Barack ObamaPresident 2012

President 2012 Poll Watch: NO SOTU Bump for Obama But Approval Remains Higher

Well, the Gallup poll trend line is unmistakable but President Obama has NOT received any BUMP from his State of the Union speech.
Gallup Daily tracking finds no change in President Obama’s job approval rating after his State of the Union address. The president’s 50% average for the week ending Sunday, Jan. 30, matches the prior week’s rating, which was the highest weekly average for Obama since May.

Obama’s approval ratings although not predictive of his 2012 election chances at this point, must give Obama pause. Giving a speech is one of his better political attributes and I am sure he would like to see his poll numbers go up to the mid-50’s.

Now, the turmoil in Egypt will weigh on his shoulders as it is perceived by all sides that his Administration has been indecisive.

President Obama’s job approval ratings will ultimately be a good predictor of his chances for re-election in November 2012, but at this early stage — some 21 months before the election — they have little election forecasting validity. Ronald Reagan, for example, had a low 35% approval rating in late January 1983, yet went on to win re-election handily in 1984. On the other hand, President George H.W. Bush enjoyed a job approval rating of 83% in late January 1991 as the U.S. engaged in the first Persian Gulf War, yet he was defeated in his bid for re-election the following year.