Poll Watch: Job Creation Improving in American Economy?

Yes, slightly according to the latest Gallup Poll.

Gallup’s Job Creation Index reached a new high of +13 in April. This does not differ much from the +12 of the prior two months, but well exceeds the +5 of April 2010.

And, where are the best areas of the country for jobs?

The South and the Midwest. The Western United States is lagging the rest of the country.

Here is the Hiring and Firing graph:

So, what does this all mean?

Politically, should the economy improve or if there is a perception that the economy is improving, it will benefit President Obama and his re-election efforts. But, we have to look at key battleground states where the election will actually be decided. It is the employment situation in those specific states that will be determinant.

The long-suffering job markets in the Midwest appear to be benefiting from continuing improvements in the manufacturing sector, and one of the benefits of the weak U.S. dollar has been to make U.S. exports more attractive globally. As a result, this region has the lowest firing in the nation and, along with the East, shows the most year-over-year improvement.

Still, increased manufacturing activity has been enough to stimulate only a modest improvement in job growth nationwide. Although technically hitting a new high in April, Gallup’s Job Creation Index suggests there has been a virtual stagnation of job market conditions over the past three months. This stagnation most likely reflects the slower economic growth of the first quarter that seems to have continued in April.

At the same time, the finding that job growth in April was consistent with that of February and March is not bad, given the current economic headwinds of surging food and gas prices.