Sarah Palin Faces Gloomy New Poll Numbers – But Does It Matter?
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, center, is interviewed by Fox News Channel journalist Greta Van Susteren during her visit to a cholera treatment center run by Rev. Franklin Graham’s relief organization Samaritan’s Purse in Cabaret, Haiti, Saturday Dec. 11, 2010.
A new set of poll numbers released on Tuesday reinforced the daunting challenge that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin would face in turning the tide in her favor among both Republican primary and general election voters if she were to decide to run for president in 2012.
Perhaps the most discouraging new number as it relates to Palin’s presidential ambitions was a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, which showed that 49 percent of Republicans said that they were now “very” or “somewhat likely” to support a Palin presidential bid.
At first glance, 49 percent may appear to be a promising slice of the GOP electorate, but it is down dramatically from the 67 percent of Republicans who said that they were likely to support a Palin run when they were asked in a previous CNN poll conducted in December of 2008.
Sixty-seven percent of Republicans in the new CNN poll said that they were somewhat or very likely to support former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in 2012, while 59 percent said the same of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
The CNN poll was conducted by telephone from December 17-19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus three percent.
And, looking at another survey, she does not do better.
Compounding those dour numbers for Palin was the release on Tuesday of a series of Democratically-affiliated Public Policy Polling (PPP) state surveys, which were conducted over the past couple of months. The PPP polls showed the former Alaska governor with low favorability ratings among voters in key battleground states.
In Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan, Palin’s overall favorability rating ranged from 34 percent to 37 percent. Meanwhile, her unfavorable rating in those seven bellwether states ranged from 52 percent to 60 percent.
But, the real question for Sarah Palin is whether she thinks a run against President Obama is winnable in nine or ten key battleground states.
- Ohio – 20 (electoral votes): -2 after reapportionment
- Virginia – 13
- Colorado – 9
- Florida -27: +2 after reapportionment
- Nevada – 5: +1 after reapportionment
- Wisconsin -10
- New Hampshire – 4
- Indiana – 11
- North Carolina – 15
I think Palin could win a multi-way GOP primary election/caucus against Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and/or Newt Gingrich. And, win easily and EARLY.
But, can she beat Obama in the states above?
Palin does not have to decide anytime soon (she will hold off a final decision until April 2011) and watch her political events in these states.
Sarah will be watching her polls and then it is time for deciding. If there is a chance of beating Obama, she runs.