President 2012: Obama Still Doing Well in Colorado
If Barack Obama had to stand for reelection today he’d win Colorado pretty easily against any of the leading Republican Presidential contenders.
Obama has good approval numbers in the state, with 51% of voters expressing support for the job he’s doing right now to 45% disapprove. As is the case most everywhere pretty much all Democrats like him and pretty much all Republicans dislike him. Breaking the tie is his good numbers with independents who give him good marks by a 54/42 spread.
Obama is still slightly weaker in the state than he was in 2008 when he took it by 9 points in the general election. Tested against a generic Republican opponent he leads 51-44, so that 7 point lead represents a small amount of slippage from his previous margin of victory.
The heads-up:
- Obama 47% Vs. Romney 41%
- Obama 51% Vs. Huckabee 42%
- Obama 53 Vs. Gingrich 39%
- Obama 55 Vs. Palin 36%
Sarah Palin’s numbers include a 30 point deficit among independent voters.
This is another of Palin’s Goldwater states- the last time a Democrat won Colorado by this kind of margin was 1964 when Lyndon Johnson took it by 23 points.
GOP Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Romney – 40% Vs. 40%
- Huckabee – 37% Vs. 40%
- Gingrich – 26% Vs. 55%
- Palin – 32% Vs. 62%
The Colorado Hispanic/Age gap:
Beyond Obama’s relative popularity and the weakness of the GOP contenders there’s another reason Democrats are looking good in the state and that’s where it’s headed demographically. The Hispanic vote is only going to become more and more influential and Obama leads the Republicans by anywhere from 24-30 points with those voters. And more so than in most states there’s a huge age divide in the political preferences of the state’s electorate- for instance against Romney Obama trails 53-38 with voters over 65. But he leads 49-37 with everyone else.
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It seems obama has more chances than expected