President Obama and the direction the U.S. is heading. The survey was conducted by telephone in English and Spanish September 14 – 21 among 859 registered voters statewide.
Two years after she shook up the presidential race, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin remains a polarizing figure in California.
A new Field Poll shows 58 percent of Golden State voters have unfavorable views of her and would be less inclined to vote for a candidate she endorses.
While that may be an understandable view toward a Republican in a state as Democratic as California, Palin’s real trouble is among nonpartisans who can decide close elections, said poll director Mark DiCamillo. Nearly 70 percent of voters who decline to state a party preference or belong to a third party hold dim views of Palin. Two-thirds of them would be less inclined to vote for a candidate she backs.
California has become a very blue Democratic Party controlled state. This is as much demographic reality as it is political ideology. The California Republican Party has been shrinking as the number of independent voters have increased. The Democrats maintain a lock on the ethnic groups that march and vote in lockstep.
Should President Obama continue to be in trouble in the polls in other states, it is likely that he would still be able to win California and its massive number of Electoral College votes. In the meantime, Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney would only be able to use California as a fund raising opportunity to support media campaign in smaller swing states like Nevada, Ohio and Florida.
A Presidential GOP primary victory for Sarah Palin is very probable, even without California delegates since the likely 2012 Republican nominee will be decided before California holds its Presidential Primary election.
Do I think that Sarah Plain will run for President in 2012?
It depends upon a number of factors, most importantly the economy and Obama’s standing in the polls. Her GOP primary opponents are weak or little known nationally whereas she is well known and popular in early Republican Party nomination states, like Iowa, South Carolina and Florida.
She can run, win the nomination, lose to President Obama and be the presumptive GOP nominee in 2016 when the Presidency is open. So, why not run?
Keeping this in mind, the RNC and Sarah are continuing her California visability this election cycle and Sarah Palin will be coming to the OC on the 16th of October.
