President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: No Major Shake Up In GOP Field After New Hampshire Debate

According to the latest Gallup Poll.

Gallup Daily tracking finds no major shake-up in the GOP presidential candidates’ ratings among Republicans nationwide in the two weeks surrounding a New Hampshire debate that featured seven of the candidates. Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Michele Bachmann continue to enjoy the best overall positioning by virtue of having higher name recognition and Positive Intensity Scores than their potential rivals. By comparison, Jon Huntsman, who formally announced his candidacy Tuesday, is recognized by 34% of Republicans and enters the race with the third-lowest Positive Intensity Score of any candidate measured.

By my read of the graph, it is Romney, Cain, Palin and Bachmann who are in the hunt. The others not so much, especially Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman, who announced today.

Additionally, Bachmann’s intensity score edged up slightly (from +18 to +22) and Cain’s declined slightly (from +28 to +23). Given the sample sizes of Republicans familiar with each candidate (smaller than those familiar with Gingrich), these changes are not statistically significant; however, if they hold for another week, they would represent real shifts after the debate.

More generally, among those with the highest Positive Intensity Scores, Cain is performing better than he did earlier this year, Romney has recovered somewhat from a decline in his ratings in late April and May, and Bachmann is on par with her earlier ratings, while Palin is near her low point for the year.

Here is a graph of positive intensity scores:

So, what does this all mean?

As, I have been saying for a few weeks: Mitt Romney is the clear front-runner with Michele Bachmann in position to make a race of it. Some pundits have been almost praying for Rick Perry or Jon Huntsman to challenge Romney. But, I just do not see it.

Romney has been campaigning for President now for over 6 years, has the campaign and personal money to air many ads and while a mainstream candidate will do extremely well in the early primary states of New Hampshire and Nevada.

Michele Bachmann of the Tea Party will do well in her native Iowa and conservative South Carolina. Whether she can beat Romney in Florida or on Super Tuesday is unknown.

Again, I don’t think Sarah Palin will run and she has made no movement lately to change that opinion. Herman Cain is not well known enough, will compete in Iowa and then go away.

So, unless someone else comes in this week it is really a Romney vs. Bachmann race.

Romney, Palin, and Bachmann continue to fare best among Republicans nationwide by simultaneously being among the best-known names in the potential presidential field as well as generating positive reactions from those familiar with them. This nexus of recognition and popularity will be essential to each candidate’s success in the primary elections next year.

Romney, Palin, Gingrich, and Paul all face the difficult challenge of improving their images among Republicans who mostly know them and have already formed opinions about them.

Johnson, Huntsman, and, to a lesser extent, Rick Santorum, Cain, and Pawlenty, all have an arguably more difficult task in needing to expand their name recognition among Republicans at a time when major national press opportunities, such as debates, are still fairly infrequent. Also, because of their lower profiles, these candidates may find that the campaign funds for buying national TV time are hard to come by, a conundrum faced by most second-tier candidates.

Additionally, Gingrich, Pawlenty, and Palin have all experienced declines in popularity at the same time that Romney, Bachmann, and Cain are mostly holding steady.