Barack Obama,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney and Huckabee Even With Obama – Others Not So Much

February 6, 2011 /

Again, another Rasmussen poll on head to head GOP candidates for President Vs. President Obama.

An early look at potential 2012 match-ups indicates that the election is likely shaping up as a referendum on President Obama. That’s typical when an incumbent runs for reelection.

The numbers show that Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee essentially run even with Obama at this point. Romney is nominally up two points, 44% to 42%, while Huckabee is tied with the president at 43% apiece.

Three other well-known potential candidates, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul trail the president. Palin is down by 11 points, 49% to 38%, Gingrich by eight, 47% to 39%, and Paul by nine, 44% to 35%.

Romney, Palin, and Huckabee lead in early Republican Primary polling. 

But, neither Sarah Palin nor Mike Huckabee will be in the race if one or the other runs. I don’t think Mike Huckabee will run and I doubt with her recent polling that Sarah Palin will either.

My best bet is that Mitch Daniels and Jon Huntsman will be the anti-Romney candidates. When or if either of them fails, then they will be named the Vice President nominee to unify the party.

Seven lesser-known candidates trail by anywhere from 10 to 17 percentage points. However, the most significant finding is that regardless of what GOP candidate is named, the president earns between 42% and 49%. This suggests the campaign is starting off in a fairly competitive environment, though much can change in the next year-and-a-half.

If the president’s job approval ratings improve from this point forward, it is likely that his support will increase against all Republican candidates. If his job approval ratings fall, his numbers are likely to weaken against all potential candidates. It is reasonably safe to assume that the president’s actual vote total on Election Day 2012 will be close to his overall job approval rating.

It’s also worth noting that a great deal of caution must be taken in terms of interpreting individual results. It is far from clear which candidates will seek the Republican nomination and who ultimately will be nominated. At this point in 2008, everybody assumed the Democratic nominee would be Hillary Clinton, and Rudy Giuliani was leading the Republican field. One candidate on our list, Mike Pence, has already dropped out of the race. Other names will be tested in the coming weeks.

4 Comments

  • celebs4truth

    February 7, 2011 at 10:12 am

    If it wasn’t for the obvious mainstream media demonization campaign against Ron Paul in ’08, he would have probably been president instead! ‘Almost’ everyone who truly knew his policies and political philosophy wanted Ron Paul to be president! Active military personnel during the ’08 campaign, as an example, donated more money to Ron Paul’s campaign than to all other candidates combined! Ron Paul was easily the best choice then, and other than his son now, is still the easiest choice for 2012! …If you’re a personal responsibility, constitutional government, and sound monetary policy kind of American, that is. (you know, just some of our original founding principles…or do you?)

    Additionally, based on the graphic above, you’ll notice that out of all the non-establishment candidates Ron Paul is the highest rated. Not to mention the fact that out of all those “leading” candidates, many if not all of those individuals are just as much, if not more Illuminati than even Obama is…and that’s really saying something! Besides, Obama is only half brother to bloodlines (via his mother) – …don’t believe me, see for yourself: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOnV1DDPQQg&feature=related

    Furthermore, if we don’t stop doing what we’ve always done, we won’t stop getting what we’ve always gotten! And yes, I’m talking about this liberty choking, dictator feeding habit of only talking about and supporting “two” parties…as if no other parties really have any real shot at it…WTF? Anyone else see any giant red flags? This horrible and dangerous media induced habit is not doing anyone any good…except for the mega corporations and their owners, who are controlling the media, selling total unhealthy and dishonest propaganda, and still getting away with it! There are many more parties than just two…and if you’re going to try and sell me that some slick tongued, well polished, and well funded politician (like Palin, Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich…Obama etc., etc.) is the way to go, I’ll say you’re literally insane…by definition! (and frankly, by many other standards as well)

    I mean, seriously…Are you really expecting me to believe that Sarah Palin, of all people would truly have any real shot if it weren’t for total media produced hype, glorification and worship of these people like their larger than life, better than thou, extra-extraordinary…as if these people are the only one’s that are even remotely close to being suitable to be “Commander and Chief” ??? Come on… LOL, like there aren’t thousands of individuals in the US that would probably be much better at doing this job than these slimy career politicians!