Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry,  Rudy Giuliani,  Sarah Palin

President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Perry 29% Vs. Romney 17% Paul 13% Bachmann 10% – Perry Now the Front-Runner



According to the latest Gallup Poll.

Shortly after announcing his official candidacy, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has emerged as rank-and-file Republicans’ current favorite for their party’s 2012 presidential nomination. Twenty-nine percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide say they are most likely to support Perry, with Mitt Romney next, at 17%.

These results are based on an Aug. 17-21 Gallup poll, the first conducted after several important events in the Republican nomination campaign, including the second candidate debate, the Iowa Straw Poll, and Perry’s official entry into the race after months of speculation.

Romney and Perry essentially tied for the lead in late July, based on re-computed preferences that include the current field of announced candidates. Gallup’s official July report, based on the announced field at the time and thus excluding Perry, showed Romney with a 27% to 18% lead over Michele Bachmann. Romney enjoyed an even wider, 17-point lead in June over Herman Cain among the field of announced candidates (Gallup did not include Perry among the nominee choices before July).

Perry’s official announcement may have overshadowed the Aug. 13 Iowa Straw Poll, which Bachmann won narrowly over Ron Paul. Neither candidate appears to have gotten a big boost from the straw poll results; Paul’s support was up slightly from July and Bachmann’s down slightly.

What about the GOP demographics?

Perry is a strong contender among key Republican subgroups. Older Republicans and those living in the South show especially strong support for him, at or near 40%. Conservative Republicans strongly favor Perry over Romney, but liberal and moderate Republicans support the two about equally. Perry’s support is also above average among religious Republicans.

The chart:

What is most interesting to me is the weakness of Perry and Romney in the East. Is there room in the field for an Eastern based candidate like former New York Governor George Pataki or former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani? And, who would that hurt the most?

While the eight announced candidates continue to campaign in key early primary and caucus states, Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani are two prominent Republican politicians who have indicated they are still contemplating getting into the race. Palin and Giuliani each receive about 10% of the vote when included in the nomination preference question, with Perry still holding a significant lead over Romney, 25% to 14%, on this measure.

With them in the race, Perry jumps to an 11 point lead over Romney. Also, remember that Rudy was endorsed by Perry in 2008 and that they are friends.

The chart:

So, what does this all mean?

Texas Governor Rick Perry has vaulted into being the front-runner for the GOP Presidential nomination.