Claire McCaskill,  Ed Martin,  Sarah Steelman,  Todd Akin,  U.S. Senate 2012

Mo-Sen Poll Watch: Claire McCaskill 46% Vs. Todd Akin 45%

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

  • Senator Claire McCaskill – 46% Vs. 47%

Approval Vs. Disapproval Vs. Not sure:

  • Todd Akin – 18% Vs. 21% Vs. 61%
  • John Brunner – 8% Vs. 19% Vs. 73%
  • Blaine Luetkemeye – 14% Vs. 22% Vs. 64%
  • Ed Martin – 11% Vs. 20% Vs. 70%
  • Sarah Steelman – 26% Vs. 22% Vs. 52%

General election Head to Head:

  • McCaskill – 46% Vs. Akin – 45%
  • McCaskill – 47% Vs. Brunner – 41%
  • McCaskill – 45% Vs. Luetkemeye – 42%
  • McCaskill – 46% Vs. Martin – 39%
  • McCaskill – 45% Vs. Steelman – 42%

Missouri Senator Clair McCaskill is vulnerable in 2012 and the GOP is counting on picking up her seat. The latest PPP Poll does nothing to give her campaign any optimism.

These margins don’t exactly look comfortable for McCaskill and a look inside the numbers suggests they’re likely to get worse. There are a good deal more undecided Republicans than Democrats in all of these match ups- 5% more undecided GOP voters against Steelman, 6% more against Akin, 10% more against Luetkemeyer, 11% more against Brunner, and 12% more against Martin. If those folks end up coming ‘home’ you’re looking at each of the Republican picking up another 2-4 points on the margin.

Why are there so many more Republican undecideds? The crop of GOP candidates continues to be mostly unknown to voters in the state. None of them reaches 50% name recognition. Steelman is the best known with 48% of voters having an opinion about her, 26% positive and 22% negative. She’s followed by 39% who know Akin (18/21), 36% who know Luetkemeyer (14/22), 31% who know Martin (11/20), and 27% who know Brunner (8/19).

The state of this race remains the same- McCaskill is one of the most vulnerable incumbents up for reelection next year. But the bad news cycles she endured over the last few months seemed like they had the potential to shift this race to one where she was favored to lose. In that sense the continued toss up status of the contest is good news for her.

Good news for McCaskill?

I suppopse she could be behind but with her airplane woes and the lack of GOP hit ads means that worst is yet to come.

This race will NOT be a toss-up but a GOP gain.