links for 2010-10-28

The time has finally come in this two-year election cycle to make the final calls. Thanks to everyone who has helped us by providing background info, tips, private polls, observations, and constructive criticism. We operate on the proverbial shoestring and we’re outside the Beltway (a plus and a minus), so we can always use the assistance.
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Our tradition is that we make a prediction in every contest. We’ve been studying these states, districts, and candidates for many years, and we feel entitled! We’re proud of our record over the years, but inevitably we will be wrong with some calls. Apologies for those in advance.

Students sometimes ask how I ever got into this game. I first published a state-by-state set of predictions in 1978. To my surprise, the exercise turned out well. In 1980 I won a DC-based election pool, and with that cash incentive, I was hooked. (No, I haven’t bet on elections in decades, and professional prognosticators shouldn’t.)

As of last night, in two separate tracking polls conducted over the last 72 hours, the race is now tied in one poll and Meg leads by +1 in the other. Among early voters who say they have already cast their ballots, Meg Whitman is leading by 3 points.

Field is a good poll. But it was taken from 10/14 to 10/25 and missed this movement. New TV ads, mail, and our very strong field operation (80 offices, 37,000+ volunteers, large direct mail program, large AB program) are all working in our favor.

GOP intensity, seen in early vote returns, is very high.

Meg is on road doing multiple events per day. Brown is largely absent from campaign trail. Rumored to be re-appearing this weekend. Some talk of a magic carpet being involved…

This is a tight race and while the public polls are down, most were taken a week or more ago. CA trend looking more and more like rest of US, despite blue state status. Brown has been stuck for months around 45%, looks like undecided voters are now moving

Ms. Whitman, trailing in every poll, has rolled out a big get-out-the-vote operation, funded with part of the $162 million she has spent on the race so far. The effort is a particularly sophisticated version of voter-mobilization pushes candidates and parties are ratcheting up with less than a week before Election Day.

Many candidates believe get-out-the-vote drives could hold the key to victory, especially in close races such as Senate contests in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Washington and Illinois.

The big question, especially for Democrats, is what effect these increasingly elaborate initiatives will have in a year dominated by impassioned partisan divisions. Some voters appear intent on going to the polls regardless, while others seem stubbornly unmotivated. That could undermine a traditional advantage held by Democrats and their union backers in this area.
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Will these ground operations aid Carly Fiorina who is more favored in the polls?

Republican Ken Buck still holds a slight lead over incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet as Colorado’s U.S. Senate race heads down to the wire.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Buck earning 48% support to Bennet’s 44%. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
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Going down to the wire

Gallup's latest figures on the composition of the 2010 electorate suggest that, consistent with an earlier Gallup report, those voting in this year's congressional elections across the country will be similar in gender, age, and education to 2006 voters. At the same time, they will be substantially more Republican in their party orientation, and more conservative than has been the case in the past several midterms.
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The trends are there and polling has not really accounted for a large wave for the GOP.

Washington could stand a dose of cutting costs, reducing bureaucracy and challenging the unhealthy sense of entitlement creeping into our culture. Sound like someone we need in a political leader? I think it does. Attacks on Fiorina focus on her decision to reduce the number of jobs and move jobs oversees. I would venture to say that every CEO who has ever fulfilled his or her corporate responsibilities during a time of economic downturn (as Fiorina experienced) makes similar moves. Every CEO weighs tax and regulatory implications as they choose where plants and people are located. In fact, it is these tough choices that qualify Fiorina for the U.S. Senate.
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