Electoral College vote map of Larry Sabato
Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:
- President Barack Obama – 49% Vs. 46%
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Newt Gingrich – 19% vs. 63%
- Sarah Palin – 29% Vs. 63%
- Mitt Romney – 35% Vs. 47%
- Tim Pawlenty – 25% Vs. 41%
- Herman Cain – 20% vs. 40%
General Election Head to Head:
- Obama – 54% Vs. Gingrich – 33%
- Obama – 55% Vs. Palin – 35%
- Obama – 49% Vs. Romney – 40%
- Obama – 49% Vs. Pawlenty – 37%
- Obama – 50% Vs. Cain – 32%
Although President Obama is doing better in Iowa than the past polling period, his job approval ratings still lag. Obviously, Iowa voters are not happy with the current GOP Presidential field and they all perform less than John McCain in 2008.
When PPP polled Iowa in mid-April Barack Obama had negative approval numbers, was tied with Mike Huckabee, and led Mitt Romney by only 4 points in a state that he won by 10 points against John McCain in 2008. Now six weeks later Obama’s fortunes in the state have shifted dramatically, symbolizing the uptick in his political fortunes we’ve seen throughout the country in the month since the killing of Osama bin Laden. He now has positive approval numbers, doesn’t have to worry about Huckabee anymore, and has built his lead over Romney to a 9 point margin similar to what he won the last time around.
Also, Iowa is NOT considered by many to be a KEY battleground state that the GOP will need to beat Obama in the Electoral College. See the list here.
Obama’s approval numbers in Iowa aren’t that strong and it would certainly be premature to declare 17 months out from the election that he’ll win the state again. But the numbers here are another reminder that the weak Republican field is his greatest ally as he moves toward reelection, and that the GOP will have to come up with a stronger candidate to have a serious chance of defeating Obama next year.