UCLA report: California Economic Recovery is Still Far Off
UCLA report: California Economic Recovery is Still Far Off
"The California economy will come back strong.
Just not right away.
That’s the gist of the UCLA Anderson Forecast, one of the most closely watched economic crystal balls in the state. The latest quarterly edition of the forecast, to be released today, says unemployment in California won’t dip below 10 percent until the fourth quarter of 2012.The statewide unemployment rate as of October was 12.4 percent.
Among the factors holding back stronger economic growth in the near term: the ongoing slump in housing, weakness among overseas trading partners, and the state’s budget deficit.
UCLA senior economist Jerry Nickelsburg said in an interview Monday that the recovery in California will be led largely by exporters."
There will have to be a major realignment of pro-business policies from new Democrat Governor Jerry Brown and the Democrat dominated California Legislature in order for business to either remain or relocate to California.
Taxes are very high and business regulations burdensome. Most importantly real estate prices continue in a highly inflated state and there is little new business employment who can support the mortgages.
Look for outmigration of business to Arizona and Texas which have more pro-business recruitment policies and conservative state governments.