• Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for March 23rd on 15:36

    March 23, 2011 /

    These are my links for March 23rd from 15:36 to 15:54:

    • Capitol Alert: 9th Circuit denies request to lift stay on Prop. 8 ruling – 9th Circuit denies request to lift stay on Proposition 8 Gay Marrriage Ruling
    • FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Updated with Polls: President 2012: Sarah Palin is UNLIKELY to Run for President? #tcot
    • 9th Circuit denies request to lift stay on Proposition 8 Gay Marrriage Ruling – The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals denied a motion today to lift its stay on a lower court ruling declaring unconstitutional voter-approved Proposition 8, which prohibited same-sex marriage.

      The American Foundation for Equal Rights, which is representing two same-sex couples challenging Proposition 8, had filed the motion, which would have allowed same-sex marriages to go forward while the 9th Circuit considered an appeal of the ruling by U.S. District Judge Vaughn Walker.

      That process promises to stretch through this year, as the 9th Circuit awaits an opinion it requested from the state Supreme Court on whether the proponents of the 2008 ballot measure, Protectmarriage.com, can defend Proposition 8 under state law.

      ======

      It would have been unusual had the appeals court lifted the stay. This will take years to eventually be settled in the U.S. Supreme Court.

  • Barack Obama,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 North Carolina Poll Watch: President Obama Competitive With GOP?

    March 23, 2011 /

    Perhaps so according to the latest PPP poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapporoval:

    • President Barack Obama – 48% Vs. 46%

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mike Huckabee – 42% Vs 39%
    • Mitt Romney – 32% Vs. 41%
    • Newt Gingrich – 29% Vs. 48%
    • Sarah Palin – 37% Vs 57%

    Head to Head:

    • Obama 45% Vs. Huckabee 45%
    • Obama 44% Vs. Romney 42%
    • Obama 47% Vs. Gingrich 42%
    • Obama 51% Vs. Palin 40%

    North Carolina is a “must have” for the Republican nominee in the race for 2012. It should be a state where the GOP can make Electoral college vote gains.

    The fact that Obama’s even money or better to win North Carolina again while Democrats appear to be in dire shape in the Gubernatorial race speaks to how much things are changing in the state’s politics. The last time the state went Democratic for President and Republican for Governor was 1896. The only times it elected Republican Governors in the 20th century it simultaneously voted for Republican Presidential candidates by margins of 40 points (in 1972), 24 points (in 1984), and 16 points (in 1988). But it looks entirely possible that the state will elect a GOP Governor next year without winning the Presidential contest at all, much less winning it in the sort of landslide that has previously allowed the party’s Gubernatorial candidates to come along for the ride

    Hiowever, the GOP field is weak against the incumbent President. Either the GOP steps up their game with a new generation candidate or Obama will again win North Carolina and the Presidency.

  • President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    Updated with Polls: President 2012: Sarah Palin is UNLIKELY to Run for President?

    March 23, 2011 /

    Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin is escorted by Western Wall Rabbi Shmuel Rabinovitz (L) and Israeli lawmaker Danny Danon (R) as she leaves the Western Wall tunnels in Jerusalem’s Old City March 20, 2011. Palin began a private visit to Israel on Sunday, her first to the Jewish state, and planned to meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and tour holy sites

    Yes, UNLIKLEY, according to Weekly Standard Bill Kristol

    Weekly Standard Editor Bill Kristol was among Sarah Palin’s earliest Washington admirers, and helped bring her to the national stage, but he said this week that while he still admires her, he questions her choices and doesn’t think she should be the Republican nominee for president. (…)

    But Kristol — one of her key boosters — went on to raise many of the same questions that have undercut her prospects inside the Republican Party.

    “When she quit as governor of Alaska, that was a questionable move from her point of view, but I thought at least then that she would come to the mainland and really participate in the national debate,” he said. “Instead, [it] turns out that she loves Alaska, which is to her credit  — but then I don’t know why she quit as governor.”

    “She has a very shrewd judgment about politics and policy and very good instincts — but she hasn’t done what Reagan … did, which is really educate himself over a number of years,” Kristol said.

    “i think she’s unlikely to be the Republican nominee, and to be honest I think she probably shouldn’t be the Republican nominee for president,” he said, adding that he thinks she’s “unlikely” to run.

    Sarah has not been polling very well and it is the general consensus that Obama would wipe her out in just about every state. As I have said, I like Sarah, but 2012 is not her year. She has plenty of time to grow, raise her family and prepare herself for a run in the future – if that is what she wants.

    Update:

    PPP polling provides some reasons why:

    Above is Sarah Palin polling state by state.

    • A majority of voters in 26 of the 27 states have a negative opinion of Palin- the only exception is West Virginia where just 47% rate her unfavorably to 41% with a position opinion.
    • Palin’s favorability spread is -20 or worse in 19 of the 27 states we’ve polled.
    • There are only three states where Palin’s favorability spread is better than -10: in addition to West Virginia they are Nebraska and Montana.
    • There are eight states where her spread is -30 or worse: in addition to typically blue states like New Jersey, California, Massachusetts, Maine and Rhode Island that includes swing states like Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia.

    Sarah Palin could very well win the GOP nomination, but why bother?

  • President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012: Sarah Palin is UNLIKELY to Run for President?

    March 23, 2011 /

    Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin is escorted by Western Wall Rabbi Shmuel Rabinovitz (L) and Israeli lawmaker Danny Danon (R) as she leaves the Western Wall tunnels in Jerusalem’s Old City March 20, 2011. Palin began a private visit to Israel on Sunday, her first to the Jewish state, and planned to meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and tour holy sites

    Yes, UNLIKLEY, according to Weekly Standard Bill Kristol

    Weekly Standard Editor Bill Kristol was among Sarah Palin’s earliest Washington admirers, and helped bring her to the national stage, but he said this week that while he still admires her, he questions her choices and doesn’t think she should be the Republican nominee for president. (…)

    But Kristol — one of her key boosters — went on to raise many of the same questions that have undercut her prospects inside the Republican Party.

    “When she quit as governor of Alaska, that was a questionable move from her point of view, but I thought at least then that she would come to the mainland and really participate in the national debate,” he said. “Instead, [it] turns out that she loves Alaska, which is to her credit  — but then I don’t know why she quit as governor.”

    “She has a very shrewd judgment about politics and policy and very good instincts — but she hasn’t done what Reagan … did, which is really educate himself over a number of years,” Kristol said.

    “i think she’s unlikely to be the Republican nominee, and to be honest I think she probably shouldn’t be the Republican nominee for president,” he said, adding that he thinks she’s “unlikely” to run.

    Sarah has not been polling very well and it is the general consensus that Obama would wipe her out in just about every state. As I have said, I like Sarah, but 2012 is not her year. She has plenty of time to grow, raise her family and prepare herself for a run in the future – if that is what she wants.

  • Obamacare

    ObamaCare Poll Watch: One Year Later 59% Continue to Oppose

    March 23, 2011 /

    On the one year anniversary of its signing, Americans continue to oppose President Obama’s health care reform legislation.

    One year after President Barack Obama signed the health care reform bill into law, a new national poll indicates that attitudes toward the plan have not budged.

    According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Wednesday, on the one year anniversary of the signing of the law, a majority continue to oppose the measure, but some of the opposition is from Americans who think the law is not liberal enough.

    Thirty-seven percent of Americans support the measure, with 59 percent opposed. That’s basically unchanged from last March, when 39 percent supported the law and 59 percent opposed the measure.

    “It’s worth remembering that opposition to the bill came from both the left and the right last year, and that has not changed either,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “In 2010, about a quarter of the health care bill’s opponents disliked the bill because it was not liberal enough – the same as today. That works out to 13 percent of all Americans who oppose the bill because it did not go far enough. Forty-three percent oppose it because it was too liberal.”

    The passage of health care reform was seen as the signature domestic achievement of the president’s first two years in office. The law was a major issue in the midterm elections and with many Republicans continuing to push to either repeal or defund the plan, health care will most likely remain a very important issue in the 2012 election.

    There are two ways to look at the poll’s overall numbers. One is that 59 percent oppose the law. The second is that if you add the 13 percent who oppose the law because it’s not liberal enough to the 37 percent that support the law, you come up with 50 percent of the American people who disagree with the Republican leadership on the issue. The GOP gained control of the House and many state houses and legislatures in the November election on the basis, many experts said, of their strong opposition to what they said was “government controlled health care.”

    In what was seen as a largely symbolic move, the GOP controlled House voted earlier this year to repeal the law. At the same time, a number of legal cases that aim to overturn the measure are advancing through the federal court system.

    With all this in mind, the poll continues to indicate a partisan divide, but also a gender gap among people who oppose the health care law.

    Just repeal this bad legislation before its taxes and Medicare cuts come into full force in 2014. Not only will ObamaCare bankrupt state governments, but will also hurt employment prospects for millions.

  • President 2012,  Rudy Giuliani

    President 2012: Rudy Giuliani to Run to Stop a Right Wing Presidential Candidate?

    March 23, 2011 /


    Rudy Giuliani speaking today in Palm Beach, Florida

    I doubt it.

    Former New York Mayor and 2008 Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani left the door open for a 2012 run tonight, saying he’d think about launching another White House bid if it looks the GOP might otherwise pick a nominee who is too right-wing.

    Giuliani backed away from his previous suggestion that he’d be more likely to run if Sarah Palin got in the race. He said another potential 2012 GOP candidate, Mitt Romney, should declare the health care plan he championed as governor of Massachusetts was a mistake.

    Giuliani spoke for about 90 minutes to a Palm Beach Republican Club crowd of about 200 at The Colony hotel.

    During a Q-and-A session, he was asked about his January comments on CNN that he’d be tempted to run if Palin were a candidate. Giuliani called that remark rash. But he said his fears of the GOP choosing a nominee who can’t win a general election might prompt him to run.

    If all we are faced with are candidates that are too far right so that they can’t win the general election, then that’s when I’d reconsider doing it, Giuliani said.

    Again, there has been no sign from the Bat Cave to former 2008 Presidential campaign staffers. But, Rudy would be a good Vice Presidential pick or campaign surrogate for the GOP in 2012.

    And, this will be Rudy’s role next year.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for March 23rd on 09:46

    March 23, 2011 /

    These are my links for March 23rd from 09:46 to 11:39:

  • Polling,  President 2012,  Tim Pawlenty

    GOP Presidential Poll Watch: Pawlenty Begins Race for 2012 with Only 41% Name Recognition

    March 23, 2011 /


    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who this week became the first major Republican to announce the formation of a presidential exploratory committee, has 41% name recognition among Republicans nationwide. He trails a number of other potential GOP presidential candidates on this measure.

    Let’s face it, former Minnesota Governor tim Pawlenty will NOT be the 2012 Presidential nominee. Pawlenty is really running for either the 2012 Vice Presidential nomination or for 2016 when there will not be an incumbent President running for re-election.

    Here is a chart on intensity scores:

    Here, Tim Pawlenty is tied with Mitt Romney, but Romney will spend Pawlenty under the table. Plus, Romney is assured a primary victory in New Hampshire early on.

    The bottom line:

    Name recognition is a necessary ingredient in a politician’s race to win his or her party’s nomination for president. The last eight Republicans who won their party’s presidential nomination — John McCain, George W. Bush, Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, and Barry Goldwater — were well-known and well-established politicians. Even George W. Bush, who was a state governor with no national experience in the year before he won the Republican nomination, had a recognition score of over 80% when Gallup first measured him in February 1999, albeit aided in part by his famous last name.

    Additionally, Barack Obama, who stands as an example of an individual who came from relative obscurity to national prominence, had a name recognition score of over 75% by March 2007, the year before he gained the Democratic nomination.

    Pawlenty and Barbour thus face a serious challenge as they begin their quests to gain their party’s nomination. Well under half of their party’s rank-and-file members across the country at this point, less than a year before the first primaries and caucuses take place, know who they are. Both Pawlenty and Barbour, as well as other Republicans who are expected to formally announce their candidacies over the next few months, will be crisscrossing the country for the remainder of the year in an effort to make themselves known — and liked — by potential GOP primary voters. Gallup’s weekly tracking and reporting on the name recognition and Positive Intensity Scores of potential Republican presidential candidates will gauge how successful the candidates are in these endeavors.

  • Debbie Stabenow,  Peter Hoekstra,  Saul Anuzis,  Terri Lynn Land,  U.S. Senate 2012

    MI-Sen Poll Watch: Dem Sen Debbie Stabenow Looking Better for Re-Election?

    March 23, 2011 /

    Yes, according to the latest PPP Poll.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Sen. Debbie Stabenow –  46% Vs. 39% (41% vs. 40% in December)
    • Terri Lynn Land – 37% Vs. 19%, GOP – 55% Vs. 7%
    • Pete Hoekstra – 30% Vs. 28%, GOP – 52% Vs. 9%
    • Saul Anuzis – only 20% know enough about for an opinion
    • Randy Hekman – only 17% of voters claim an opinion

    Head to Head:

    • Stabenow – 48% Vs. Land – 38%
    • Stabenow – 50% Vs. Hoekstra – 38%
    • Stabenow – 52% Vs. Anuzis – 35%
    • Stabenow – 52% Vs. Hekman – 33%

    It looks like this Michigan Senate seat will not be in GOP cross-hairs in 2012. With a large 2012 African-American turnout to re-elect President Obama, the GOP will be faced with insurmountable Democratic registration numbers in this blue state.

    For the past few election cycles, with a poor economic climate in Michigan and the loss of jobs, Republicans also hope for a pick-up of some sort.

    Won’t happen in 2012.

    The full poll is here.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for March 23rd on 09:13

    March 23, 2011 /

    These are my links for March 23rd from 09:13 to 09:44:

    • California Prison cell phone bill? Wimpy – State Sen. Alex Padilla, flanked by law enforcement officials, stood on the Capitol's steps Tuesday before an array of cell phones confiscated from prison inmates and declared that smuggling had become an epidemic.

      It is, Padilla said, a "clear and present danger to public safety" as inmates use smuggled phones to harass victims and witnesses and plot other crimes. He called to the podium a woman who said she received harassing calls from her husband's murderer.

      Padilla et al. made a compelling case for a crackdown on smuggling cell phones – nearly 11,000 were confiscated last year. But the bill that cleared the Senate Public Safety Committee two hours later is rather wimpy. It makes smuggling nothing more than a misdemeanor, even for prison employees who are the sources of many illicit phones.

      Last year, then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger vetoed a similar Padilla bill – the first anti-smuggling bill to reach his desk after several died in the Legislature – on grounds that it was too weak and that smuggling cell phones should be a felony.

      =====

      Of course, this should be a felony. But, do you really expect any public safety laws to pass while Jerry I appointed Rose Bird Chief Justice Brown is Governor?

      I mean really.

      Brown will start letting felons out of the prisons to balance his budget in order to pay of his union cronies.

      And, when these criminals start reoffending, Brown will either shrug it off or blame the Republicans.

    • The Koch Brothers: Anatomy of a Smear – The Center for American Progress is generally regarded as a front for the Obama administration. Its President and CEO is John Podesta, formerly Bill Clinton's Chief of Staff and the chairman of Barack Obama's transition team. CAP is lavishly funded by George Soros and several other left-wing billionaires. It runs, among other things, a web site called Think Progress, which cranks out a steady stream of slimy hit pieces for the benefit of the Obama administration and the far left.

      Soros apparently believes that only left-wing billionaires should be able to participate in public discourse, so his Center for American Progress, through its web site, has carried on a bizarre vendetta against Charles and David Koch and their company, Koch Industries. The Kochs are two of the very few billionaires who are active in politics on the conservative/libertarian side, a phenomenon that apparently drives left-wing billionaires wild with rage. I'm not sure why; maybe they think the Kochs are traitors to their class. In any event,Think Progress has stalked the Koch brothers with video cameras and produced one false, over-the-top attack on the Kochs after another, some of which we have had fun dissecting here.

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      Read it all