CA-Sen Poll Watch: A Dead Heat Between Carly Fiorina and Barbara Boxer

California U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer

As I said last night, there will be a plethora of polls in the next 12 days prior to the November 2nd election and the results may well be all over the place. Look at this piece from Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza.

For months, Senate Republicans have insisted that Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) can be beaten. Now, they have a poll that shows the race as a dead heat.

Boxer and former Hewlett Packard executive Carly Fiorina (R) are knotted at 44 percent in a Tarrance Group poll conducted for the National Republican Senatorial Committee by Dave Sackett between Oct. 17 and 19.

Among independents and those voters who decline to state a party preference — a major target for both candidates — Fiorina leads 47 percent to 34 percent. “[Fiorina] needs to improve upon this and get her ballot strength among ticket-splitters up into the mid 50’s,” writes Sackett in the polling memo, a copy of which was obtained by the Fix.

The NRSC poll is slightly more optimistic for Fiorina than a Public Policy Institute of California survey released Wednesday that shows Boxer leading 43 percent to 38 percent. The PPIC survey also shows the race for independents tighter; Fiorina takes 37 percent, Boxer takes 36 percent and 18 percent are undecided.

The latest NRSC/Tarrance poll is here and I will embed it below.

CA Polling Memo

View more documents from nrsc.

In the various polling models, the pollsters are trying to predict likely voters in a very large state as California. This is not an easy task, especially since there is liable to be a disproportionate turnout from various areas of the state where there is high unemployment. Boxer will need to turnout traditional Democrat communities in Southern California in order to offset other areas of the state, like the Cental Valley which will vote overwhelmingly GOP.

How this turnout plays out and how well Carly Fiorna’s campaign turns out her base will determine the race – ON ELECTION DAY.

For your viewing pleasure are the latest Real Clear Politics Poll Averages.

One Comment

Francis

October 21, 2010 at 2:55 pm

OUT WITH INCUMBENTS IN NOVEMBER

The Liberal Democrats agenda in the first Senate session is sure to be the passage of AMNESTY, containing within the text AgJobs (for Farm guest workers) and the Dream Act. Self- Confessed Senator Harry Reid is determined to confront the 15 million unemployed Americans with this menacing referendum. What Reid and the Democrats haven’t revealed or the Liberal oriented press, the cost of processing this illegal Immigration law anticipated to be 2.6 Trillion dollars. This projection came from the non-profit group called the Heritage Foundation. This incredulous sum of money will be added to the US treasury shortfall of around 13 Trillion dollars and climbing. We are sitting on a financial powder keg and Incumbents Sen. Reid (NV); Boxer (CA); Feingold (WI); Bennett (CO); Inouye (HI)Lincoln (AR)); Mikulski (MD); Gillibrand (NY); Schumer (NY) Wyden (OR) Leahy (VT); Murray (WA) and Majority Speaker Pelosi.

Judging from their voting records on the website–ALL THE ISSUES, other than Gillibrand, who no voting record on Illegal Immigration. The rest of the sitting Senators have voted for funding Sanctuary Cities, Public welfare benefits and allowing illegal aliens to participate in our Social Security. But this is by far not the limit to these treacherous moves by Democrat-Senate, as they all agree on forcing through a Path to Citizenship. Nobody should be rewarded for breaking our laws. Every new candidate for office better beware of the fact, that THE TEA PARTY will be observant of their voting on all issues, including a demand for transparency as nobody is immune from being unseated. The Tea Party will not be corrupted by the special interest lobbyists, the powerful and elites in either party. They will not owe favors to trade unions, or any other business entity, as the Tea Party is the essence of all Americans.

That goes for new Politicians, Governors, Mayors, Police Chiefs and other elected officials in office. .Gubernatorial hopeful Jerry Brown is pro-Amnesty, so is Gavin Newsom, and have all catered to illegal immigrants by granting them access to welfare and all social services. This is a financial effrontery to all citizens and legal residents and should not be tolerated. The Federal government has been paying an estimated $113 billion dollars in benefits annually and it is still rising. There is another $60 Billion that leaves America in remittances in illegal workers wages and is not taxed. These amounts do not cover the State, county and municipal supplementary cash payments.

As American citizens we need to keep a close eye on all polling stations, and a keen inspection of absentee ballots. California and Nevada especially as these states are well acquainted with illegal voting in prior years and have massive populations of foreigners, who will violate the law. GOOGLE–Voter Fraud, Illegal Immigration, add any additional words and decide your vote. Not the Liberal lies. Me–I am fed up with being “politically correct,”for the extremist fringe groups of Liberal usurpers have tried to suppress our Free Speech. The majority of our politicians have become arrogant, disrespectful to the taxpayer and believe themselves untouchable.

Francis

October 21, 2010 at 2:55 pm

OUT WITH INCUMBENTS IN NOVEMBER

The Liberal Democrats agenda in the first Senate session is sure to be the passage of AMNESTY, containing within the text AgJobs (for Farm guest workers) and the Dream Act. Self- Confessed Senator Harry Reid is determined to confront the 15 million unemployed Americans with this menacing referendum. What Reid and the Democrats haven’t revealed or the Liberal oriented press, the cost of processing this illegal Immigration law anticipated to be 2.6 Trillion dollars. This projection came from the non-profit group called the Heritage Foundation. This incredulous sum of money will be added to the US treasury shortfall of around 13 Trillion dollars and climbing. We are sitting on a financial powder keg and Incumbents Sen. Reid (NV); Boxer (CA); Feingold (WI); Bennett (CO); Inouye (HI)Lincoln (AR)); Mikulski (MD); Gillibrand (NY); Schumer (NY) Wyden (OR) Leahy (VT); Murray (WA) and Majority Speaker Pelosi.

Judging from their voting records on the website–ALL THE ISSUES, other than Gillibrand, who no voting record on Illegal Immigration. The rest of the sitting Senators have voted for funding Sanctuary Cities, Public welfare benefits and allowing illegal aliens to participate in our Social Security. But this is by far not the limit to these treacherous moves by Democrat-Senate, as they all agree on forcing through a Path to Citizenship. Nobody should be rewarded for breaking our laws. Every new candidate for office better beware of the fact, that THE TEA PARTY will be observant of their voting on all issues, including a demand for transparency as nobody is immune from being unseated. The Tea Party will not be corrupted by the special interest lobbyists, the powerful and elites in either party. They will not owe favors to trade unions, or any other business entity, as the Tea Party is the essence of all Americans.

That goes for new Politicians, Governors, Mayors, Police Chiefs and other elected officials in office. .Gubernatorial hopeful Jerry Brown is pro-Amnesty, so is Gavin Newsom, and have all catered to illegal immigrants by granting them access to welfare and all social services. This is a financial effrontery to all citizens and legal residents and should not be tolerated. The Federal government has been paying an estimated $113 billion dollars in benefits annually and it is still rising. There is another $60 Billion that leaves America in remittances in illegal workers wages and is not taxed. These amounts do not cover the State, county and municipal supplementary cash payments.

As American citizens we need to keep a close eye on all polling stations, and a keen inspection of absentee ballots. California and Nevada especially as these states are well acquainted with illegal voting in prior years and have massive populations of foreigners, who will violate the law. GOOGLE–Voter Fraud, Illegal Immigration, add any additional words and decide your vote. Not the Liberal lies. Me–I am fed up with being “politically correct,”for the extremist fringe groups of Liberal usurpers have tried to suppress our Free Speech. The majority of our politicians have become arrogant, disrespectful to the taxpayer and believe themselves untouchable.