Reapportionment Preview: Mapping Out States “On the Bubble”
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Reapportionment Preview: Mapping Out States “On the Bubble”
"On Tuesday, the Census Bureau will fulfill its constitutional mandate and release its highly anticipated official state population totals and the resulting allotment of House seats and Electoral College votes for the next decade.
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For some states, there isn’t much suspense. Georgia, Nevada, and Utah are all but certain to gain an additional seat in the House, while Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania are all but certain to lose a seat and Ohio is all but certain to lose two seats.
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However, much like NCAA basketball teams anticipate Selection Sunday, some states are “on the bubble” and won’t know how many seats they will have until Tuesday. According to population estimates released by Election Data Services’ Kimball Brace, the ten states in contention for the “last five” seats in the House (in order of likelihood to make the cut) are South Carolina, Florida, Minnesota, Washington, Texas, New York, California, Arizona, North Carolina, and Illinois.
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While South Carolina, Washington, California, and North Carolina are all in the running for one additional seat, Minnesota and Illinois are fighting just to preserve their current totals. The big winner, Texas, will gain either three or four new seats. Florida and Arizona will either gain one or two new seats. And New York will lose either one or two of its current seats. What’s at stake in the reapportionment release for these “bubble” states in 2012 and beyond?"
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This reapportionment undoubtedly help the GOP in its Presidential ambitions for 2012 as most gains are in already predominate "Red States."