Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Huckabee 16% Trump 16% Romney 13% Palin 10%

April 22, 2011 /


According to the latest Gallup Poll.

Donald Trump debuts in a first-place tie in Gallup’s latest update of Republicans’ preferences for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination among potential contenders. Trump ties Mike Huckabee at 16%, with Mitt Romney close behind at 13%. Sarah Palin is the only other potential Republican candidate to earn double-digit support.

Again, another national poll that does not reflect the reality of early state GOP caucuses and primary elections.

But, the fact that Donald Trump is polling better than Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty cannot give each of these declared candidates much pleasure.

With Ed Rollins, Mike Huckabee’s former 2008 Presidential campaign manager leaking that he thought Huck would make the run, folks looking at these polls will have to consider his numerous first place finishes as being significant. If and when Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin drop out of potential candidacies then the heads up battle between Huckabee and Romney will be the race – unless Mitch Daniels enters the race as the Fred Thompson of 2012.

So, what does this all mean?

Trump’s strong showing in Republican nomination preferences is partly a function of his high profile. Currently, the top vote-getters are generally the best-known Republicans. Lesser-known potential candidates such as Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, and Rick Santorum have more limited support on the nomination ballot at this point.

That is a typical pattern in early nomination preference polls. Once campaigning gets underway in earnest later this year, and after the initial primaries and caucuses next year, some of the currently lesser-known candidates may emerge as stronger candidates, and some of the better-known candidates may fade.

In fact, the leaders in early nomination polls for the last two presidential election cycles — Joe Lieberman in 2003 and Hillary Clinton in 2007 on the Democratic side and Rudy Giuliani in 2007 on the Republican side — did not eventually win their party’s nomination, with Lieberman and Giuliani having poor showings in the early primaries.

Giuliani’s performance aside, the early leader in GOP primaries has usually gone on to win the nomination. The lack of a clear front-runner in this year’s field is a distinct departure from prior Republican contests. That situation could still change in the current campaign, since Romney is the only one of the four leading contenders who has taken any formal steps toward running for president.