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links for 2010-11-01
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The Cook Political Report's pre-election House outlook is a Democratic net loss of 50 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible. A turnover of just 39 seats would tip majority status into Republican hands. The midterm maelstrom pulling House Democrats under shows no signs of abating, if anything it has intensified. Whereas fewer than a third of Democratic Senate seats are up for election, House Democrats are suffering the full violence of this national undertow. Over a quarter of the entire 255-member House Democratic caucus have trailed GOP opponents in at least one public or private survey, and nearly half have tested under 50 percent of the vote in at least one poll.
The Cook Political Report is adjusting its current outlook to reflect a net gain for Republicans of 6 to 8 seats, down from 7 to 9 seats. While it is becoming increasingly likely that Republicans will hold all 18 of its own seats.
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GOP will take the Senate in 2012. -
Something must be going on if at a Republican headquarters in one of the “bluest” regions of one of the “bluest” states, they run out of workable phones on the eve of the Election. Meanwhile, the most memorable line at a recent rally for Democratic candidates not far from super-liberal West Hollywood was “We’re not exhausted.“
At the same rally, a stalwart Democrat said that if the president weren’t there, she doesn’t know if she “would have braved the crowds.” Doesn’t sound like there’s much enthusiasm for their ticket. Republican volunteers across the state have been making calls while Democrats have been relying on paid union phone banks.
This enthusiasm gap could well make the difference in a state where, while Democrats remain ahead, all serious polls show late-deciders breaking toward the GOP. And it’s not just the Golden State where Republicans are more enthusiastic.
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Yes and I have seen NO enthusiasm from the other side. They will stay home and enjoy the sun -
Politicians are brands. Like their counterparts in the private sector, we’ve seen some pretty interesting things when it comes to using social media on the campaign trail.
Representative democracy seems the perfect place for social media — a direct communications channel between the governed and the government. But are we headed toward a more interconnected body politic, or a new sea of unmanageable political noise?
With the U.S. midterm elections in their final throes, we spoke to some key players for their views on what the rise of mainstream social media has in store for the next generation of political campaigns.
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And, boy, did the Right's adoption of Twitter and Facebook change the political landscape – forever. -
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, meanwhile, made the point that Palin's anti-establishment credibility is only helped when Republican operatives air their concerns anonymously to the consummate insider publication.
"I worked for Ronald Reagan, you know the 11th Commandment was don't criticize another Republican," he said during an appearance on "Fox and Friends" on Monday. "Let's not start this presidential race before this election is over and let's not go through the negativity we went through in the last one where Republicans attacked the heck out of each other. We have got a bigger mission here. Sarah Palin has every right to make her case to the Republican Party. How about we let the Republicans decide — not the so-called leaders — whether she is qualified or not?"
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Coming from Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush = Politico oiece
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California Ballot Proposition Recommendations Part 2
OK, here are my California Ballot Proposition Recommendations:
YES on Proposition 23: SUSPENDS IMPLEMENTATION OF AIR POLLUTION CONTROL LAW (AB 32) REQUIRING MAJOR SOURCES OF EMISSIONS TO REPORT AND REDUCE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS THAT CAUSE GLOBAL WARMING, UNTIL UNEMPLOYMENT DROPS TO 5.5 PERCENT OR LESS FOR FULL YEAR. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
NO on Proposition 24: REPEALS RECENT LEGISLATION THAT WOULD ALLOW BUSINESSES TO LOWER THEIR TAX LIABILITY. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
No on Proposition 25: CHANGES LEGISLATIVE VOTE REQUIREMENT TO PASS BUDGET AND BUDGET-RELATED LEGISLATION FROM TWO-THIRDS TO A SIMPLE MAJORITY. RETAINS TWO-THIRDS VOTE REQUIREMENT FOR TAXES. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT.
Yes on Proposition 26: REQUIRES THAT CERTAIN STATE AND LOCAL FEES BE APPROVED BY TWO-THIRDS VOTE. FEES INCLUDE THOSE THAT ADDRESS ADVERSE IMPACTS ON SOCIETY OR THE ENVIRONMENT CAUSED BY THE FEE-PAYER’S BUSINESS. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT.No on Proposition 27: ELIMINATES STATE COMMISSION ON REDISTRICTING. CONSOLIDATES AUTHORITY FOR REDISTRICTING WITH ELECTED REPRESENTATIVES. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT AND STATUTE.
And, there you have the rest of the California Propositions on tomorrow’s ballot. Part one is here (Propositions 19 through 22).
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CA-Sen: OOPS Barbara Boxer and Maxine Waters Did It Again
California U.S. Senate Barbara Boxer and Congresswoman Maxine Waters in July 2010
You remember the FLAP?This will make for some interesting political theater after the GOP takes over the House and Maxine Waters gets to face her ethics trial.
As the Chair of the Senate Ethics Committee, and a 28-year inhabitant of Washington, DC, locked in a surprisingly tight race for re-election, one might expect Barbara Boxer to avoid controversial figures like the plague. But the challenges facing Boxer as she seeks to win a fourth term in the U.S. Senate on Tuesday apparently haven’t stopped her from buying the endorsement of her close friend, embattled Rep. Maxine Waters, once again. Below the fold are images of the pages of Waters’ 2010 general election “slate mailer” obtained by Big Government on Saturday, which showcases her endorsement. On page three of the mailer itself, Boxer is prominently recommended by Waters.
Here is some of the endorsement mailer:
I am looking forward to see both Maxine Water’s and Barbara Boxer’s FEC report on the expenditure after the election.
You know – follow the money.
Let’s hope that on the Barbara Boxer side it becomes a moot exercise with the election of Carly Fiorina. In any case, Maxine Waters is going to have some ethics problems.
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Election 2012: Why Stop Sarah Palin?
Sounds like Mitt Romney’s political operatives to me.
Top Republicans in Washington and in the national GOP establishment say the 2010 campaign highlighted an urgent task that they will begin in earnest as soon as the elections are over: Stop Sarah Palin.
Interviews with advisers to the main 2012 presidential contenders and with other veteran Republican operatives make clear they see themselves on a common, if uncoordinated, mission of halting the momentum and credibility Palin gained with conservative activists by plunging so aggressively into this year’s midterm campaigns.
Former New York Mayor and GOP Presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani has the best advice for the GOP.
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, meanwhile, made the point that Palin’s anti-establishment credibility is only helped when Republican operatives air their concerns anonymously to the consummate insider publication.
“I worked for Ronald Reagan, you know the 11th Commandment was don’t criticize another Republican,” he said during an appearance on “Fox and Friends” on Monday. “Let’s not start this presidential race before this election is over and let’s not go through the negativity we went through in the last one where Republicans attacked the heck out of each other. We have got a bigger mission here. Sarah Palin has every right to make her case to the Republican Party. How about we let the Republicans decide — not the so-called leaders — whether she is qualified or not?”
“I think they are missing the whole point of what is going on in our electorate right now because that is the worst possible way to take that kind of a lesson out of this election,” Giuliani added. “I think this time we have to have a Republican National Committee that disciplines Republicans who attack other Republicans. I see it starting already and it really disturbs me.”
And, I agree. Let the Republican primary elections take care of themselves.
Republican political operatives should obey Reagan’s 11th commandment and come out of the shadows, if they have the intestinal fortitude.
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CA-Sen Poll Watch: Carly Fiorina Within Reach of Barbara Boxer?
I would say yes.
In fact, Real Clear Politics has moved the California Senate race to toss-up over the weekend from leans Democrat.
Let’s look at the last few polls with Senator Barbara Boxer’s supposed insurmountable lead disappearing into the margin of error. Remember in the latest PPP poll which is a Democrat sponsored poll, Boxer was ahead by 9 points just one week ago.
The California polls are skewing the number of Democrats Vs. Republicans Vs. Decline to State voters. They really have NO idea who will turn out and actually vote in such a large state.
I think Carly Fiorina, despite the scathing negative TV ads, will ultimately win this race by 3 points. Boxer has done a poor job for California, the economy here sucks and voters will punish her by sending her to retirement.
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California Ballot Proposition Recommendations Part 1
OK, here are my California Ballot Proposition Recommendations:NO on Proposition 19: LEGALIZES MARIJUANA UNDER CALIFORNIA BUT NOT FEDERAL LAW. PERMITS LOCAL GOVERNMENTS TO REGULATE AND TAX COMMERCIAL PRODUCTION, DISTRIBUTION, AND SALE OF MARIJUANA. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
YES on Proposition 20: REDISTRICTING OF CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT.
NO on Prpposition 21: ESTABLISHES $18 ANNUAL VEHICLE LICENSE SURCHARGE TO HELP FUND STATE PARKS AND WILDLIFE PROGRAMS. GRANTS SURCHARGED VEHICLES FREE ADMISSION TO ALL STATE PARKS. INITIATIVE STATUTE.
YES on Proposition 22: PROHIBITS THE STATE FROM BORROWING OR TAKING FUNDS USED FOR TRANSPORTATION, REDEVELOPMENT, OR LOCAL GOVERNMENT PROJECTS AND SERVICES. INITIATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT.The rest I will post later in the day.
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Election 2010: Republicans Appear Poised For A Big Win Tomorrow
Good news for America tomorrow.The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans’ voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House.
The results are from Gallup’s Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot — depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup’s analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.
Republicans’ 15-point lead among likely voters contrasts with their 4-point lead, 48% to 44%, among registered voters, highlighting the importance of higher GOP turnout to the election outcome. This wide difference between the GOP’s margin among registered voters and its margin among likely voters is similar to the 2002 midterms, in which Democrats led by 5 points among all registered voters in Gallup’s final pre-election poll, while Republicans led by 6 points among likely voters — an 11-point gain.
These final estimates of the vote among registered and likely voters are consistent with Gallup polling since Sept. 23. Republicans have led by an average of 4 points among registered voters and by 16 points among a low-turnout estimate of likely voters since that time. Thus, while voter preferences could change in the final two days, perhaps resulting from Democrats’ final push to motivate their base to turn out, voter preferences appear to be quite settled in this final post-Labor Day phase of the campaign.
Looks like control of the House of Representatives will change tomorrow from Democrat to Republican with the ouster of Speaker Nancy Pelosi. U.S. Senate control may or not change depending upon the GOP wave and how pervasive it becomes. We may know later in the day tomorrow about the Senate as Washington State and California returns come in.
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Day By Day November 1, 2010 – Free At Last
Tomorrow America will be “free at last” from the socialistic policies of Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid who have driven the United States economy further into a ditch.Tomorrow cannot come soon enough for freedom and liberty.
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