• Barack Obama,  Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama 49% Vs Palin 44%

    September 20, 2011 /

    According to the latest McClatchy-Marist Poll.

    A new McClatchy-Marist poll finds that Obama looks increasingly vulnerable in next year’s election, with a majority of voters believing he’ll lose to any Republican, a solid plurality saying they’ll definitely vote against him and most potential Republican challengers gaining on him.

    Even in potential matchups where he leads, Obama in most cases has lost ground to the Republican.

    The biggest gain came for Palin, the former Alaska governor who hasn’t yet announced whether she’ll jump into the fast-changing race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

    After trailing Obama by more than 20 percentage points in polls all year, the new national survey, taken Sept. 13-14, found Palin trailing the president by just 5 points, 49-44 percent. The key reason: She now leads Obama among independents, a sharp turnaround.

    The LEFT doesn’t know who to go after: Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney or now, Sarah Palin.

    We will know about Sarah and/or Chris Christie soon – probably a little prior to October 1, when state GOP Parties must tell the Republican National Committee when they will hold their primary elections/caucuses.

    By a margin of 49 percent to 36 percent, voters said they definitely plan to vote against Obama, according to the poll. Independents by 53 percent to 28 percent said they definitely plan to vote against him.

    With that sentiment permeating the electorate a little more than a year before the general election, most Americans think Obama won’t win a second term.

    By 52 percent to 38 percent, voters think he’ll lose to the Republican nominee, whoever that is. Even among Democrats, 31 percent think the Republican nominee will win.

  • American Economy,  Barack Obama,  Polling

    Poll Watch: Americans Favor Taxing the Rich and Obama’s Job Plan

    September 20, 2011 /

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Americans generally favor raising taxes on higher-income Americans and eliminating tax deductions for some corporations as ways of paying for President Obama’s proposed jobs plan.

    Slightly more than half of rank-and-file Republicans and Republican-leaning independents favor the idea of eliminating certain corporate tax deductions as a way to pay for a jobs creation bill. Forty-one percent of Republicans favor raising taxes on higher-income Americans. Democrats strongly favor both proposals for paying for the cost of the jobs bill.

    Not really a surprise because nobody considers themselves rich. But, how  can anyone possibly think this will lead to job creation?

    Americans Favor Almost All Proposals in Obama’s Jobs Plan

    Americans agree with a number of the job-creation proposals included in Obama’s jobs plan — specifically including the ideas of providing tax cuts to small businesses; providing additional funds for hiring teachers, police officers, and firefighters; and giving tax breaks to corporations for hiring the long-term unemployed. Slightly less than half favor reducing Social Security taxes for workers and employers.

    The chart:

    So, what does this all mean?

    This is the second Gallup survey conducted in the last two weeks showing that the American public broadly supports Obama’s jobs plan. A majority of Americans interviewed this past weekend believe the plan would help at least a little to create jobs and improve the economy.

    Many of the proposals embedded in the plan receive majority support, and Americans strongly endorse the idea of paying for the plan by raising taxes on higher-income individual taxpayers and by eliminating tax deductions for some corporations. While Republicans are considerably less positive about the potential efficacy of the plan than are Democrats, a majority of the former favor a number of Obama’s proposals, and also favor eliminating tax deductions for corporations to help fund the plan.

    But, the real question is whether these proposals work? Will any jobs be created?

    Popularity may win you votes, but not necessarily produce an improving economy.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for September 19th through September 20th

    September 20, 2011 /

    These are my links for September 19th through September 20th:

    • Highlights from the Full Tilt Ponzi Lawsuit – WSJ – As our colleague Alexandra Berzon is reporting, the government today said online-poker website Full Tilt cheated players out of their money. In part, an amended lawsuit from the government said Full Tilt claimed to hold money from players’ bank accounts that was being used instead to pay profits to Full Tilt’s owners and for other purposes.

      Here are a few highlights from the government complaint. (And read the government’s amended lawsuit here):

      * Disguised payments from banks: “The principals of the Poker Companies…deceived or directed others to deceive United States banks and financial institutions into processing billions of dollars in payments for the Poker Companies, by, among other things, arranging for the money received from United States gamblers to be disguised as payments to hundreds of non-existent online merchants and other non-gambling businesses…” the lawsuit said.

      In part, the lawsuit says some of the defendants tricked Visa and Mastercard — which had blocked payments to gambling sites — by directing “others to apply incorrect transaction codes…and create the false appearance that the transactions were completely unrelated to internet gambling.” The lawsuit says an Absolute Poker document from 2007 identified 20 Internet shopping websites — including petfoodstore.biz and bedding-superstore.tv — used as fronts for credit-card transactions.

      * Shifting money: “[I]n or about the summer of 2010, Full Tilt Poker’s payment processing channels were so disrupted that the company faced increasing difficulty attempting to collect funds from players in the United States. Rather than disclose this fact, Full Tilt Poker simply credited players’ online gambling accounts with money that had never actually been collected from the players’ bank accounts.  Full Tilt Poker allowed players to gamble with — and lose to other players — this phantom money that Full Tilt Poker never actually collected or possessed.”

    • U.S. Chamber Sues NLRB to Block Notification Rule – The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the South Carolina Chamber of Commerce today filed a lawsuit against the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) challenging the Board’s new rule requiring businesses to post notices explaining employees' rights to unionize. The Chamber’s lawsuit alleges that the misguided NLRB rule violates federal labor and regulatory laws as well as the First Amendment. The case, Chamber of Commerce, et al. v. National Labor Relations Board, et al. is in the U.S. District Court of South Carolina.

      “The NLRB has no authority to impose any of these requirements,” said Robin Conrad, executive vice president of the National Chamber Litigation Center, the Chamber’s public policy law firm. “This is nothing more than labor regulation run amok. Adding insult to injury, the Board’s new rule violates the First Amendment by forcing employers to use their own resources to post the NLRB’s pro-union message on the company’s own property.”

      The Chamber’s lawsuit alleges that the NLRB’s final rule regarding Notification of Employee Rights Under the National Labor Relations Act (“Notification Rule”) violates the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA), the Administrative Procedure Act (APA), the Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA), and the First Amendment. Significantly, the rule creates a new “unfair labor practice,” exposing businesses to significant and costly liability for failure to comply. The Rule — which applies to virtually all private employers in the United States — becomes effective on November 14, 2011.

      “At a time when the private sector is striving to create desperately needed new jobs, it is disappointing to see that the NLRB is imposing new and unnecessary regulations on employers,” said Randy Johnson, the Chamber’s senior vice president for Labor, Immigration, and Employee Benefits. “The latest rule is part of the NLRB’s pattern of tipping the scale in favor of unions, at the expense of employers and employees alike.”

      According to the Chamber’s lawsuit:

      • Nowhere does the NLRA give the NLRB authority to coerce employers to post such notifications, or to impose onerous penalties for those who fail to post the notices.
      • In violation of the APA, the rule arbitrarily and capriciously excludes from the mandatory notice a description the fundamental rights of employees to be free of compulsory union membership and compulsory union dues.
      • The NLRB violated the RFA by failing to properly assess the significant economic impact the rule would have on small businesses.
      • The rule violates the First Amendment by compelling employers to post the NLRB’s ideological views on unionizing.

    • Feds Call Full Tilt Poker A Massive Ponzi Scheme – Manhattan’s U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara claimed on Tuesday that Full Tilt Poker and its board of directors operated the company “as a massive Ponzi scheme against its own players.”

      Federal prosecutors in Manhattan said on Tuesday they were filing legal papers as part of a civil money laundering complaint that alleged Full Tilt Poker improperly used funds of online poker players to pay members of its board of directors, including famous poker players Howard Lederer and Christopher “Jesus” Ferguson, $440 million since April 2007.

      Bharara announced the filing of a motion to amend a forfeiture and civil money laundering complaint that was filed in April, alleging that Full Tilt and board members Lederer, Ferguson and Rafael Furst, together with Full Tilt CEO Ray Bitar, defrauded poker players out of some $300 million by not maintaining funds at the company sufficient to repay players.

      “Full Tilt was not a legitimate poker company, but a global Ponzi scheme,” Bharara said in a statement. “Full Tilt insiders lined their own pockets with funds picked from the pockets of their most loyal customers while blithely lying to both players and the public alike about the safety and security of the money deposited.”

      Federal prosecutors have drawn up an amended complaint that names Bitar, Lederer, Ferguson and Furst, adding them to the original complaint which was filed seeking $3 billion from Full Tilt Poker and an unrelated poker company, PokerStars. The proposed amended complaint claims that in 2008 and 2009 Full Tilt sent emails to its players and posted messages on online poker message boards, assuring players that “unlike some companies in our industry, we completely understand and accept that your account money belongs to you, not Full Tilt Poker.” But the new complaint claims that the company did not have enough funds to repay players and that by March 31 Full Tilt only had $60 million or so in its bank accounts while owing $390 million to players around the world, including $150 million in the U.S.

      Federal prosecutors claim that Full Tilt’s board members got rich because the company used player funds to pay them massive amounts of money that largely was transferred to their accounts in Switzerland and other overseas locations. Specifically, the feds allege that Bitar pocketed $41 million and Lederer got $42 million. Jesus Ferguson allegedly was allocated $87 million in distributions and received at least $25 million, federal prosecutors claim.

    • Want to Ditch the Twinkies and Other High Caloric Food – Feed Your Brain? | Smiles For A Lifetime – Temporary (Locum Tenens) Dentistry – Want to ditch the Twinkies? Here is an easy way to do it…..sort of…..:
    • Flap’s California Morning Collection: September 20, 2011 » Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Morning Collection: September 20, 2011
    • Flap’s Dentistry Blog: Report: More Testing Needed at Dayton VA Medical Center Over Infection Control Dental Clinic Flap – The Dayton VA Medical Center Dental Clinic Flap continues…..:
    • Shocker: Obama and Buffett Are Wrong on Tax Rates Paid By Millionaires | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Shocker: Obama and Buffett Are Wrong on Tax Rates Paid By Millionaires #tcot #catcot
    • @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-09-20 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-09-20 #tcot #catcot
    • President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 49% Vs Obama 47%, Obama 50% Vs. Perry 45% | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 49% Vs Obama 47%, Obama 50% Vs. Perry 45%:
    • NV-Sen: Dean Heller 48% Vs. Shelly Barkley 42% | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – NV-Sen: Dean Heller 48% Vs. Shelly Barkley 42% #tcot #catcot
    • Flap’s Links and Comments for September 19th on 08:25 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Links and Comments for September 19th on 08:25 #tcot #catcot
    • Overstock.com Not Pleased with Amazon.com California Internet Sales Tax Legislative Compromise » Flap’s California Blog – Overstock.com Not Pleased with Amazon.com California Internet Sales Tax Legislative Compromise
    • Does Diabetes Increase Alzheimer’s Disease Risk? | Smiles For A Lifetime – Temporary (Locum Tenens) Dentistry – Does Diabetes Increase Alzheimer’s Disease Risk?
  • Barack Obama,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: 39% Approval Rating for Obama is the Lowest of His Presidency

    September 20, 2011 /

    President Barack Obama and first lady Michelle Obama walks down the stairs from Air Force One on their arrival at JFK International Airport, Monday, Sept., 19, 2011 in New York

    According to the latest Marist Poll.

    President Barack Obama faces a litany of bad news.  The president’s job approval rating, his favorability, and his rating on the economy have hit all-time lows.  To compound matters, three in four Americans still believe the nation is in a recession and the proportion who thinks the country is moving in the wrong direction is at its highest point in more than a decade.

    According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, the president’s approval rating is at 39% among registered voters nationally, an all-time low for Mr. Obama.  For the first time a majority — 52% — disapproves of the job he is doing in office, and 9% are unsure.

    “President Obama needs to reboot his presidency,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Although numbers like these typically spell doom for an incumbent’s re-election prospects, the Republicans in Congress and eventually his GOP opponent could still provide Obama with running room.”

    Reboot?

    Obama better make it quick, these poll numbers spell – one term President.

    Do voters approve of how the president is handling the economy?  Just 33% of registered voters approve of how he is dealing with the nation’s tumultuous financial situation while more than six in ten — 61% — disapprove.  Six percent are unsure.

  • California Citizens Redistricting Commission,  Elton Gallegly

    CA-26: Republican Referendum on Congressional Maps Over?

    September 20, 2011 /

    Flap’s old Congressional District CA-24 and the new one CA-26

    It looks likely.

    Republicans backing a voter referendum to overturn California’s new congressional maps are on the verge of dropping the effort, sources say.

    One reason is a lack of enthusiasm among California’s GOP congressional delegation. One of the newest but most-prominent members of that delegation — Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield — reportedly led those arguing that it wasn’t worth fighting the new maps.

    At a recent meeting of the National Republican Campaign Committee, several strategists argued that the statewide referendum wasn’t a good use of campaign resources. And some noted that the congressional maps, drawn by a voter-approved independent commission, are more favorable to Republicans than they would have been under a Democrat-controlled gerrymander.

    The effort to put the new congressional maps in front of voters was submitted last month and had been cleared for signature gathering, although no committee had been created to raise funds, according to the secretary of state’s office.

    There was no formal announcement that the ballot referendum campaign for the congressional districts was abandoned. However, in such cases groups typically elect to cease signature gathering, causing the measure to fail once the deadline is passed. The referendum’s sponsor, Julie Vandermost, and its attorney did not return phone calls seeking comment.

    At the recent GOP convention in Los Angeles, there were closed-door discussions about the initiative’s failure to gain traction.

    Plain and simple, the supporters of the referendum (whoever they might be i.e. Gallegly, Dreier, Lungren, Miller, Royce, Bilbray) would have to pony up around $2 million or so to qualify the referendum.

    Even if they could do so, and nobody has shown the interest, the California Supreme Court is no slam dunk to draw Congressional Districts that are any more favorable to the GOP, especially all of the delegation.

    The referendum is a colossal waste of campaign resources. Money that the California Republican Party does NOT have.

    So, back over to my Congressman Elton Gallegly who will now decide to either run and run hard in CA-26 or not.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry

    President 2012 GOP South Carolina Poll Watch: Perry 31% Vs. Romney 27% Vs. Bachmann 4%

    September 20, 2011 /

    According to the latest Winthrop University Poll.

    • When asked about Barack Obama’s job performance as president, 40% of all respondents approved, while 50.7% disapproved. Independents—whom many cite as a key factor in the 2012 election–disapproved by 56.5%.
    • Among Republicans/Republican leaners definitely planning to vote in the GOP Primary, Rick Perry—who entered the race for the GOP nod during an appearance in SC—lead Mitt Romney by 30.5% to 27.3%–within the margin of error.
    • When Republicans/Republican leaners who are definitely planning to vote in the Primary were asked who they thought the eventual 2012 Republican nominee would be—regardless of the one they currently supported—Rick Perry was named most frequently, by 35.4%, while 29.4% chose Mitt Romney.
    • Michele Bachmann is polling back to where she was in Winthrop’s April 2011 Poll, when the two frontrunners—Huckabee and Romney—were chosen by 35.7% of Republicans/Republican leaners definitely planning to vote in the GOP Primary. In the new Winthrop Poll, the two frontrunners (Perry and Romney) collectively hold 57.8% of the support from that group.  In absolute terms this means Bachmann is back to where she started in April. In relative terms, she has slipped.
    • Herman Cain’s numbers, among Republicans/Republican leaners definitely planning to vote in the SC Primary, have gone from 2.1% in the  Winthrop April 2001 Poll to 7.7% in this current poll.
    • Among Republicans/Republican leaners, 67.8% said they did not consider themselves members of the Tea Party movement, but 74.4% of the same group said they generally agree with the Tea Party’s principles.
    • Among Republicans/Republican leaners who are definitely planning on voting in the GOP Primary in SC, 59.9% said that it was more important to select a Republican presidential nominee who matched their beliefs, while 33.5% in this category disagreed, saying it was more important to select a candidate who could beat President Obama in 2012.
    • Among Republicans/Republican leaners, 74.7% feel the term “socialist” describes President Obama very well or well.
    • Among Republicans/Republican leaners, almost 30% believe President Obama is a Muslim.
    • Among Republicans/Republican leaners, 36% continue to believe the president was either probably, or definitely, born in another country. Even though a long-form birth certificate for the president was produced between the Winthrop April 2011 Poll and now—showing he was born in Hawaii—just 5.2% fewer respondents now believe Obama was born outside the country than those back in April (36% now vs. 41.2 % in April).
    • Among Republicans/Republican leaners, 62.4% identify the economy/financial crisis and jobs/ unemployment as the biggest problems facing the U.S.

    It is a Perry Vs. Romney race in South Carolina. Ed Rollins statement yesterday that Michele Bachmann is a one trick pony candidate in Iowa appears to be true.

    Now, how will an endorsement of Senator Jim DeMint and Governor Nikki Haley affect the race?

  • Barack Obama,  Taxes,  Warren Buffett

    Shocker: Obama and Buffett Are Wrong on Tax Rates Paid By Millionaires

    September 20, 2011 /


    The Wall Street Journal makes short work of Warren Buffett (“Buffett Rule”) and President Obama’s arguments that millionaires are not paying their “fair share”

    So here we are back at the same old political stand, though even Mr. Obama concedes that today those he routinely calls “millionaires and billionaires” pay at least some tax. The President’s complaint, echoing billionaire Warren Buffett, is that too many billionaires pay a lower rate than regular salary earners. So even as he endorsed tax reform in general yesterday, Mr. Obama insisted that one of his reform “principles” is that people who make more than $1 million must pay a higher tax rate than middle-class earners.

    There’s one small problem: The entire Buffett Rule premise is false, as the nearby table shows. In 2008, the last year for which such data are available, the IRS reports that those who made more than $1 million in adjusted gross income paid an average income tax rate of 23.3%.

    That’s slightly lower than the 24.1% rate paid by those making between $500,000 and $1 million, probably because the richest are like Mr. Buffett and earn more from capital gains and dividends. The rate for a relative handful of the rich—400 people—fell to 18%, the modern equivalent of Barr’s Gang of 21. But nearly all millionaires still paid a rate that is more than twice the 8.9% average rate paid by those earning between $50,000 and $100,000, and more than three times the 7.2% average rate paid by those earning less than $50,000. The larger point is that the claim that CEOs are routinely paying lower tax rates than their secretaries is Omaha hokum.

    If Mr. Obama really wants all of these people to pay even more in taxes, there are only two ways to do so. One is to raise tax rates on capital gains, dividends and other investment income that is taxed at 15% and represents a great deal of income for the wealthy. This is probably Mr. Buffett’s tax secret, though to our knowledge he hasn’t released his returns to the public.

    Read all of the piece.

    Most pundits acknowledge that President Obama’s speech yesterday was more for his re-election than plausible policy that can actually be signed into law.

    Obama sold his “Hope and Change” in 2008, but he and Warren Buffett will have a harder time selling their class warfare.

  • Twitter

    @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-09-20

    September 20, 2011 /

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