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links for 2010-12-02
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Control of the House of Representatives after the 2012 elections will still belong to the Republicans. IF Barack Obama stages a political comeback (which is certianly within the realm of possibility), Democrats will start the presidential coattails drumbeat. However, there are two compelling tables in this post underscoring that the House outcome will dance to the beat of a different drummer.
These two factors will end up having a snowball effect, costing Democrats in retirements, candidate recruitment, and fundraising – all of which will further debilitate their comeback efforts.
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Redistricting due to the census is the most important development.of the 2010 elections -
Sarah Palin raised $469,000 between Oct. 13 and Nov. 22 bringing her total for the year to over $3 million, Tim Crawford, SarahPAC's treasurer, told TIME exclusively. Crawford attributed the surge of funds to energy surrounding the midterm elections, Palin's endorsements and her TLC reality show “Sarah Palin's Alaska.” Her second book, America By Heart, came out Nov. 23.
The PAC spent $64,000 buying advance copies of her books, “just as we did last year” with her first book, Going Rogue, Crawford said. “They're a great fundraising tool for us.” Palin is in the midst of a two-week cross-country book tour.
Overall the PAC spent $581,000 between Oct. 13 and Nov. 22. A larger percentage than normal was spent on contributions to political candidates, $244,000, as Palin tried to help her 81-endosed candidates over the Nov. 2 finish line. Fifty-five of them won.
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Major League fundraising as she gears up for a run?
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Delaying Tax Vote Could Crash Stock Market on December 15th
Delaying Tax Vote Could Crash Stock Market on December 15th
"Failure by Congress to extend the Bush tax cuts, especially locking in the 15 percent capital gains tax rate, will spark a stock market sell off starting December 15 as investors move to lock in gains at a lower rate than the 20 percent it would jump to next year, warn analysts. While it is unclear how bad the sell off could be, it could wipe out the year’s gains, they warn.
"Capital gains tax rate will increase from 15 to 20 percent if the tax cuts are not extended. The last time the capital gains tax rate increased–on Jan. 1, 1987 from 20 to 28 percent–investors realized their gains at the lower tax rate," said Daniel Clifton at a Washington partner at Strategas Research Partners.
"We would expect a similar effect this time around as investors see the tax rate going up and choose to realize their gains and incur the 15 percent tax." In a memo to clients, Clifton says that the date most clients are focused on is December 15th for a deal in Congress before beginning to sell. One reason: Many stock options expire that day and investors have to act."
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House Democrats Vote to Increase Taxes
House Democrats Vote to Increase Taxes
"Congressional Democrats rammed a bill through the House of Representatives Thursday indefinitely extending the Bush-era tax cuts only for families making $250,000 a year or less. It would maintain the current Alternative Minimum Tax limit for two years. The measure, which passed on a sharply polarized 234-188 vote, would allow the Bush tax cuts to expire after December 31 for the wealthiest Americans. Most Democrats backed the bill, while most Republicans opposed it. GOP leaders are insisting on an extension of the tax cuts for all Americans. All 42 Senate Republicans publicly vowed Monday to prevent a final vote on any other legislative business in the lame duck session until Congress has "prevented the tax increase that is currently awaiting all American taxpayers.""
The U.S. Senate will likely filibuster this cynical attempt to raise taxes on small business and demagogue the issue of tax rates for the wealth.
But, the LEFT will have a field day painting the GOP as the party of the rich.
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Sen. Jim DeMint: Why I May Filibuster New START
Sen. Jim DeMint: Why I May Filibuster New START
Many of us have been concerned that the START Treaty would weaken our national security, and recent revelations of previously undisclosed talks with Russia on missile defense and movement of Russian tactical nuclear warheads only raise more questions that must be answered. I’ve asked for the full negotiating records, as have been provided to the Senate on previous treaties, but the Obama administration has continually denied that request and promised that missile defense was never part of the negotiations with Russia. But we have now learned that the State Department did in fact meet with Russia to specifically discuss missile defense, after months of denying these discussions ever took place. With the additional news that Russia moved warheads near the borders of our NATO allies this spring — warheads that are conspicuously not covered by START — it’s time to get some straight answers and for the State Department to provide the full negotiating records. The START Treaty could severely weaken America’s ability to defend our people and our allies against missile attacks from nations like Iran, and we need all of the facts on how this treaty was agreed to.
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Poll Watch: Mixed Reviews in Missouri for Obama
Poll Watch: Mixed Reviews in Missouri for Obama
"Barack Obama’s best chance to win Missouri may have passed…unless the Republicans nominate Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich. After losing the state by the smallest of margins in 2008 Obama is now unpopular in the state, with 52% of voters disapproving of him to only 43% who approve. He trails Mike Huckabee by 7 points (49-42) and Mitt Romney by 6 points (47-41) in hypothetical match ups. But Palin and Gingrich are even more unpopular in the state than he is and as a result he leads Palin by a 46-43 margin and trails Gingrich only 45-44. Huckabee is the only one of the Republicans Missouri voters are particularly fond of. 51% have a favorable opinion of him to only 29% with a negative one. He’s pretty universally well liked with Republicans, a quarter of Democrats view him positively, and with independents he’s at a 46/27 spread. All the rest of the Republicans have negative favorability numbers, with them all following the same formula: Democratic voters dislike them more strongly than GOP ones like them and they all get negative reviews from independents. Romney’s favorability is a -12 spread (30/42), Palin’s is -14 (39/53), and Gingrich’s is -15 (33/48)."
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Florida to propose Arizona-style immigration enforcement law
Florida to propose Arizona-style immigration enforcement law
“The proposal will almost certainly pass in some form, and that means Obama will have to decide whether to repeat his offensive against Arizona with Floridians as the target. Arizona meant little to Obama in terms of his re-election effort; its small number of Electoral College votes will almost certainly go to the GOP in any case. However, Florida is a much bigger problem. Obama won the state in 2008 on his way to a comfortable EC win over John McCain, but key states in that victory have shifted Republican since, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. At this point, Obama can hardly afford to lose Florida, but he cannot attack Arizona while leaving Florida off the hook, either. Obama could try keeping his own mouth shut and letting Eric Holder pursue a case against Florida, but after his PR blitz this year on the Arizona law, no one’s going to buy a hands-off illusion now. If the DoJ continues to sue states while the White House pushes back against a border-security-first approach, Obama will lose what flagging support he still has in a critical state just in time for the presidential election.”
There will be similar immigration “wedge” issues in other southern and midwestern states just in time for the 2012 Presidential elections.
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RNC Can’t Pay Its Bills — Cites ‘Cash Flow’ Problem
RNC Can’t Pay Its Bills — Cites ‘Cash Flow’ Problem
“The Republican National Committee, the GOP’s fundraising and organizational arm, is facing a “cashflow challenge” and can’t pay all of its bills on time. In a memo Tuesday, RNC Chief Administrative Officer Boyd Rutherford wrote, “We will not be able to pay off the vendors this week. We will be slow in paying as we are having a cashflow challenge. Everyone will be slow paid until after the first of the year.”The acknowledgment by Rutherford of the RNC’s money woes comes at a bad time for the group’s chairman, Michael Steele, who already faces several potential challengers for another two-year term, writes the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza. Aside from Steele’s verbal gaffes, the cash-flow issue is likely to re-open the debate about his financial stewardship, the Post said.”
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Obama’s Troubling Acceptance Of Argentina’s Sovereign Default
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Obama’s Troubling Acceptance Of Argentina’s Sovereign Default
“Argentina has felt free to flout international financial norms and stiff its creditors for years. When the U.S. government sides with Argentina against those creditors, you can be sure that financial officials in Dublin and Athens as well as Lisbon, Rome and Spain all take keen notice. The Obama administration must reaffirm America’s commitment to the sanctity of contract. And U.S. courts would be best served by not letting misguided policy arguments influence the rule of law.”
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Will Carly Fiorina Run for RNC Chair?
Republican senatorial candidate Carly Fiorina (L) watches election results in her hotel room with husband Frank Fiorina (2nd R) and granddaughters Kara Tribby (2nd L) and Morgan Tribby (R) before attending the California Republican Party election night party in Irvine, California on November 2, 2010
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Senate Election 2012: Jim DeMint Targets Four Democrats: Tester, Nelson, Conrad, Manchin
U.S. Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC) (C) arrives to address the group Americans for Prosperity as they hold a rally on the grounds of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, November 15, 2010
Good choices for Senator DeMint and these Democrat Senators: Jon Tester (Montana), Ben Nelson (Nebraska), Kent Conrad (North Dakota) and Joe Manchin (West Virginia) should be easy pickings for the GOP, provided good candidates are recruited.South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint (R) is turning his attention to 2012 and using the vote this week on an earmark moratorium to pick his Democratic targets.
DeMint sent an email to the supporters of his Senate Conservatives Fund early Wednesday highlighting four Democrats who voted against the earmark ban, are up for re-election in 2012 and sit in states that John McCain (R) carried in 2008: Sens. Jon Tester (Mont.), Ben Nelson (Neb.), Kent Conrad (N.D.) and Joe Manchin (W.Va.).
The email is DeMint’s first foray into the 2012 cycle and suggests he will continue to direct Tea Party energy in 2012. DeMint was something of a kingmaker on the far right in 2010, backing several conservative insurgent primary challengers to establishment Republicans — such as Sen.-elect Marco Rubio (R) in Florida and Sen.-elect Mike Lee (R) in Utah.