Ben Nelson

NE-Sen Poll Watch: Democrat Senator Ben Nelson in Deep Trouble

Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., left, and Sen. Mike Johanns, R-Neb. are seen on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Jan. 25, 2011, prior to the start of President Barack Obama’s State of the Union address

More than likely a GOP Senate pick-up in 2012.

Every poll released so far on the 2012 Nebraska Senate race has shown Ben Nelson in deep trouble and our numbers are no exception. Nelson trails Attorney General Jon Bruning 50-39 in a hypothetical contest and Treasurer Don Stenberg by a 45-41 margin.

It’s not hard to peg the reason for Nelson’s precarious situation: you need to have a lot of appeal to Republicans if you’re going to win as a Democrat in Nebraska, and while Nelson had that in the past he doesn’t seem to anymore. The 2006 exit poll showed him winning a pretty remarkable 42% of the GOP vote. Now his approval rating with Republicans is down at 26%, and he gets just 17% of their votes against Bruning and 16% against Stenberg. Nelson actually has a 9 point advantage with independents over Bruning and a 17 point one over Stenberg but that’s not enough given his lack of crossover support in the heavily GOP leaning state.

The GOP will need to flip four seats to take control of the U.S. Senate and this WILL be one of them.