• American Economy,  Barack Obama,  Jimmy Carter,  President 2012,  Ronald Reagan,  Unemployment Rate

    President 2012: In Key Battleground States Unemployment Has Increased Since October 2008

    Electoral College vote map of Larry Sabato

    Chris illizza over at the Washington Post looks at key battleground states for the Presidential race of 2012 and gives the data. You know the question in one of the Presidential debates to President Obama will be (like GOP challenger Ronald Reagan asked President Jimmy Carter in 1980): “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”

    Well, with the regards to unemployment the news is not good for President Obama.

    And that raw political reality could put President Obama in a difficult spot as he prepares to seek another four years in the White House amid conflicting signs about the relative health of the economy.

    The state-by-state unemployment numbers released late last week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics tell the story.

    In every one of the 14 swing states heading into 2012 — Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — the unemployment rate has risen since October 2008.

    The increases range from the tiny — just a 0.7-point jump in Minnesota and New Hampshire — to the titanic in places like Nevada (up 4.4 points) and Florida (up 3.6).

    And, Obama’s only response will be: “You should have seen how bad it would have been.”

    I don’t know if this is going to wash in Nevada and Florida.

    But, on the other hand of these 14 swing states that Cillizza mentions only 4 have May unemployment above the national average. But, you know that is spin and unemployment generally is worse since President Obama has been in office.

    President Reagan beat Jimmy Carter on the answer to the “better off” question. He won re-election because while unemployment was high, it was improving.

    That “trend line” vote is why the late President Ronald Reagan won a second term overwhelmingly in 1984 despite the fact that the unemployment rate was at 7.3 percent in October of the election year. (It had been at 10.3 percent as recently as March 1983.)

    The best way for Obama to counteract the “are you better off” question is to have evidence to point to that things are turning around — that whether or not you believe the country was on the brink of an economic catastrophe you see signs that your financial situation is improving and have reason to hope the future will be brighter.

    The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll suggests he’s not there yet.

    No, President Obama is not there yet and unless the economy improves very quickly, he will go the way of Jimmy Carter.

  • President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012: Sarah Palin Cancels Sudan Trip As Speculation Mounts

    Sarah Palin and Franklin Graham in Haiti, December 2010

    Apparently Sarah Palin’s trip to Sudan has been cancelled as well as her bus tour which was mentioned earlier.

    Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin has canceled a trip next month to war-ravaged Sudan, one of the most unstable nations in the world and the focus of passionate advocacy within the U.S. evangelical community.

    Palin scrapped her visit to the North African country for scheduling reasons, several sources close to her said. She was planning to travel with Franklin Graham, the son of evangelical leader Billy Graham, as well as Fox News personality Greta Van Susteren to the July 9 independence ceremony of South Sudan, the sources said.

    The decision comes at a time when speculation is mounting about whether Palin will seek the Republican presidential nomination. Her weeks-long silence since the end of her One Nation bus tour along the East Coast has prompted a raft of questions about whether there will be a second or third leg, as advisers initially said there would be, through the Midwest and the South.

    Palin weighed in on the debate via Twitter on Wednesday afternoon, tweeting “I did?” in response to several headlines reporting that she had canceled the tour.

    In the meantime, she is in Alaska enjoying what she has described on her reality TV show, “Sarah Palin’s Alaska,” as her family’s favorite time of year. This is when the Palins typically travel north for an annual salmon fishing trip to Bristol Bay.

    But, here is the tweet from Sarah:

    So, who knows?

    But, it is increasingly looking like she won’t be running for President in 2012.

    And, you know, if she enjoys the summer in Alaska and doesn’t make any further announcement regarding her Presidential intentions that is really her business. She will announce what she wants to announce, when she wants to announce it.

    You betcha on that one.

  • President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012: Where Did Sarah Palin Go?

    Sarah Palin (L), former governor of Alaska, boards her “One Nation Tour” bus with her daughter Piper after a visit to the Fox News headquarters in New York, June 1, 2011. Palin is on a tour of historical sites between Washington and New England

    An extended hiatus/pit stop – whatever that means?

    Less than a month after she appeared poised to shake up the Republican presidential campaign, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has once again receded from the 2012 limelight.

    When Palin launched her “One Nation” bus tour on Memorial Day amid a swirl of media attention and excitement from her fervent fan base, many political observers who had once dismissed her were reminded of the jolt that her candidacy could provide to what has thus far been a relatively sleepy GOP nominating fight.

    As Palin toured historical sites along the East Coast, she was clearly reveling in the tangible excitement she’d ginned up: She even eagerly answered questions — from the denizens of the “lamestream” media — ranging from matters of political process to an array of issues facing the nation.

    In an apparent repudiation to those who dismissed her trip as a mere publicity stunt, Palin’s openness with reporters about her intentions to visit Iowa and South Carolina — in addition to her highly scrutinized stop in the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire — lent credence to her repeated assertions that she was indeed seriously considering a White House bid.

    Though Palin and her staff never announced a timeline for the remaining legs of her trip, aides had drafted preliminary itineraries that would have taken her through the Midwest and Southeast at some point this month. But those travel blueprints are now in limbo, RCP has learned, as Palin and her family have reverted to the friendly confines of summertime Alaska, where the skies are currently alight for over 19 hours a day and the Bristol Bay salmon fishing season is nearing its peak.

    As Palin enjoys her sojourn to the 49th state, she has not reconnected with key early-state figures like Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and she may have jeopardized whatever political momentum she gained from her recent reemergence in the 2012 discussion. Her political action committee’s website still greets visitors with a stale banner, announcing the nationwide bus tour beginning “[t]his Sunday, May 29th.”

    Looks like Sarah will NOT be running for President.

    Maybe it was the polling that showed her losing handily to President Obama or the emergence of Michele Bachmann? In any case, she has not quit or been relieved of duties from Fox News and there is little buzz in Arizona where she purchased a home.

  • California,  Flap's California Morning Collection,  Jerry Brown,  John Chiang,  Jon Huntsman,  Poker,  Tobey Maguire

    Flap’s California Morning Collection: June 22, 2011

    A morning collection of links and comments about my home, California.

    California Controller John Chiang decided yesterday afternoon that he would withhold paychecks from California Legislators since they did not pass a “balanced” budget by the deadline as specified by Proposition 25. Now, remember they did pass a budget which was quickly vetoed by Democrat Governor Jerry Brown. This budget was not “balanced” enough for the California Controller.

    Oh well – back to the drawing board.

    However, this is not stopping these same Legislators from soliciting campaign cash this week.

    Monday, Republican Sen. Bill Emmerson was looking to bulk up his campaign chest for re-election next year.

    Tuesday saw nine legislators making the restaurant rounds from Spataro to Chops to Esquire Grill and beyond: Democratic Assemblymen Marty Block, Das Williams and V. Manuel Pérez, and Sen. Curren Price; plus Republican Assembly members Dan Logue, Katcho Achadjian, Chris Norby and Diane Harkey, and Sen. Sam Blakeslee.

    Today, these lawmakers continue the quest: Democratic Assemblymen Ben Hueso, Sandré Swanson and Henry T. Perea and Sen. Noreen Evans; plus Republican Assemblymen Brian Jones and Don Wagner, and Sens. Doug LaMalfa and Mark Wyland.

    Who ever said these POLS would be starving with or without balancing the California budget?

    On to this morning’s California links.

    Tobey Maguire Sued Over Multi-Million Dollar Illegal Poker Game; DiCaprio, Affleck & Damon Involved

    Spider-Man star Tobey Maguire is among more than a dozen high-profile Hollywood celebrities being sued in connection with a mega-millions illegal gambling ring that ran high-stakes underground poker games, Star magazine is reporting exclusively.

    Maguire, 35, won more than $300,000 from a Beverly Hills hedge fund manager who embezzled investor funds and orchestrated a Ponzi scheme in a desperate bid to pay off his monster debt to the star and others, it’s alleged.

    An FBI investigation into Brad Ruderman, the CEO of Ruderman Capital Partners, uncovered how he lost $25 million of investor money in clandestine poker games held on a twice weekly basis in suites at the luxury Beverly Hills hotel, Four Seasons, and the Viper Room on Sunset Boulevard.

    Brown Plots New Budget as California Lawmakers Forfeit Pay for Being Late

    California Governor Jerry Brown has drafted a plan to pass a budget through the Legislature that sidesteps Republicans who blocked a previous effort, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

    Brown’s proposal comes as legislators have been forced to forfeit pay for every day they fail to send a balanced budget to the governor past a June 15 deadline. He vetoed a spending plan sent to him by Democrats last week, saying it used legally doubtful maneuvers and one-time fixes.

    “I’ll be sharing some very specific ideas tomorrow,” Brown said to reporters as he left a meeting with Assembly Democrats yesterday. “There will be several ideas I’ll propose.”

    Timm Herdt: Brown can’t get 4 votes; how can he get 81?

    Legislators, Democrats and Republicans alike, know all that and they simply won’t swallow the bitter medicine that the grown-up Brown says is the only alternative if he doesn’t get the chance to ask voters to weigh in on extending current tax rates.

    From the legislators’ perspective, when compared to their other choices, the idea of muddling through for another year without solving the state’s chronic fiscal problems doesn’t seem like such a terrible option.

    Thus far, Brown hasn’t wavered from the plan he put forth in January. But the new fiscal year begins a week from Friday.

    “The next step is the governor’s,” Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, said Monday. “If he wants to suggest a budget with significantly deeper cuts to education, health care and public safety, we’ll take a look at it.”

    If Brown is forced to take that step, know this: It won’t be nearly as popular as his veto.

    Huntsman to hold California fundraisers

    Jon Huntsman, fresh off his campaign launch, will host three high dollar California fundraisers next week.

    The former Utah governor will be in San Diego on June 26th, and Orange County and Los Angeles on June 27th. Dinner with Huntsman will cost donors $1,000, while a VIP cocktail reception will cost the primary election maximum of $2,500. Huntsman is also soliciting high dollar bundlers to raise money on his behalf and offering them perks like a seat at the head table and extra VIP tickets for high dollar commitments.

    Enjoy your morning!

  • Afghanistan,  Barack Obama,  Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012

    President 2012: Michele Bachmann on Afghanistan = “Stay the Course”

    As President Obama announces Afghanistan tropp withdrawals, likely GOP Presidential candidate Michele Bachmann takes a different approach. Here is her statement in an interview with The Weekly Standard.

    On Afghanistan, I firmly believe that we are at a point where we’ve got to stay the course, and we’ve got to finish the job. Reports coming out of Helmand right now are positive. … David Petraeus, who wrote the book on counterinsurgency and on the surge strategy, is successfully prosecuting the surge.

    Now, President Obama has not told the story the way President Bush did. President Bush did let the country know where we were at, and I give him a lot of credit because when he was getting all sorts of invective pointed against him, he stood against the world for what he knew to be right in dealing with terrorism. And perhaps no other would have stood the way that he did. I give him great credit for that.

    Now in Afghanistan, we are making great progress. We have to win southern Afghanistan, then we have to go on and win eastern Afghanistan. I believe that we will be victorious, and we’ll end it. I understand why people are frustrated. I completely understand. But I do trust General Petraeus in that effort and in what he is doing over there. And I think that they are doing what we need to do.

    This is a constrast to both President Obama and the GOP’s Mitt Romney. But, it is a safe policy position and what Obama’s general are recommending.

    However, American voters are tired of years of war (on the LEFT and RIGHT) and the massive costs associated with them, especially with Osama Bin Laden’s death.

    And, remember Obama’s troop withdrawals will be modest at best.

  • Twitter

    @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-06-22

    • California Controller John Chiang Says California Budget NOT Balanced and Refuses to Pay Legislators http://bit.ly/mlqRZj #tcot #catcot #
    • Keith Olbermann advertising on MSNBC for his new Current TV gig – Count Down starts in a minute = gag #
    • @mayorsam Do your frakking job! Geez these Legislators are maroons…. in reply to mayorsam #
    • @mayorsam Haha in reply to mayorsam #
    • Food and Drug Administration Will Require More Graphic Cigarette Health Warnings to Deter Smoking http://bit.ly/j6h742 #
    • Dilbert June 6, 2011 – Plan A? http://bit.ly/j7Nc0g #tcot #catcot #
    • President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: No Major Shake Up In GOP Field After New Hampshire Debate http://bit.ly/lJWqWS #tcot #catcot #
    • House 2012: National Republican Congressional Committee Has Twice as Much Cash as the Democrats http://bit.ly/ipc6Vm #tcot #catcot #
    • Pediatricians Issue Warnings About Energy and Sports Drinks for Children http://bit.ly/jJNCOD #
    • President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Upside Down in Gallup Poll 45% Approve Vs 48% Disapprove http://bit.ly/iBHhxs #tcot #catcot #
    • President 2012: Newt Who? http://wapo.st/lbCZ8N #
    • Huntsman Announcement today gives Romney some competition in New Hampshire but where does he go from there? Running for 2016 + probably #
    • Flap’s California Morning Collection: June 21, 2011 http://bit.ly/ivhR5C #tcot #catcot #
    • Note to news sites and blogs that have those annoying social media toolbars at the bottom: I am not going to link or read your posts #tcot #
    • The Morning Drill: June 21, 2011 http://bit.ly/lW5k6h #
    • Is it my imagination, but isn't Jon Huntsman receiving more buzz than Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney received when they announced? Timing? #
    • RE: Sarah Palin will be a useful resource for Michele Bachmann and the RIGHT. I look for Palin to come back with a ru… http://disq.us/2ceu5g #
    • Video: Bristol Palin Dishes the Dirt on Meghan and Cindy McCain http://bit.ly/ldJ475 #tcot #catcot #
    • Day By Day June 18, 2011 – Score http://bit.ly/jEQwGN #tcot #catcot #
    • @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-06-21 http://bit.ly/m0qDxP #tcot #catcot #

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